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Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

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Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#51

Post by somenameforme »

brtkdotse wrote: post #3

The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden. Add a looming climate crisis and a self-fulfillment-oriented culture and you get very few new babies.

One of the big issues in housing is ultra urbanization though, where everybody wants to move into a tiny handful of locations. This just drives housing costs upwards basically without end. This graph of Stockholm's population [1] is just completely bonkers. But beyond this it also creates environments that aren't especially good for raising a family in, at least in general.

[1] - https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/stockholm-pop...

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#52

Post by anonporridge »

AlbertCory wrote: post #18

Hungary did succeed in raising its fertility rate, but in the last few years it's also been falling. https://www.statista.com/statistics/332502/fertility-rate-in... https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?page=&lo... I suspect that a couple years is not enough to draw any conclusions.

Hungary recently promised a lifetime income tax break to women who have 4 or more children. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/have-four-or-more-babies-in-...

Have any other countries seen such a strong fertility rate bump as Hungary? I haven't seen any long trends that look that promising!

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#53

Post by kredd »

beaeglebeached wrote: post #40
kredd wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Upper-middle and upper class aren't having children either though, so my bet is on the latter side of your argument. Huge opportunity costs for having kids before your mid 30s, and afterwards, it's a bit late to have more than a couple kids to have sustainable population numbers. Definitely a bit hypocritical of me, since I'm also a part of the problem who doesn't want to have kids. But, at least for me, it's not wor…

>Upper-middle and upper class aren't having children either though Interesting. In USA fertility is tub / U shaped [0]. Filthy rich just hire nannies and bang away and dirt poor have none to negative opportunity cost [0] https://twitter.com/theHauer/status/1222514313723875332/phot...

Can you elaborate on that? Every statistic I've seen so far looked like even "the filthy rich" don't have enough kids. Obviously you'll get some exceptions that are talked again and again on the media, but that's not the norm.

Even by just looking at my surroundings, I have some friends who make decent money, and they're still on "no kids" train, even though hiring 24/7 help would just cost them pennies.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#54

Post by anonporridge »

brtkdotse wrote: post #49
anonporridge wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real disposable income in Sweden has increased 50% over the last 20 years. https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/the-real-gross-disposabl...

Green is disposable income, orange is cost of apartment housing: https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tonEuOE0IXE/WfpBpIzy8rI/AAAAAAAAF...

So what? Is not disposable income what's left over after you pay your mandatory expenses, like housing?

If real disposable income is rising, then people have more access to non necessary resources than they did before. So, they have more wealth, but are having fewer babies, which is the general trend.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#55

Post by irrational »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #23

Crossposting from my own Reddit comment about the same article: No, it's just that the policies aren't changing fast enough to match the drop in culture pressure/attitudes that used to push people to have kids (especially religious ones). Major things that have pushed people to have kids: * De facto retirement plan / can actually make you richer (sorta) * Cultural/religious pressure * Emotional personal reasons: you…

> Major things that have pushed people to have kids

What about evolutionary pressure - the biological impulse? Or, are we humans post-evolution and have overridden the innate impulse to reproduce?

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#56

Post by bwestergard »

"Rotkirch is exasperated by those who think lower fertility rates should be welcome, given climate change. “Climate change has to be combated now, and if you look at fertility changes, they are long term."

I don't understand Rotkirch's point here. Of course the kinds of population decline we're on track to experience cannot solve the acute climate change crisis, but it can open up the solution space for human civilization in the long term by giving humanity more time to deal with non-renewable resource constraints and earth system boundaries on a timescale of centuries. There are few ecological problems that would not be easier to solve in a century or two if the human population were closer to 1920s levels.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#57

Post by beaeglebeached »

kredd wrote: post #53
beaeglebeached wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Upper-middle and upper class aren't having children either though Interesting. In USA fertility is tub / U shaped [0]. Filthy rich just hire nannies and bang away and dirt poor have none to negative opportunity cost [0] https://twitter.com/theHauer/status/1222514313723875332/phot...

Can you elaborate on that? Every statistic I've seen so far looked like even "the filthy rich" don't have enough kids. Obviously you'll get some exceptions that are talked again and again on the media, but that's not the norm. Even by just looking at my surroundings, I have some friends who make decent money, and they're still on "no kids" train, even though hiring 24/7 help would just cost them pennies.

Most the statistics cut off at ~200-300+k income catch all bucket which drowns out the rich averages. See my source above capturing higher income buckets which pronounce the U.

Near equal (higher) fertility at both extremes might be, but not proof of, the hypothesis the dirt poor and filthy rich are the fertility rate you get when opportunity cost looks near 0.

A bucket you often see stopping at 300+k imo far too low as the lower band of that is usually high stress highly educated long hours professional and small biz owners who have insane opportunity cost to have children.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#58

Post by anovikov »

thriftwy wrote: post #28
anovikov wrote: post #5

Solution is simple and well-known but requires balls: separate childbearing from marriage politically, and treat it as a full-time job. Institute flat tax charged from all adult population and use it to pay salaries to all women (not "families") with children based on number of children without regard to "quality", variating (guaranteed inflation-adjusted till age of 18) salaries, and taxes, according to the birthrat…

You will get downvotes from people who expected to increase quality when improving quantity at the same time.

Was this ever the case? Good people have enough children, they always did and still do, they are well-off, have normal families and normal perception of reproduction. They will always be sufficient to have a ruling class, but never sufficient to have a class to be ruled.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#59

Post by whizzter »

fifteen1506 wrote: post #27
toomuchtodo wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Population decline lags affordable property shortages (see Japan [1], where property price declines are following after rural population declines). The results of fertility decisions take years, or even decades, to see (although total fertility rate and annual births is a lower lag indicator). For example, declining school enrollment in the US is from fertility decisions made half a decade ago [2], because that's abo…

I thought the house-as-an-asset mentality was the most to blame. Are you sure most houses in the Nordics are occupied by the same family most of the time?

Not really, the privately owned stock is divided into privatized rentals (often in condo like associations) and houses. Afaik Houses are free to own (but outside of Germans wanting vacation homes there hasn't been much of an outside influx), most condos on the other hand requires you to have your official residence there (an association might grant temporary rentals but most associations frowns upon too long term rentals and the exceptions are often granted on a yearly basis).

There's other issues though (see my sibling post to GP)

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#60

Post by toomuchtodo »

irrational wrote: post #55
TulliusCicero wrote: post #23

Crossposting from my own Reddit comment about the same article: No, it's just that the policies aren't changing fast enough to match the drop in culture pressure/attitudes that used to push people to have kids (especially religious ones). Major things that have pushed people to have kids: * De facto retirement plan / can actually make you richer (sorta) * Cultural/religious pressure * Emotional personal reasons: you…

> Major things that have pushed people to have kids What about evolutionary pressure - the biological impulse? Or, are we humans post-evolution and have overridden the innate impulse to reproduce?

Robust access to contraceptives allows for the act without the burden of the result (if undesired).

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#contraception

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