291–300 of 364 posts
This is only the Hong Kong business. Which is why it hasn't had the impact you would expect.
The Hong Kong business is the business.
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Interesting. It's unclear how you liquidate the parent company without liquidating subsidiaries (who is going to buy Hengda RE?) and it seems like legally the HK decision should be binding: > Hong Kong and the mainland city of Shenzhen — where Evergrande is based — have a mutual insolvency recognition agreement, but it’s “effectively inoperative” But China basically ignores HK in this.
I'm very naive about all of this, can I ask what this means? Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate, on paper this means that the Chinese subsidiary Hengda must also liquidate, but China's just... not going to liquidate Hengda? So instead of Evergrande's creditors dividing up Evergrande+Hengda's assets only Evergrande's assets are going to be liquidated? If that's right, how does that work? Does Hengda get bought a…
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> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. I unironically think a property bubble pop is a great way to defeat the demographic slump in the long term. That and the recent crackdown/reforms on private education makes me think the party is aware that property bubbles and education costs are a liability
I wonder how much of the world's growth is squeezed by these kinds of inefficiencies. Property speculation keeps prices high, and people paying off mortgages in dead-end jobs. Education costs force parents into difficult decisions to move out of HCOL areas where they likely have higher-value jobs. Energy and Water costs spike while providing no societal benefit. The West is obsessed with keeping these in place, the r…
The real-estate market in the West may be bonkers but at least someone in their prime earning years can invest in stocks if they can't purchase a home. That has its own risks but with a little knowledge you can mitigate them and with patience you can wait them out and even benefit from them.
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The bigger question is if China is going to prioritize local debt holders over overseas debt holder (everyone should take a massive haircut though), and what happens to the apartments they've sold but not built yet (since Chinese banks have lent money to people to buy those).
Ooh! I got this one! They will.
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> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. I unironically think a property bubble pop is a great way to defeat the demographic slump in the long term. That and the recent crackdown/reforms on private education makes me think the party is aware that property bubbles and education costs are a liability
I wonder how much of the world's growth is squeezed by these kinds of inefficiencies. Property speculation keeps prices high, and people paying off mortgages in dead-end jobs. Education costs force parents into difficult decisions to move out of HCOL areas where they likely have higher-value jobs. Energy and Water costs spike while providing no societal benefit. The West is obsessed with keeping these in place, the r…
lol wut? china changing ineffeiciencies? this must be winnie the poo propaganda. china is corrupt as all hell and much of their building material is of dubious and shady quality. japan and korea are stagnating, and much of SEA is still struggling to modernize and combat their own structural inefficiencies.
PE is a cancer, but I'd be curious to know how much of a stake foreign firms have in those orgs.
In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…
> affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. it is, but it's also complicated as the problems are quite a bit different in China then in the US the reason there was a bubble in China was because they sold (barely) affordable (apartment owned, not rented) housing to a huge amount of people while not producing it. Like they financed it similar to a snowball system. Group B buys housi…
In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…
> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. I unironically think a property bubble pop is a great way to defeat the demographic slump in the long term. That and the recent crackdown/reforms on private education makes me think the party is aware that property bubbles and education costs are a liability
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The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…
> If the default is changing in China too, their population is going to shrink no matter what. yes, that might actually be _the_ biggest incoming issue china has (through much much less because of housing prices). Basically by combining one child politics with various cultural and economic effects lead to a very strongly favor for having a boy over a girl. Combine that with natural reduction in birthrate due to reduc…
That would be stupid, one thing the regime is not. Easier is to allow immigration of brides from Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. Also, they can simply promote mechanization of agriculture. Right now, ~20-30% population is in agriculture that can be reduced to 2-5%.
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The "west" and china have _very_ different demographic pressures. For example china famously had(has?) the one child rule. This meant a deliberate shift in how children were raised (all your eggs in one basket) > Now the default is single-no-children and you have to make an explicit choice to marry (you used to be nudged into it by society) and to have kids, by stopping to use contraceptives and to do all the things…
If you look at the historical birth rate through the 20th century (hard to find data before 1950, but not impossible), the birth rate hovered around 5 children/woman or 35 children/1000 population. These numbers drop immediately and precipitously starting in 1960, the year "the pill" became publicly available. Lots of people, young and old, take pills every day. People forget and unwanted pregnancies still happen, bu…
In downtown Los Angeles directly across the street from Staples Center/crypto where the Lakers play and a stone's throw from The Palm steakhouse is an imposing yet unfinished skyscraper. The idea was retail on the bottom, hotel in the middle, and $$ residences higher up It has languished incomplete-- basically rotting-- in part because of EB-5 financing trouble + Oceanwide. It's expensive to finish, expensive to demo…
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