Live data from Hacker News

Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

abc.xyz

111–120 of 192 posts

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most valuable owner in this space is whoever you communicate with to tell them where you want to go. They get to offer you a price, they get to offer you alternative destinations, and they get to offer you "deals". For example that means that a different supermarket can make an offer you come to them instead, or you can be offered a different price should a different route be taken, a ride share happen, a journey…

Color me skeptical, but I've never gotten in a car without having decided my destination first. I don't go to "any supermarket", I go to Supermarket X because they have the goods I need at a price I accept or the best promos that week or whatever. If letting your rideshare company decide your destination was really a thing, why wouldn't Uber be doing it already be doing it with human drivers?

> I've never gotten in a car without having decided my destination first.

Not yet...

> If letting your rideshare company decide your destination was really a thing, why wouldn't Uber be doing it already be doing it with human drivers?

Because Uber isn't an advertising company. They're still chasing fares like scrubs

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo _might_ be the sole survivor here... they are ABSOLUTELY trying their damndest with it. It's remarkable to not go a single day without seeing a driverless Waymo doing its thing. (I live in Central Phoenix, they're _everywhere_.) The core concept is being proven pretty well, in markets with good weather and good roads at least... whether they can achieve some sort of critical mass that allows them to recoup any…

I've heard each Jag costs ~$250k fully loaded... that's a lot of ~$14-on-average trips before breakeven My math says that's about 25 trips per day to break even in two years (modulo maintenance costs).

Not to forget energy costs.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#113
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they have proved that it's a incinerator at this point.

Waymo _might_ be the sole survivor here... they are ABSOLUTELY trying their damndest with it. It's remarkable to not go a single day without seeing a driverless Waymo doing its thing. (I live in Central Phoenix, they're _everywhere_.) The core concept is being proven pretty well, in markets with good weather and good roads at least... whether they can achieve some sort of critical mass that allows them to recoup any…

Yeah, but wintry places are mostly useless. The Bay Area and the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area see some $2 trillion in GDP. That's more than 15 states put together. New York City and Chicago are big economic centers, of course, but they have good public transit.

So you can make a pretty big business just pretending winter doesn't exist.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#114
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they have proved that it's a incinerator at this point.

Waymo _might_ be the sole survivor here... they are ABSOLUTELY trying their damndest with it. It's remarkable to not go a single day without seeing a driverless Waymo doing its thing. (I live in Central Phoenix, they're _everywhere_.) The core concept is being proven pretty well, in markets with good weather and good roads at least... whether they can achieve some sort of critical mass that allows them to recoup any…

I really hope Waymo succeeds, or at the very least survives in its current markets. It is so much more comfortable, convenient, and safe than traditional ride share.

I switched to more or less only using Waymo for ride-share in SF after I got into the beta last year, and almost without exception every Uber or Lyft ride I have had to take since then for timing, availability, or route reasons has been some kind of debacle. Ranging from just an unclean and odd-smelling car to a ride my partner and I had to end early with the "pull over now" button when the clearly intoxicated driver missed multiple exits and slid on and off the highway median figuring out what to do.

By the way, that driver was a "Platinum" tier driver per the Uber app. I reported what happened in detail in a message to support, specifically using the safety issue area of the app, and got back an automated message explaining to me that my credit card charge differed from the amount shown onscreen because the ride ended early. I have previously ranted at length on HN about the nasty dark patterns Lyft uses to attempt to trick you into using their "priority pickup", which is always slower than promised and condescends to you with fake "just a few more seconds" messages while it waits for a driver. Recently, my Uber app has begun auto-selecting Black cars for no conceivable reason, except that it does this after 10pm on the weekends when it's more likely I'm in a rush and/or sleepy and/or intoxicated.

The user experience of Uber and Lyft has gotten so poor it feels like outright hostility from these apps towards the users. I've certainly had multiple drivers who behaved outright hostile to their customers. By comparison, the Waymo experience is perfect.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But isn't that just bad management / prioritization? Isn't the solution to just shuffle people to more useful projects instead of firing them? Especially at a company that hires general engineers who can work on any project, and also at a company that has a lot of internal tooling which makes ramping up new engineers slow and tedious. They'll probably grow back to 190k within a few months, but those 8k new hires will…

In my org at the Goog, we didn't have any layoffs, but we also aren't expecting any new headcount any time soon. Projects that need more staff are expected to cannibalize it from other projects under the same VP. I feel like this is actually a good way of doing things, and wish Google did this more broadly. Just think if everyone who would have been laid off was instead transferred to a project that needs their skill…

The problem with this (and I was also in an org that didn't get any headcount -- for several years) is that those non-growing teams often ultimately just wither and die, whether it's through internal transfer, attrition or layoff. Google doesn't really reward managers for their managerial skill, and there's nothing that says "managerial incompetence" at Google more than having the same size team for years on end.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#116
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay so why is GOOG -4% in after hours this time? :)

In the 18 years i've been at GOOG, what direction the stock moves post-earnings is always random, and then talking heads try to post-facto rationalize it. I've seen Google blow away earnings and all expectations and be down 10%, and completely miss expectations and pop up 5%.

Everyone has an explanation for this but a while ago there was this online game someone made which would give you some metric about some public stock and then you had to guess to buy / sell. It's not that straightforward.

Here, GOOG was $144.99 on Jan 18 and $144.50 on Jan 30 and this is supposed to be some dramatic shift in things? Bullshit.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Google SWE costs the company around $750k average, fully loaded cost. So if those were all SWEs, $6B/yr isn't an unreasonable estimate.

Where did you get the $750K figure? I'm in the Bay Area, Sr Engineer, on the higher end of the pay scale, and no-where close to that figure.

How do you know how much your benefits and support staff cost?

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck finding useful projects for 180k people. That's just a ridiculous amount of people and projects.

I don't think you realize how many products Google has. Cruise had ~ 4k employees at its peak. Waymo is just one tiny project in Google. Splunk had 8000 employees, GCP has a competitor to it. Bigquery is a competitor to Snowflake, who has around 5,000 employees. Databricks had 4k employees, which GCP also has a competitor to. This is just a fraction of the software just in cloud .

That's not apples to apples, though. Snowflake has 5,000 employees in the entire firm. The BQ Product+Eng+partnerships team is a fraction of that, and the SG&A functions are all shared services across all of Cloud, just like your Databricks comparison.

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#119
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google revenues come from ~90% ads. It's an ad company. The company gives guidance, so the estimates are not pulled out of thin air. Google should know their ad business very well at this point. People selling after an ad miss is medium/long term thinking. They could be wrong, but was the miss caused by a wider economic slowdown (see UPS earnings) or was it Google specific? Either way, it could be sign of Google slow…

> Google revenues come from ~90% ads. That's not true, and hasn't been for a decade. For this earnings release, the proportion of revenue from ads was 76%. > The company gives guidance No, they don't. As far as I know they've literally never given guidance.

What do you think the covering analysts talk to google executives about? The weather?

Re: Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Results [pdf]

#120
post #47
post #2

Summary from the release for Q4: - Revenue increased from $76B to $86B (13% increase) - Operating income increased $18.1B to $23.7B - Net income increased $13.6B to $20.7B - Diluted EPS increased $1.05 to $1.64

I highly recommend reading the excellent book "Financial Intelligence" if anyone wants to actually interpret these numbers. Having read the book, the section "Change in Useful Lives of Our Server and Network Equipment" immediately caught my eye. It's a classic maneuver.

Google does that "change in useful lives" shit constantly.
Post reply on HN