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Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#101

Post by pandaman »

jliptzin wrote: post #99
pandaman wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Police is funded with the local taxes: business, property and sales. Your articles show no evidence of Walmart not paying those, just the US taxes, which do not fund the police (at least directly, there are some federal grants to local police forces but those are: a) small fraction of the budget b) are given to pushing the federal partisan polices and not the actual enforcing of the laws).

https://goodjobsfirst.org/report-walmart-state-and-local-tax... They also don’t seem to make an effort to actually stop shoplifting. They take out regular check out lanes and replace them with self check outs that are unbelievably frustrating to use and make it very easy to shoplift accidentally. One time I apparently shoplifted an item by accident while using the self checkout lane, the only reason I realized is bec…

That article does not say that Walmart does not pay local taxes but suggests that it should not have used legal allowances it was given and pay more than it should by law. Your shopping experience in Walmart does not seem to be relevant at all, if you don't like it - don't go there, it in no way justifies allowing crime against Walmart to go unpunished.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#102

Post by matrix87 »

pintxo wrote: post #86
matrix87 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm pretty sure gp means drawing conclusions based off of lived experience instead of more general statistics. Or at least, not putting so much faith in statistics to allow them to cancel personal experiences which are opposed to them Maybe an argument for that could be that statistics are normally framed in a certain way, or may obscure certain things, or may be inconclusive. Statistics can be gamed, sometimes c…

No one is going to argue against using common sense to validate statistics and their underlying assumptions. But replacing statistics with “common sense” is just nonsense. Humanity has come to the point it is now, not by following “common sense” but by following science. And that’s more often than not basically statistics.

> Humanity has come to the point it is now, not by following “common sense” but by following science

What do you mean by "following science" here? As in, making your own observations, testing your own hypotheses? I'm not arguing against that, if anything I'm arguing for making that the norm

If you're saying "give other people's statistics prevalence over my own recorded ones", why call that science if it isn't anywhere in the scientific method? Why hijack the phrase? Why not call it "trust in authority" or something less dishonest?

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#103

Post by caditinpiscinam »

peyton wrote: post #65
caditinpiscinam wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asking this not because I disagree with you, but because I want to know more about your perspective: what is your opinion of people who are skeptical of/hesitant towards vaccines?

Having no opinion is a lost art. I’m also not sure what you mean by “skeptical of vaccines.” Skepticism means doubting knowledge claims, so you’ll need to put forth some claims to have a real discussion here.

True, my question was vague. I know people who believe various things related to their health that the medical system says aren't real, empirically, like autoimmune issues triggered by mrna vaccines, long-term effects of lyme disease, and severe reactions to birth control. I've found that I react really differently to generic versions of the same medicine produced by different manufacturers, which many pharmacists say isn't possible. I'm curious whether you'd say that the "church of only using rigorous statistics" is a problem in scientific contexts as well as social issues.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#104

Post by verteu »

crazygringo wrote: post #66
zzleeper wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In that imgur plot see it ending in 2022, and crime has barely bulged after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels which is insane

The imgur link is misleading because it's not per capita and doesn't show the 0 point. Here is an accurate graph: https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ We are nowhere near the peak of the 1990's, nor are we at 1995 levels. Rates trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022: https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ Which would be bac…

Thx -- your graph is the better one.

There's still a clear inflection point at 2014.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#105

Post by diogenescynic »

ericfrazier wrote: post #78

Fewer people reporting crimes

When I had a hit and run on my parked vehicle in front of my house, the 911 operator told me to call 311 to file a police report even though I could see the person driving away... I have a feeling the stats are being significantly massaged to come to the conclusion that crime is not rising. 30 years ago when I was growing up, I never saw open drug use or prostitution but now that is common and accepted. I don't remember the level of theft/car break ins either. Something has definitely changed for the worse.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#106

Post by diogenescynic »

SantalBlush wrote: post #49

I've noticed a general pattern on HN, and I think this thread exemplifies it: If the research confirms someone's personal experience, then they don't question the research methodology. On the other hand, if the research contradicts their experience, they look deeper into the methodology to find flaws in it. It's just a more intellectual form of confirmation bias.

Not all research is equal and it's often heavily biased by who is funding and promoting it. If research doesn't validate some interest groups talking point, we don't even hear about it.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#107

Post by diogenescynic »

fallingknife wrote: post #25

I had to get someone to unlock a case the other day to buy underwear at Target. Other times it's been toothpaste or deodorant. Someone want to explain to me why these things are locked up now, but they used to not be? Someone want to explain to me why I see videos of people stealing without consequence while security looks on powerless to do anything? Someone want to explain to me why there are open air markets for s…

24th and Mission BART station is/has been an open air market for stolen goods for literally years/decades. Come cities simply ignore crime.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#108

Post by HonestOp001 »

ethanbond wrote: post #92
Izkata wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things like theft under $950 being classified as a misdemeanor in California (happened in 2021 IIRC), which makes it far less likely the cops will do anything about it, de-facto legalizing theft. This isn't the only place it's happened, it's just the one that got the most visibility.

That happened in 2014. So recent-ish, but people started being really loud about it in 2021 as part of the same non-data-backed outrage.

It is a knock on effect. As decency decays and criminals figure out what the new rules are it gets amplified.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#109

Post by smt88 »

matrix87 wrote: post #100
smt88 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you don't even know what to vote for because no one knows what policies reduce crime. We do know that stricter sentencing doesn't work, but outside of that there are a million guesses. You could easily vote for someone who pretends to know and makes the problem worse.

> We do know that stricter sentencing doesn't work "Doesn't work" in what sense? In a rehabilitative sense? Is everyone in agreement that this is its intended purpose? Also: for what types of crimes? Kind of hard to believe really, you think the Code of Hammurabi didn't work?

No need to believe me when you could have spent this same amount of time just researching it for yourself. It's probably the first thing anyone talks about when they seriously discuss reducing crime rates.

tl;dr If you put enough people in prison for long enough, you will naturally reduce the crime rate because such a huge number of people are incarcerated. That doesn't justify things like life sentences for possession of marijuana.

But overall, you don't reduce an individual's likelihood to commit a crime either before or after their time in prison using longer sentences.

> Kind of hard to believe really, you think the Code of Hammurabi didn't work?

No, I don't.

1. https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/247350.pdf

2. https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/business-law/do-harsher-pu...

3. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/nov/19/do-long...

4. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20180514-do-long-prison-s...

5. https://counciloncj.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Impact-of...

6. https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/05/does-being-tough-on-...

7. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/crime-and-punishment...

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#110

Post by eesmith »

pandaman wrote: post #101
jliptzin wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://goodjobsfirst.org/report-walmart-state-and-local-tax... They also don’t seem to make an effort to actually stop shoplifting. They take out regular check out lanes and replace them with self check outs that are unbelievably frustrating to use and make it very easy to shoplift accidentally. One time I apparently shoplifted an item by accident while using the self checkout lane, the only reason I realized is bec…

That article does not say that Walmart does not pay local taxes but suggests that it should not have used legal allowances it was given and pay more than it should by law. Your shopping experience in Walmart does not seem to be relevant at all, if you don't like it - don't go there, it in no way justifies allowing crime against Walmart to go unpunished.

Are you really so focused on just this one sort of crime, or does your opinion extend equally to all other crimes?

We accept that some crimes go unpunished, yes? We don't hire enough traffic police to detect and punish all speeders, even though that's a crime, and that's only one of many crimes I can think of which are underprosecuted. Nor is there much of a cry to increase the number of traffic police and bring traffic speed down to the posted limits.

So why must all shoplifting by punished, with the police doing most of the work at the store?

We've long said that if an organization needs a higher level of security they can have their own security force, which may be private guards or a private police force, as with some campus police, transit police, and railroad police forces.

Just like there is no law saying a store must pay more than is legally required, there is also no law saying the government is required to supply a police force for the store.

Nor does it make economic sense for broadly trained police to handle a specialized task like providing security for a store.

One of the biggest crimes is wage theft. The total cost of wage theft is estimated at 100x that of every robbery: https://www.workingnowandthen.com/blog/wage-theft-the-50-bil...

We know Walmart has committed that crime. ("According to a 2018 report by Good Jobs, between January 2000 to 2018, Walmart paid over $1.4bn in fines and settlements over wage theft violations, FedEx paid over $500m during the same period, and Bank of America paid over $380m." - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/15/wage-theft-u... ).

Will these police officers assigned to Walmart also be charged with investigating and preventing wage theft at those stores?

No, of course that hasn't been part of the general discussion.

What, in your opinion, justifies allowing wage theft by Walmart to go unpunished?

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