121–130 of 379 posts
As much as I’d like to say it’s overpriced, its only potential competitor, AMD, is even more overpriced with an eye watering P/E of 324 as of right now, three times that of NVIDIA. Such numbers are stark raving insanity for hardware companies. For comparison, Apple, fully in possession of the world’s most valuable brand, and a gigantic money printer powered by a loyal, billion+ user strong customer base, and a deep p…
When you look at the moat for these companies, is it really justified? I just think about ARM and Intel/AMD. I find it hard to believe that existing GPUs with their memory bandwidth considerations are optimal architecture and that in 20y we will have the same compute model But the last time I did any work with cuda was a decade ago, so very rough ideas here
Apple's laptops for example are pretty popular with people into LLMs. Why? They are good laptops with decent enough hardware and lots of people have them. The key point with that is that there's no nvidia hardware on Apple's platform and that a lot of work seems to be going into making sure Apple silicon is supported well in all relevant libraries and tools. And they are of course not the only ones. A lot of the bigger AI companies are using their own chips and platforms. Tesla, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. And then there are Intel and AMD that are equally eager to grab more of the AI market.
Add to that the emerging open source ecosystem around LLMs and you have a nice recipe for vendor neutral libraries used by world+dog and users simply cherry picking the market for the best hardware that can run those libraries.
Nvidia has enjoyed a nice software moat for the last years but it won't last. Everyone is trying to engineer around them currently.
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My statements based on high level meetings I had at the time with all 3 companies when I had started an early neural network PaaS company and was looking for them to invest. Nvidia knew what they were talking about and were already moving that direction, Intel heard about deep learning somewhere but didn't believe there was anything there, and AMD didn't know anything about anything.
Seems like a tale already told on "Only The Paranoid Survive" by Andrew Grove. Now Jensen should add some chapters. BTW I just discovered that their web page/brand is fully invested in AI, the title is: "World Leader in Artificial Intelligence Computing". I am curious about your PaaS because we were analyzing that business for fun first. A small thread here in HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39329764
Here's an old tutorial video of the product: https://youtu.be/V2q9hVdi80w
We were doing cool things and on the cutting edge but ultimately couldn't make a business out of it and weren't talking to the right people.
Apple is doing a smart move in de-risking that possibility so far [1]. But Nvidia has only just become more dependent on TSMC.
The stock price looks like another great time to hit that sell button as everyone from your uber drivers and plumbers are chatting about Nvidia's stock going from all time high valuation, stock price, revenue and no competition (yet).
When a single company is carrying the stock market, it just takes one miss and the market gets upset.
[0] https://www.ft.com/content/ffbb39a8-2eb5-4239-a70e-2e73b9d15... or https://archive.is/MAZYk
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-05/inside-ap...
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Most of the AI and ML related programming uses frameworks that abstract away what brand of GPU you are using. They could care less whether it is nvidia or AMD.
except AMD produces nothing remotely close to the compute capability of an H100. they only compete at the gaming card level.
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I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…
"You're only upset because they "
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I’m not sure I would bet an ads/spyware company with admittedly deep deep pockets would beat a specialized hyper focused company at its core business, especially as they have deeper pockets now with 30 years of experience in the sub sector. If Nvidia were wandering in the desert like Cisco I could believe it. But Nvidia isn’t, and I don’t believe Google, Amazon, or others will beat Nvidia at their own game. (Given my…
TPU is a thing and well competitive already for a long time?..
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INAL. Antitrust is not against monopoly, but monopoly "abuse". MS is free to make an OS which everyone wants and free to be a monopoly. When they tried to leverage it to gain market share in the distinct market of browser and media players it became a problem. So till ASML starts abusing the position they should be good legally.
Watch out, different jurisdictions have different 'anti-trust' laws. And, especially in common law jurisdictions, interpretations of a law can also change over time.
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>Given my time in FAANG, I also speak from inside knowledge of how deeply f’ed these companies are Please tell us more of your expertise and deep insight, FAANG employee #1,908,680. Google has developed their own chips. Apple has developed their own chips. It’s really not that hard if your pockets are deep enough or the bottom line checks out. When Apple launches their AI offering this year, it’s not going to need NV…
They have, over many years and not against a company at the top of their game and with considerable help. Apples move is an ARM chip, not an Apple chip. Googles chips are competitive in spaces like network infrastructure. TPUs are illustrative of their inability to provide a viable alternative. Apple isn’t going to launch with an Nvidia killing alternative, I’ll bet you $1,908,680 it’s backed by Nvidia. They will lik…
Also, Apple has a longstanding dislike for Nvidia and even if they weren't going to design their own chips at launch, they could be using AMD.