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Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

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Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#141

Post by srackey »

friend_and_foe wrote: post #123
samr71 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans are not singular organisms, we're a colony species. We are evolved for (and thrive in) social groups. These social groups are not just voluntary associations, but are deeply rooted traditions - whether that's based in family, faith, or nation. The problem with Modernity is that the systems and structures that humans have built to ensure continued human flourishing within these deeply rooted social bonds have g…

But that's cultural change, no? I'm trying to get an idea of what "modernity" means in the sense you mean.

Modernity is the sum total of political and economic forces in the present era that are causing this identical cultural change across the planet.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#142

Post by api »

pjc50 wrote: post #126
api wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-every... I'm very much a believer that housing costs are at the root of a whole lot of what's wrong with... everything. It's long past debate and long past time for neighborhoods to come up with a "vision." We need state and national level mandates for zoning reform and density increase, and if you're against it too bad. NIMBYs had 50 years to come up with someth…

What people actually seem to want is the ability to use the planning system to veto their neighbours having children. People vehemently do not want density increases around them or "changes to the character of the neighbourhood", and if driving the birth rate down helps with that goal then they're fine with it.

Yep, and this is what has to be crushed.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#143

Post by thriftwy »

somenameforme wrote: post #133
thriftwy wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can just build . Perhaps the "never lived lavishly, no reason to begin" attitude would have hepled. [1] https://yandex.ru/images/search?text=мурино [2] https://yandex.ru/images/search?text=кудрово [3] https://yandex.ru/images/search?text=парнас [4] https://yandex.ru/images/search?text=филатов%20луг

I completely agree with the attitude, but not necessarily the implementation. Would you want to live in any of those places? Let alone raise a family in one? In the second link, I think the difference between the presumably idealized/proposed [1] version of one of these areas, and what it inevitably turns into [2] demonstrates the issue. So it would probably be reasonably affordable, but only because you'd make it le…

You can buy this one, save for a few years and get a better one, then have children.

Once you get this rolling you can improve your situation every few years.

The problem with "the projects" is that undesirable people get to live there practically for free. But that is not the case in Russia or China. Everybody lives in some sort of high-rises and has a middle class life.

But, you can also absolutely have a kid there as well.

Otherwise, people would love to be able to afford a house or at least a townhouse, but modern economy gets in the way of that wish, especially from scratch.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#144

Post by toomuchtodo »

hahamaster wrote: post #135
toomuchtodo wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Population decline lags affordable property shortages (see Japan [1], where property price declines are following after rural population declines). The results of fertility decisions take years, or even decades, to see (although total fertility rate and annual births is a lower lag indicator). For example, declining school enrollment in the US is from fertility decisions made half a decade ago [2], because that's abo…

If you're waiting for your life to be stable enough to have children, most likely you're never going to have them. As years go by, life becomes more complicated, not less. With or without children. Having children also involves sacrifice, improvisation, unpredictability, suffering... and lots of people are apparently allergic to all of those things.

> Having children also involves sacrifice, improvisation, unpredictability, suffering... and lots of people are apparently allergic to all of those things.

Rightfully so. There is no extra credit for unnecessarily burdening yourself.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#145

Post by rickydroll »

whizzter wrote: post #31
stonemetal12 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what is driving the housing prices up in the Nordics? Population decline would suggest weakening demand. The EU is famous for long lasting housing so lack of new inventory shouldn't hit supply side that hard.

Rising lifespans and immigration has made our population grow despite relatively low fertility. Another huge problem right now is that the high prices has made it tricky for _older_ people to move, a large rent controlled apartment for an retired person is far cheaper than even the smallest new apartments if the lease is changed, so you have tons of retired people with kids that moved out (or should have moved out) l…

Another factor keeping older people in place is that they've put a lot of energy into the yard or their house to make it the way they want it to be. For example, if my mom, a still sharp and active 90-year-old, couldn't live independently, and spend time in her garden, she would probably pass in 2 - 3 months. Expiration after loss of independence and access to the outdoors is a common way to die in my family.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#146

Post by CRConrad »

somenameforme wrote: post #73
pjc50 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden I think this is all that needs to be said on these articles. (There's a lot more that _could_ be said, such as how few actual birthing HN readers there are, but I think the economics is really simple at the root of it.) Besides, even the countries with really the worst outlook and conditions aren't falling all that fast. Russia…

Russia's not a great example to look at. They're one of the only 'Western' countries that's historically actually maintained a healthy fertility rate. The big catch in their numbers is that in the 90s the country turned into a near anarchic hellhole. But they managed to pull out of that and have had a growing fertility rate since 1998, which has been met with an ever widening array of pro-natal incentives, and a gene…

> They're one of the only 'Western' countries that's historically...

...in pretty much no sense of the word a "Western" country.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#147

Post by CRConrad »

irrational wrote: post #48
pjc50 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden I think this is all that needs to be said on these articles. (There's a lot more that _could_ be said, such as how few actual birthing HN readers there are, but I think the economics is really simple at the root of it.) Besides, even the countries with really the worst outlook and conditions aren't falling all that fast. Russia…

Wait, how do you know there are few actual birthing HN readers? How many children have I had?

No idea about you personally, but I'm fairly sure the overwhelming majority of HN readers are men.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#148

Post by CRConrad »

somenameforme wrote: post #100
anonporridge wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hungary recently promised a lifetime income tax break to women who have 4 or more children. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/have-four-or-more-babies-in-... Have any other countries seen such a strong fertility rate bump as Hungary? I haven't seen any long trends that look that promising!

Russia has a pretty interesting one. [1] It's been rising every year since 1998, but it comes with a huge asterisk. They had a good fertility rate (by Western standards at least) up until the 1990s. But the collapse of the Soviet Union and the migration to a market economy in the 90s sent everything into chaos, and the country ended up in defacto anarchy for about a decade. But I still think it's relevant, because it…

> the country ended up in defacto anarchy for about a decade.

Kleptocracy, not anarchy.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#149

Post by CRConrad »

irrational wrote: post #113
toomuchtodo wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does the fertility rate and surveys of people of reproductive age tell us?

Well, the recent studies say nobody is having sex anymore, especially among the younger generations. So, people are not having sex and people are not having children. I’m not sure what that says. If people were having sex without having kids, that would mean something, but that isn’t the reality.

> So, people are not having sex and people are not having children. I’m not sure what that says.

Hey, there could be a connection here! Do we know where children come from?

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#150

Post by CRConrad »

shadowgovt wrote: post #98
bequanna wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t follow. Your original post was saying that it is OK for population decline in the northern countries because it is too expensive to live there. And population growth in other (less productive) countries is fine because it evens out.

Two forces at play here: 1) There's no set "right number" of people who should be living in northern countries, no rule that says we need to replace every emigrant (or unborn person) with an immigrant. If it's too expensive to live up north, maybe just... Fewer people just live up north. The population of Norway, right now, is higher than it's ever been in the country's history. Maybe a population decline looks more…

> the headcount shortfall from lower birth rate will be filled with skilled immigrants who like the climate

NOBODY likes the climate.

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