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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#271

Post by ein0p »

linksnapzz wrote: post #121
ein0p wrote: post #91

As much as I’d like to say it’s overpriced, its only potential competitor, AMD, is even more overpriced with an eye watering P/E of 324 as of right now, three times that of NVIDIA. Such numbers are stark raving insanity for hardware companies. For comparison, Apple, fully in possession of the world’s most valuable brand, and a gigantic money printer powered by a loyal, billion+ user strong customer base, and a deep p…

"Nowhere to go but up!"

Up? Idk, I certainly don't have the nerve to buy into a position at this kind of P/E. But they don't need to run faster than the bear, and their next best competitor has the agility of a stoned sloth when it comes to the software side of things.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#273

Post by outside415 »

Retric wrote: post #178
magicalist wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s not that founders are more skilled, it’s that successful ones who stick around have different priorities. The long term performance of their existing stock is worth more than hitting targets. We're still talking about the current first derivative of their stock price. Let's not go overboard reading those tea leaves.

The market is pricing in those tea leaves. Look at the P/E ratios of Nvidia (95) and Facebook (31) vs Apple (29) and Google (25).

PE is stupid. at least do forward PE or DCF... cmon.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#274

Post by AnthonyMouse »

ksec wrote: post #264
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general you want to upgrade your oldest fab to the newest node, or build a new one, instead of shutting down a recent one and taking it out of production even though there is still demand for that node. There are still plenty of things being produced in fabs with older technology than that . Global Foundaries is the third largest in the world and they're offering 12nm or worse. People buy it because not everything…

Yes. But that is specific to GF and TSMC when you have recurring customer on older node. Which is not true for Samsung Foundry.

Why is it different? Wouldn't Samsung prefer to build new fabs rather than retrofitting old ones given the demand, since they would then have more customers and make more money?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#275

Post by imhoguy »

eastbound wrote: post #233
acchow wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big tech and AI startups would buy all the 4090's in existence if they had NVLink. You would not be able to find one for gaming without a multiple x markup

So we’re deeply hampering our AI startups, limiting their growth and possibilities by jacking up the prices x10, to reserve some silicium only for gamers which could perfectly be used for AI? Maybe gamers can wait and the next technological leap should have priority?

> jacking up the prices x10

AI is goldrush and Nvidia is selling golden shovels.

They try to play it longterm though. Goldrush ends at some point, if they upset "gardeners" gamers, these may be jumping onto AMD or even Intel shovels already. That was already the case during Bitcoin goldrush.

But I wouldn't be also surprised this is a plan agreed at closed door meetings between big corporations. They may want to just kill any independent AI advantage, and force everyone to their cloud walled gardens. Future will tell.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#276

Post by aurareturn »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #267
aurareturn wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And anyway who is talking about the bottom end? The question is why they don't produce more of e.g. the RTX 3070, which is on the old Samsung 8LPP process, has fewer transistors than the RTX 4060, is faster, and is still selling for a higher price. What do you think? I gave you my reasons. Why don't you take a crack at your own question? There has to be a logical business reason right? Customers who want petroleum ar…

> Why don't you take a crack at your own question? There has to be a logical business reason right? Selling 30M GPUs with a huge margin is more profitable than selling 60M GPUs with a modest margin, and they can point to Bitcoin or AI as an excuse. But also, we're talking about them crippling the cards "for gamers" so there will be cards "for gamers" -- the premise of this has to be that they're supply constrained (a…

I think you answered your own question, really.

Although I would modify your statement slightly:

Original: Selling 30M GPUs with a huge margin is more profitable than selling 60M GPUs with a modest margin.

Modified: Nvidia and AMD must sell at a higher ASP because the market for discrete GPUs has shrunk from 60m to 30m/year.

That's your answer! It's what I've been arguing for since my very first post. It isn't Nvidia and AMD's choice to have the market shrink in terms of raw volume. It's because many midrange gamers have largely moved onto laptops, phones, and consoles for gaming since 2010. The remaining PC gamers are willing to pay more for discrete GPUs. Hence, both Nvidia and AMD don't bother making compelling midrange GPUs.

I remember midrange GPUs that have great value such as the AMD HD 4850. I don't think those days are ever coming back.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#277

Post by saberience »

edward28 wrote: post #126
dheera wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except AMD produces nothing remotely close to the compute capability of an H100. they only compete at the gaming card level.

They released the MI300 which beats a H100 but is close to a H200.

Actually, this hasn't been shown yet. AMD showed some "on paper" specs which could "theoretically" be faster than a H100, but they didn't show any practical tests which could be recreated by third parties. Also, some of the tests AMD ran on H100's were deliberately not using the correctly optimized software, massively slowing down the H100 performance...

As a result there is a lot of sceptism as to whether it's actually faster in real world scenarios. There are a few articles explaining this situation. Here is one: https://www.forbes.com/sites/karlfreund/2023/12/13/breaking-...

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#278

Post by khazhoux »

latchkey wrote: post #244
khazhoux wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Azure, Oracle, Meta, Tesla, Hot Aisle... all buying up MI300x. You really should disclose that you’re a founder when you mention your company like that

It is in my profile. Pretty well disclosed imho.

It is a norm here and a common courtesy to let people know whenever one mentions their own company, product, or project. Otherwise, we don’t know that a comment might be self-marketing.

And yes, yours was an instance of self-marketing, even if unintentional, by name-dropping your company alongside power players like Meta and Tesla. You put yourself on people’s radar as a GPU-intensive company.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#279

Post by smsm42 »

Could somebody explain to me what is the moat that prevents somebody else from taking on Nvidia? OK, they make GPUs. Why somebody else can't make GPUs? AMD took on Intel, Google took on Microsoft and Apple - is GPU market somehow harder to enter? I mean, we're talking piles of money from the looks of it - Amazon and Google do a ton of stuff, and NVidia only does (roughly speaking) one thing - and that thing is not even directly consumed by the customers, so "it's hard to migrate" shouldn't be a huge deal since it's not the customers that would be doing the migration. So what are the barriers that make Nvidia unique?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#280

Post by xyst »

With the recent story of openai pitching VCs for a collective $5-7 trillion dollars and a GPU manufacturer becoming more “valuable” than diverse companies such as Amazon or Google.

I am thinking this market is due for a massive correction. It’s not sustainable and built on the “promise” or con it will continue to skyrocket YoY.

Just like the cryptocurrency/digital currency craze. This one (artificial intelligence) will also come crashing down. I give it maybe 1-2 years at this rate. We will look back and these types of stories will be the red flags people will point to when the market is about to sink.

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