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The end of retirement

thewalrus.ca

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Re: The end of retirement

#51

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/dependency-rati... Some numbers: Canada total dependency ratio: 52.1 youth dependency ratio: 23.9 elderly dependency ratio: 28.2 USA total dependency ratio: 53.7 youth dependency ratio: 28 elderly dependency ratio: 25.6 Japan total dependency ratio: 71.1 youth dependency ratio: 20.1 elderly dependency ratio: 51

[deleted]

Re: The end of retirement

#52
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have a look at a population pyramid, especially for countries without mass immigration. There isn’t much of a next generation. When people retire they become dependents. Each worker will need to support an increasing number of retirees.

If a country has a plan to become smaller, I guess I can see why they’d need to stretch out their current workforce for a long as possible. The US, which is where I live, I think plans on growing until we find a hard barrier that we can’t power through.

The US currently only maintains positive population growth due to immigration, and one of the two major political parties opposes immigration.

Re: The end of retirement

#53

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/dependency-rati... Some numbers: Canada total dependency ratio: 52.1 youth dependency ratio: 23.9 elderly dependency ratio: 28.2 USA total dependency ratio: 53.7 youth dependency ratio: 28 elderly dependency ratio: 25.6 Japan total dependency ratio: 71.1 youth dependency ratio: 20.1 elderly dependency ratio: 51

The article talks about the dependency ratio in depth, including why it's not a perfect metric: aging people tend to disproportionately do work that is not tracked, e.g. volunteer work and caregiving.

Re: The end of retirement

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if the fixed costs associated with employing an individual make that more challenging in some regulatory environments?

It could be, and that’s a good answer to the question of why we haven’t seen it. It would be nice though, if we made it possible.

I don't think it's so much the costs as it really only makes sense for people who bring specific capabilities that aren't easily replicated and they can apply those without a lot of coordination on a fairly loose and non-intense schedule.

That just doesn't apply to the vast majority of employees.

Re: The end of retirement

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if the fixed costs associated with employing an individual make that more challenging in some regulatory environments?

I'm trying to think of what those might be. Assuming you already have employees and a payroll system, I think maybe only worker's comp insurance would be considered a fixed cost. Maybe the cost of a notebook computer or other device, if required. Employees who are less than half time usually don't have to be offered retirement plan options or mandated sick leave/vacation (although here in California, it might apply a…

Office space.

Re: The end of retirement

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No that's completely wrong and is a lie that keeps being repeated. Life expectancy has increased at all ages: https://ourworldindata.org/its-not-just-about-child-mortalit... and " Excluding child mortality, the average life expectancy during the 12th–19th centuries was approximately 55 years. " - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy

The difference being that reduced mortality at age 60 adds mostly unproductive years, while reduced mortality at age 0-1 adds mostly productive years.

"Productive" in the most cynical and heartless definition of the word, perhaps. Plenty of 70- and 80-somethings live active, rewarding lives.

"You've stopped contributing to the economy, it's time for you to die now" is a disgusting attitude that we should not tolerate as a society.

Re: The end of retirement

#57
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a country has a plan to become smaller, I guess I can see why they’d need to stretch out their current workforce for a long as possible. The US, which is where I live, I think plans on growing until we find a hard barrier that we can’t power through.

The US isn’t immune to this, merely better placed. Projections are that the US will move from 3 workers per retiree to 2 workers per retiree by 2050. (You can project these things pretty well as the new generation is already born.)

You can project, but also respond; nation of immigrants and all that.

Re: The end of retirement

#58

Companies need to figure out how to keep the retiring around, a few days a week part time. There is a wealth of experience that gets lost . Companies are all in on AI but they're happy to let their pretrainined business domain finetuned trillion parameter models walk out the door.

Ageism is a thing. But most people want to wind down at some point. And that business domain knowledge probably leaks away over time. Certainly part-time work can be a thing. But to the degree it requires working together with other people it can be hard to manage, especially for a semi-retired person that wants to go on multi-week vacations.

Re: The end of retirement

#59

> “This is where our destitute end up, in these government-run facilities.” According to a 2019 report by the National Institute on Ageing at Toronto Metropolitan University, long-term care costs are expected to triple from $22 billion to $71 billion by 2050. “It will be the equivalent of the modern-day Victorian poor house for our old,” I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life. Wha…

>I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life. 1) It's physically and psychologically hard to end your own life 2) You aren't going to feel old, you'll just feel like you do now, but with an achey body and some brainfog. 3) A society that encourages old people to shuffle off this mortal coil is probably a bad one

> 3) A society that encourages old people to shuffle off this mortal coil is probably a bad one

Why do you think this?

Re: The end of retirement

#60
post #32

> “This is where our destitute end up, in these government-run facilities.” According to a 2019 report by the National Institute on Ageing at Toronto Metropolitan University, long-term care costs are expected to triple from $22 billion to $71 billion by 2050. “It will be the equivalent of the modern-day Victorian poor house for our old,” I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life. Wha…

Just because nobody else seems to want them doesn't mean they should have to kill themselves.

OP says “voluntarily”. Nobody has to kill themselves, but it seems like a lot of older people aren’t particularly happy in the last few years of their lives, kept alive by increasing drugs and machines, sometimes the mind long gone. Seems awful to extend life beyond the point of enjoyment, and an option to end things seems more humane than forcing people to continue.
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