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Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

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Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#41

Post by jevoten »

shadowgovt wrote: post #19

I hate to ask a stupid question, but... So what? The housing prices are extraordinary and the cost for people to live so far north is significant. Maybe we don't need a lot of people being born up north. There's certainly enough people on the planet to make up for any headcount-shortfall with immigration (and in Norway in particular, quite a few people born there move away these days because cost of living is so high…

> There's certainly enough people on the planet to make up for any headcount-shortfall with immigration

I'm just glad they're all perfectly interchangeable.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#42

Post by roelschroeven »

In this article, and in the comments here, and in news reporting in general, falling birth rates are generally seen as a problem. Why is that?

I strongly feel we should strive to decrease the amount of people on this planet: less people means less resources needed to feed and to house them. It means less pressure on the planet's ecosystems, less CO2 produced, less pollution.

The only ethical way to get to a lower amount of people is to have less children. We should see falling birth rates as a good thing, not a problem to be solved.

Are falling birth rates a problem for the economy, as the article hints? I can see how that's a problem, but if the economy only works well when the earth's population is ever increasing, that's clearly not sustainable. The future needs to be sustainable, or human kind is not going to have a future.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#44

Post by anonporridge »

brtkdotse wrote: post #3

The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden. Add a looming climate crisis and a self-fulfillment-oriented culture and you get very few new babies.

Real disposable income in Sweden has increased 50% over the last 20 years.

https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/the-real-gross-disposabl...

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#45

Post by gottorf »

roelschroeven wrote: post #42

In this article, and in the comments here, and in news reporting in general, falling birth rates are generally seen as a problem. Why is that? I strongly feel we should strive to decrease the amount of people on this planet: less people means less resources needed to feed and to house them. It means less pressure on the planet's ecosystems, less CO2 produced, less pollution. The only ethical way to get to a lower amo…

> falling birth rates are generally seen as a problem. Why is that?

Anyone who's ever lived in a place (at a city, province, or national level) whose population is dwindling knows exactly why. Opportunities are fewer and people are generally less wealthy[0].

[0]: I mean real wealth, like living in a comfortable home and being able to afford hobbies. Not your 401k balance.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#46

Post by marcosdumay »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #24
TulliusCicero wrote: post #23

Crossposting from my own Reddit comment about the same article: No, it's just that the policies aren't changing fast enough to match the drop in culture pressure/attitudes that used to push people to have kids (especially religious ones). Major things that have pushed people to have kids: * De facto retirement plan / can actually make you richer (sorta) * Cultural/religious pressure * Emotional personal reasons: you…

A few common counterarguments and my responses: Kids don't have to be super expensive! This is true, but it's also true for most people they are. To make them not expensive, you have to avoid a lot of things that most people consider a normal, middle-class part of a regular lifestyle or a middle-class way of raising children. I won't dispute that there are probably smarter low-cost ways to raise kids, but we're talki…

> To make them not expensive, you have to avoid a lot of things that most people consider a normal, middle-class part of a regular lifestyle or a middle-class way of raising children.

Well, you can make the middle-class lifestyle affordable.

It's not Disney vacations that make people give-up on childbirth. It's housing and schooling.

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#47

Post by fulafel »

stonemetal12 wrote: post #14
pjc50 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden I think this is all that needs to be said on these articles. (There's a lot more that _could_ be said, such as how few actual birthing HN readers there are, but I think the economics is really simple at the root of it.) Besides, even the countries with really the worst outlook and conditions aren't falling all that fast. Russia…

But what is driving the housing prices up in the Nordics? Population decline would suggest weakening demand. The EU is famous for long lasting housing so lack of new inventory shouldn't hit supply side that hard.

Housing policy, interest rates & urbanization are the usual factors everywhere, seems a safe null hypothesis here as well.

Eg in sweden, deregulation: https://www.thelocal.se/20230627/explained-swedens-plans-to-...

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#48

Post by irrational »

pjc50 wrote: post #9
brtkdotse wrote: post #3

The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden. Add a looming climate crisis and a self-fulfillment-oriented culture and you get very few new babies.

> The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden I think this is all that needs to be said on these articles. (There's a lot more that _could_ be said, such as how few actual birthing HN readers there are, but I think the economics is really simple at the root of it.) Besides, even the countries with really the worst outlook and conditions aren't falling all that fast. Russia…

Wait, how do you know there are few actual birthing HN readers? How many children have I had?

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#49

Post by brtkdotse »

anonporridge wrote: post #44
brtkdotse wrote: post #3

The ratio of housing cost vs real income almost tripled over the last 20 years in Sweden. Add a looming climate crisis and a self-fulfillment-oriented culture and you get very few new babies.

Real disposable income in Sweden has increased 50% over the last 20 years. https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/the-real-gross-disposabl...

Green is disposable income, orange is cost of apartment housing:

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tonEuOE0IXE/WfpBpIzy8rI/AAAAAAAAF...

Re: Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are natalist policies no longer enough?

#50

Post by jahnu »

pjc50 wrote: post #20
stonemetal12 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what is driving the housing prices up in the Nordics? Population decline would suggest weakening demand. The EU is famous for long lasting housing so lack of new inventory shouldn't hit supply side that hard.

The Swedish population is not declining. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/sweden-popula...

Right!

In fact only Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of the Northern Europe countries are showing a long term decline.

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