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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#301

Post by HenriTEL »

dave_sullivan wrote: post #6
beebmam wrote: post #3

It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.

> I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware. As compared to AMD or Intel? I wish there was real competition to Nvidia but there isn't. I'm not a fan of their defacto monopoly but they do have the best product on the market and their competition has been asleep for 10 years. AMD and Intel barely knew what deep learning was 10 years ago (and certainly did not appreciate the oppor…

Yep, I remember 8 years ago Intel trying to sell us their CPU solutions for AI. It was hard to make things work and in the end performance were not there. We were comparing against consumer gpu like the GTX 1080.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#302

Post by __loam »

saberience wrote: post #281
__loam wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't take financial advice from hacker news. Go to the bogleheads wiki, get a handle on your personal finances, then invest using a standard 3 fund spread in index funds. Picking individual stocks is just gambling.

Don't take this advice unless you want massively subpar returns. The idea that picking individual companies is "gambling" is quite frankly ridiculous. The information around NVidia being a great company has been around for years and years and was obvious to anyone who took a look at the company performance. The same is true for companies like Netflix or Shopify. I invested in all three of the these companies for the…

A lot of shit can happen to individual companies that is unanticipated or unlucky. For example, Boeing had been a pillar of American engineering for a long time. We had no reason to doubt that the producer of one of the most prolific and reliable jet liners would ever have any issues, but then it did. The facts are that it is incredibly hard to predict the trajectory of individual companies even with insider information. The hedge against acts of God is diversification, and the best way to do that is index funds.

Frankly your advice of do your own research and only invest in "good" companies is incredibly irresponsible advice. That you survived and did well is not proof that your strategy is good, just that you in particular are lucky. The most reliable way to grow and preserve wealth is diversity.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#303

Post by __loam »

FredPret wrote: post #176
__loam wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't take financial advice from hacker news. Go to the bogleheads wiki, get a handle on your personal finances, then invest using a standard 3 fund spread in index funds. Picking individual stocks is just gambling.

This is great advice for most. But the more people who do this, the more overvalued the indexes will become, and the more capital-starved the non-index companies will become (even though they are still very good businesses!).

Don't hate the player, hate the game.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#304

Post by benreesman »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #216
benreesman wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t have hard evidence of this, which makes it a thought experiment and not an assertion. Big-cap tech is utterly notorious for some of the worst anti-trust violations and other cartel-style behavior of any sector. This goes back as least as far as “Wintel” in the 90s and probably further that I didn’t watch up close. Suffice it to say that the Justice Department is extremely disincentivized to go after domestic…

To be honest this just sounds like a bunch of talking points stuck together, can you write a credible argument based on known case-law/precedent/etc... if you have a legal angle to critique?

I’m saying that we have “deregulated” big-cap tech to the point of not enforcing laws that we enforced even a decade ago. This is analogous to the last time a sector 100% captured the regulators which was high finance in the Greenspan era last time. Ended poorly.

The likely height of big-cap tech regulation was the regulated monopoly of ATT/Bell Labs/Western Digital all through the 20th century.

I prefer the outcomes in that era to the present status quo.

You can agree or disagree, and disagreeing is simple: “I prefer these outcomes because…”. I welcome such disagreement. And FWIW I’m not one of the many people who downvoted you: but they were justified in doing so because you moved a comparison of policies and their outcomes into a more abstract space of 1-bit generalizations, e.g. “talking points” vs “law/precedent”. I gave examples, it’s public record and trivially Googleable.

You didn’t fail to understand my point, you didn’t like it and took a cheap shot.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#305

Post by fauigerzigerk »

panick21_ wrote: post #299
fauigerzigerk wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what changes to the law do you propose? None of the little annoyances that Nvidia is occasionally creating amount to anything that could have resulted in their current dominance in AI processing. They made a good product. The competition is responding too slowly. And they got lucky with this crazy (in a good way) AI boom. I don't see how this could possibly be outlawed or why you would even want to. It will resolv…

How about right-to-repair. How about forcing better access, documented, attributable firmware. Open Drivers for Linux. The government as a big costumers could demand these things, even without having a low. The military should demand these things to be open for various reasons. I think Nvida can still make plenty of money in such a world. In cases where an interface has absurdly high value for society if its a standa…

>How about right-to-repair. How about forcing better access, documented, attributable firmware. Open Drivers for Linux.

How would that have stopped Nvidia from dominating the AI market?

>The government as a big costumers could demand these things, even without having a low. The military should demand these things to be open for various reasons.

I agree that governments should use APIs with multiple competing implementations (or one truly open source implementation) where possible. This could make a difference in some cases, but I doubt it would have had a big impact in this particular case as demand for GPGPU is overwhelmingly coming from the private sector.

>In cases where an interface has absurdly high value for society if its a standard, the government could also 'buy' that and open it up. Just like they do with other infrastructure.

Agreed, but is there a legal reason why AMD and others are not allowed to create a clean room implementation of CUDA? Haven't they done exactly that with ZLUDA (which they have now defunded)?

I thought not supporting CUDA was more like a failed strategic move by competitors to prevent CUDA from becoming an industry standard.

I think we agree on all the relevant principles. I just don't see how any of these principles make a big difference in this particular case.

Also, I don't see the Nvidia situation as particularly problematic. They are not too entrenched to unseat. Some of their biggest customers (themselves huge oligopolists) are shaping up to be their biggest competitors.

Most of AI processing will be inference, not training. Bringing the costs down is absolutely key for broad AI use. My bet is that the hardware margins will end up being slim.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#306

Post by FirmwareBurner »

iraqmtpizza wrote: post #261
selectodude wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you work in tech in the United States? Congratulations, you’re one of the wealthiest people on the planet. That’s one hell of a market advantage.

Nothing like what it would have been without a non-stop flood of H-1Bs

Then offshore offices would be more and larger. You can't really stop capital flight by banning migration. Corporations are more mobile than workers.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#307

Post by jgalt212 »

throw0101b wrote: post #90
jgalt212 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

agreed, it's very high, but with M2 growing again such outlandish valuations seem sustainable. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

> agreed, it's very high, but with M2 growing again such outlandish valuations seem sustainable. You know whose M2 has also been rising for decades ? Japan's. And yet for most of that time the Nikkei has been flat (even negative): * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17sx4 China's M2 has also been going up steadily: * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MYAGM2CNM189N What has the Shanghai Stock Exchange (index) been…

you're missing the investor preferences bit. You could print $7T or whatever crazy amount Sam Altman wants, and if everyone puts that money under their mattress instead of stocks or spending, there will be no observable effect on the real or financial economy. In short, the transmission mechanism of money creation to real effects is laggy and and somewhat unpredictable. e.g. why NVDA and not gold?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#308

Post by jgalt212 »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #227
jgalt212 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what matters for P/E ratios is the risk free rate Where's the research showing the empirical relationship between P/E ratios and the risk free rate? Also, we are living in a a time of unprecedented monetary aggregate growth (for the US at least). I posit his why the yield curve has been inverted for so long and yet there is no recession in sight. The predictive power of asset prices seemingly no longer exists.

There's a ton of it: here's one person's regression. You can find the same in academic papers (although economics papers don't exactly deserve that label). https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/sp500pe-vs-inte... It's also just common sense if you understand company valuation.

It's not 1:1, and only fits over long periods of time. Furthermore, none of those studies encompass the great money printing period of COVID, and post COVID. And most of those studies model the 10Y rate vs stocks. The 10Y rate is not the risk free rate.

In 2000 the SP500 PE was 40, and fed funds was 6%. it's low 20s now, and fed funds is 5.25%

studies over more recent times have shown this correlation break down. It's probably the reason Ray Dalio retired.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#309

Post by iraqmtpizza »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #306
iraqmtpizza wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing like what it would have been without a non-stop flood of H-1Bs

Then offshore offices would be more and larger. You can't really stop capital flight by banning migration. Corporations are more mobile than workers.

Nope. H-1Bs allow bringing in people from a dozen countries and having them together in an American office. Moving the company to a worse tax and legal environment with worse latency and worse food and weather and entertainment and prestige doesn't mean those workers will all leave their home countries and move there instead. Nor would the locals necessarily even allow that.

EDIT: bro, you're the one that said corporations are mobile, not me. secondly, all of my points still apply to a satellite office. where the headquarters is or where it's incorporated is irrelevant. thirdly, if they still do significant business in the US then the US maintains massive leverage over them anyway. so, try again.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#310

Post by dns_snek »

matwood wrote: post #270
refurb wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable This is true. It's like blaming the company for being successful. "Stop making products that are so much better than any other product". I'm not sure we want that?

Not dissimilar from the conversations around Apple. They have made products so much better than any of the competitors people want to force them to change.

People want Apple to change because they can't handle Apple making such amazing products? That's certainly a brand new take. Elaborate?
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