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Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

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Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#131

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Waymo _might_ be the sole survivor here... they are ABSOLUTELY trying their damndest with it. It's remarkable to not go a single day without seeing a driverless Waymo doing its thing. (I live in Central Phoenix, they're _everywhere_.) The core concept is being proven pretty well, in markets with good weather and good roads at least... whether they can achieve some sort of critical mass that allows them to recoup any…

I really hope Waymo succeeds, or at the very least survives in its current markets. It is so much more comfortable, convenient, and safe than traditional ride share. I switched to more or less only using Waymo for ride-share in SF after I got into the beta last year, and almost without exception every Uber or Lyft ride I have had to take since then for timing, availability, or route reasons has been some kind of deba…

How is it so bad for you? I've had 500+ Lyft rides over 7+ years and never had an issue with a single driver...?

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#132

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I guess a significant number of employees are just working really hard on things that don't matter. When every single thing that needs working on is already being worked on, a lot of people are going to be doing busy work. There was a post by Stevie Yeggie where he talked about working at google. he looked really hard to find a new project to lead but absolutely everything was already being worked on, he found. event…

It's quite possible for the engineers to work really hard in ways that even directly harm the company, either directly, or by increasing the political costs of making a better decision. My favorite here is Bridgewater and their HR/Evaluation/Alignment system. There's books written about it. Developing it and running it took a high percentage of workers and contractors. Its implementation had all kinds of negative eff…

I'm aware of their alignment system from the book Principles, but I'm curious why/how you came to the conclusion it was a negative?

Pandemic and larger-than-life CEO stepping down both seem like the major outliers in the dynamic you described. Bridgewater was very, very successful for quite some time with that policy in place.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#134
post #107

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> Google revenues come from ~90% ads. That's not true, and hasn't been for a decade. For this earnings release, the proportion of revenue from ads was 76%. > The company gives guidance No, they don't. As far as I know they've literally never given guidance.

What do you think the covering analysts talk to google executives about? The weather?

From your misplaced sarcasm, it seems that you might not know what "guidance" means in this context. It's the company predicting what their financials will be in the future, such as "our revenue will be in the range $X-$Y in the next quarter". There's a lot of space for discussion between those kinds of predictions and the weather. For example, they could discuss what happened in the previous quarter. They could discuss future plans, without making any exact claims on the impact of those plans.

If you truly believe Google releases guidance, how about you just find a quote for what that supposed guidance was for Q4? You won't find it, because Google does not release guidance. The GP just made it up, just like they made up the numbers.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's quite possible for the engineers to work really hard in ways that even directly harm the company, either directly, or by increasing the political costs of making a better decision. My favorite here is Bridgewater and their HR/Evaluation/Alignment system. There's books written about it. Developing it and running it took a high percentage of workers and contractors. Its implementation had all kinds of negative eff…

I'm aware of their alignment system from the book Principles, but I'm curious why/how you came to the conclusion it was a negative? Pandemic and larger-than-life CEO stepping down both seem like the major outliers in the dynamic you described. Bridgewater was very, very successful for quite some time with that policy in place.

I had always assumed (perhaps cynically) that Bridgewater's elaborate system was part of its marketing to people who run endowments and pensions. It gives people a sense that they are working with the best and hardest working, even if in reality their returns are equal to other less notable firms.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#136

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2021: Yay! Crazy hiring! 2023: What?!?! Laying off a fraction of recent hires? The world is ending!! Obviously this sucks for the laid-off, but…you don’t need a very long memory to put this in perspective.

More than a fraction of recent hires. I had long-tenured teammates (10+ years) who were let go, for no particular reason.

I bet either their comp was very high due to their tenure relative to their output, or they spent too much time at the same level and weren't showing upward trajectory. I know that you only need to be an L4 officially to get past the up or out stage, but that doesn't mean that they won't find people to lay off who have been an L5 for 12 years

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#137
post #24

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Hm there it says Revenue, excluding traffic acquisition costs: $72.32 billion vs. $70.97 billion expected ($63.12 billion in Q4 2022) Adjusted earnings per share: $1.64 vs. $1.59 expected ($1.05 in Q4 2022) Cloud revenue: $9.19 billion vs. $8.95 billion expected ($7.32 billion in Q4 2022) Ad revenue: $65.5 billion vs. $65.8 billion expected ($59.04 billion in Q4 2022) I hope that 0.3 is not the reason for that slip h…

Google missing on ad revenue is like Apple missing on iPhone revenue. It's even worse for Google because it's a larger part of their business. Is the miss a blip or a signal of a slowing ad market or are LLMs eating into their business? Hard to know, but that's the concern.

We beat expectations across the board a couple quarters ago except in cloud. Stock dipped the next day. I’m unconvinced this dip is a meaningful signal into the trajectory of Google or is based on any reasonable concern.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#138

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Good luck finding useful projects for 180k people. That's just a ridiculous amount of people and projects.

I don't think you realize how many products Google has. Cruise had ~ 4k employees at its peak. Waymo is just one tiny project in Google. Splunk had 8000 employees, GCP has a competitor to it. Bigquery is a competitor to Snowflake, who has around 5,000 employees. Databricks had 4k employees, which GCP also has a competitor to. This is just a fraction of the software just in cloud .

Waymo and Cruise are valid comparisons. GCP competitor to Splunk (Stackdriver) is a complete joke. I would be shocked if more than 500 people are working on that thing

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#139

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In my org at the Goog, we didn't have any layoffs, but we also aren't expecting any new headcount any time soon. Projects that need more staff are expected to cannibalize it from other projects under the same VP. I feel like this is actually a good way of doing things, and wish Google did this more broadly. Just think if everyone who would have been laid off was instead transferred to a project that needs their skill…

The problem with this (and I was also in an org that didn't get any headcount -- for several years) is that those non-growing teams often ultimately just wither and die, whether it's through internal transfer, attrition or layoff. Google doesn't really reward managers for their managerial skill, and there's nothing that says "managerial incompetence" at Google more than having the same size team for years on end.

The idea that a manager’s success should be measured in the number of people below them is truly idiotic. That is how you end up with companies like Google increasing their headcount by massive amounts during the pandemic only to have to turn around and do layoffs a year later.

Middle managers serve a role but honestly many of them can be replaced without really disrupting anything. At a certain point, you become too far removed from the actual work that is being done to really matter.

On the other hand, there are many low level managers with teams of fewer than 10 people who can be very valuable and hard to replace. People with deep expertise in the specific area they work on.

Measuring a manager by their headcount is just a lazy way to evaluate impact and calculate salary.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#140

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Ad revenue: $65.5 billion vs. $65.8 billion expected ($59.04 billion in Q4 2022) Right, they got $300 million less than expected. Which means they only got 99.544072948% of what the analysts expected. That means they missed analyst expectations by 0.455927052%. Not for total Revenue. Not for EPS. Not for net income. Not for diluted EPS. For the one category, Ad Revenue. Resulting in a 6% after-market drop. 0.45592705…

Google revenues come from ~90% ads. It's an ad company. The company gives guidance, so the estimates are not pulled out of thin air. Google should know their ad business very well at this point. People selling after an ad miss is medium/long term thinking. They could be wrong, but was the miss caused by a wider economic slowdown (see UPS earnings) or was it Google specific? Either way, it could be sign of Google slow…

Yet when we beat expectations in ads but barely miss in cloud the stock tanks as well. There’s no reasonable explanation I’ve heard for our stock behavior after our earnings beat expectations.
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