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I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.
It is just a delaying tactic. ASML is 5-10 years ahead in their technology so it will take a while for China to catch up. Which will grant the USA some extra time to build its own chip industry and not be dependent on two or three other countries.
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> the exceptions to that are mostly related to finance or national security sensitive industries. Yes, those things are off limits. Now, how do you define what's finance or national security? Whatever they need to control (the US does this too). All of these "China is a free market" comments are funny; their capital markets are closed, you can't freely move money in and out without government permission.
So exactly the same as in the US? For instance the Russians got their assets frozen by a whim of the US government
Hypothetical question... if China banned all trade with the US what would happen to the US? And what would happen to china?
Wouldn’t we just be back to the 1950-1970s again? China bans all trade, except through Hong Kong. The rest of the world doesn’t notice much, China is really poor. Just look at North Korea, that is basically what juche is.
Most of the manufacturing capabilities of the US has completely shifted over to china. So there would be damage to everyone now. I'm just asking about the extent of the damage. Is survival possible?
Also I'm not saying ban all trade. Just ban all trade with the US. This would be the retaliatory tactic as that's where the pressure is coming from as china is directly challenging the US for the top spot in the economic hierarchy.
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So exactly the same as in the US? For instance the Russians got their assets frozen by a whim of the US government
Russians got their assets frozen because they are aggressive genocidal invaders.
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> the exceptions to that are mostly related to finance or national security sensitive industries. Yes, those things are off limits. Now, how do you define what's finance or national security? Whatever they need to control (the US does this too). All of these "China is a free market" comments are funny; their capital markets are closed, you can't freely move money in and out without government permission.
So exactly the same as in the US? For instance the Russians got their assets frozen by a whim of the US government
Who are "the Russians"? The party elites who invaded another country on a whim? Their relatives and cozy oligarch friends with yachts and London flats? The residents of Russia who pay taxes and finance the war?
As a Russian not in those categories I did and do business with US companies/freelancing platforms (except for a few specific ones like Github) and my meagre assets are OK. Even if I was back in Russia I would be able to get my funds out until I get suspended
I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.
It is just a delaying tactic. ASML is 5-10 years ahead in their technology so it will take a while for China to catch up. Which will grant the USA some extra time to build its own chip industry and not be dependent on two or three other countries.
Without these sanctions, China will likely soon develop chip design talent that's at the cutting edge, but they'll fab with TSMC (and thus use the entire Western-dependant supply chain). This means that China's chip manufacturing ecosystem will remain poor, unpopular and underdeveloped.
With these sanctions, China's chip design talent can't fab cutting edge chips. But China's manufacturing ecosystem suddenly gets the market incentive to develop. I don't think they will reach EUV any time soon, and that hurts. But dominating the mature chip manufacturing sector in the mid term is an achievable goal, and mature chips are still absolutely essential even if they're not "sexy". Whereas before sanctions, there was no way they could dominate in chip manufacturing (nobody wanted to fab with Chinese manufacturers or wanted to buy Chinese chip manufacturing equipment), only in chip design.
What these sanctions did was trading one thing (cutting-edge chip design) for the other (mature chip manufacturing). The short-term blow to China sounds sexy, but they've created a long-term problem. Is this trade worth it? I wonder whether policymakers even realize they're making this trade.
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Russians got their assets frozen because they are aggressive genocidal invaders.
It doesn't matter if it was ethically justified or not. The fact remains that the assets were frozen by the US government which runs contrary to the notion that the US allows unrestricted capital movement. Today it's Russians' assets, yesterday it was Afghanistan's central bank's assets and tomorrow it can be any other country
> Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Tuesday urged the Netherlands "to be impartial, respect market principles and the law, take practical actions to protect the common interests of both countries and their companies and maintain the stability of international supply chains". This amuses me greatly. I had no idea China is explicitly pro-market capitalism.
Walk around any Chinese city and you’ll see hundreds of small businesses, as well as evidence of massive conglomerates. That the state reserves the right to interfere as it sees fit doesn’t make it not capitalist. Unless the current chip war is evidence of America being not capitalist.
This is what differentiates capitalism (US, Europe etc) from authoritarianism (China) or mafia run states(Russia).
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Even if things don’t “end well” for Taiwan, it’s unlikely that China will obtain Taiwan‘s manufacturing abilities. They will rather be destroyed, to ensure that China doesn’t get their hands on them, and then everyone will suffer the consequences.
Taiwan is subject to the same equipment dependencies as China. They don’t make the machines, they import them from the Americans, Dutch, and Germans. If China took over Taiwan, they might be able to obtain Salem great semiconductor engineers (but they could just hire them already on work visas), maybe some plans for the next 2 or 3 years on chips they can’t fab without western equipment, but that’s it. Economically,…