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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#171

Post by mlyle »

throwup238 wrote: post #142
latchkey wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Azure, Oracle, Meta, Tesla, Hot Aisle... all buying up MI300x. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/meta-and-microsoft-to-buy-am... https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-scores-two-big-wins-or... https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...

“Meta and Microsoft say…” “Oracle is set to use…” “Elon Musk implies…” Not one of them have actually bought anything. AMD is just muddying the waters by grouping HPC sales with AI. It’s nonsense. Edit: I see you’ve got a startup on MI300x hardware. Now it makes sense, I guess - you need to believe. Good luck!

> Not one of them have actually bought anything.

AMD isn't shipping in large volume yet, but MI300x instances can be spun up in preview on Azure today with availability ramping up. Microsoft has absolutely bought a lot of MI300x.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#172

Post by aurareturn »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #161
aurareturn wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why wouldn't they just make more of them? The excuse is supposed to be fab capacity, but the 3070 has better performance than the 4060 etc. and is built on the older process which should no longer be in short supply. There is actually very little margins in the midrange consumer discrete GPU market. The market for discrete GPUs have been shrinking since the mid 2000s.[0] Most GPUs are sold as integrated such as…

> Most GPUs are sold as integrated such as SoCs and in consoles nowadays. But those are mostly AMD, and doesn't really have anything to do with what features someone puts on their discrete gaming cards, except insofar as it implies gamers don't need the cards some amateur ML hobbyist might buy. > In a shrinking market, the midrange and low-end products will cease to be profitable. That's assuming the products have hi…

Customers who want midrange or low end GPUs are price sensitive. Therefore, midrange and low end GPUs are a low margin business. Hence, there's little to no reason to provide a very compelling product in those categories.

While midrange GPUs are a cut from highend GPUs, they're still significantly more expensive to manufacture than say CPUs, at a transistor to transistor level. Look at an AMD 7950x transistor count, and then an RTX 4060 transistor count. The GPU has ~50% more transistors but sell at half the price. In addition, the GPU requires RAM, a board, circuitry, and a heatsink fan. The margins simply aren't there for lowend GPUs anymore.

Previously, Nvidia and AMD can make it up through volume. But again, the market has gotten much smaller going from 60 million discrete GPUs per year sold to 30 million. That's half!

Based on your logic, AMD should feast on midrange and low end discrete GPU market because Nvidia does not have value products there. But AMD isn't feasting. You know why? Because there's also no profit there for AMD either.

Once you stop thinking like an angry gamer, these decisions start to make a lot of sense.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#173

Post by namlem »

sjwhevvvvvsj wrote: post #168
FredPret wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

If AMDs version of “asleep at the wheel” is them eating Intels lunch for the last few years, I’d hate to see them awake. Intel is weak, and it’s much smarter to put resources into squeezing Intel while they are on the ropes than shift too much focus to ML.

Yeah exactly. AMD has other markets to compete in. Their desktop, laptop, and handheld offerings are incredible right now. I assume they are also going to replace Nvidia for the Switch 2.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#174

Post by magicalist »

Retric wrote: post #152
JoshTko wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a silly take the two largest companies are headed by non founder MBA grads. Each who grew their respective companies ~10x.

Which is underperforming compared to Nvidia. It’s not that founders are more skilled, it’s that successful ones who stick around have different priorities. The long term performance of their existing stock is worth more than hitting targets. Not a guarantee of success, but something to consider.

> It’s not that founders are more skilled, it’s that successful ones who stick around have different priorities. The long term performance of their existing stock is worth more than hitting targets.

We're still talking about the current first derivative of their stock price. Let's not go overboard reading those tea leaves.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#175

Post by sjwhevvvvvsj »

wbsun wrote: post #70
MuffinFlavored wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. If you peel the layers back... isn't the real monopoly ASML?

I am always wondering why ASML hasn’t got any antitrust lawsuits for their monopoly.

the answer is it’s a state sanctioned monopoly which concentrates control of advanced technological processes in the hands of NATO.

ASML is a strategic asset.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#176

Post by FredPret »

__loam wrote: post #162
system2 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unrelated question: Do you have any stocks you are following and expecting to go high soon?

Don't take financial advice from hacker news. Go to the bogleheads wiki, get a handle on your personal finances, then invest using a standard 3 fund spread in index funds. Picking individual stocks is just gambling.

This is great advice for most.

But the more people who do this, the more overvalued the indexes will become, and the more capital-starved the non-index companies will become (even though they are still very good businesses!).

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#177

Post by FredPret »

sjwhevvvvvsj wrote: post #168
FredPret wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

If AMDs version of “asleep at the wheel” is them eating Intels lunch for the last few years, I’d hate to see them awake. Intel is weak, and it’s much smarter to put resources into squeezing Intel while they are on the ropes than shift too much focus to ML.

I’m talking GPUs, not CPUs.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#178

Post by Retric »

magicalist wrote: post #174
Retric wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is underperforming compared to Nvidia. It’s not that founders are more skilled, it’s that successful ones who stick around have different priorities. The long term performance of their existing stock is worth more than hitting targets. Not a guarantee of success, but something to consider.

> It’s not that founders are more skilled, it’s that successful ones who stick around have different priorities. The long term performance of their existing stock is worth more than hitting targets. We're still talking about the current first derivative of their stock price. Let's not go overboard reading those tea leaves.

The market is pricing in those tea leaves. Look at the P/E ratios of Nvidia (95) and Facebook (31) vs Apple (29) and Google (25).

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#179

Post by yCombLinks »

nerdponx wrote: post #170
yCombLinks wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The forward PE is 31 for AMD, and Nvidia is at 33. Apple's forward PE is 26. The market prices are based on future expectations. Nvidia is expected to increase earnings by something like 3x, and AMD by 10X

Apparently, AMD can remain irrational longer than retail investors can remain solvent.

Right, I'm not saying they will hit those projections, that's what they are though

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#180

Post by nealabq »

ergocoder wrote: post #118
llm_trw wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is _one_ other GPU maker.

What the hell is intel doing? I have been holding their stock for a few years now. Where is the moon?

ASML recently delivered their first high-NA lithography system to Intel. While TSMC is being more cautious, hesitating to commit to this very expensive machine. Intel's making a big bet, and it may (or may not) pay off. We'll probably know by the end of 2025.

Intel may end up back on top.

https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2022/intel-and-a...

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/intel-receives-it...

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/tsm...

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