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The end of retirement

thewalrus.ca

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Re: The end of retirement

#31

Post by ethbr1 »

pc86 wrote: post #5
bee_rider wrote: post #4

Retirement seems like a pretty crucial process in the economy. If we set things up so that people can’t retire, that will slow down the process of getting the next generation into their positions. I do know some folks who have, instead, semi-retired (go in one or two days a week). People at the end of their careers have lots of experience to pass on. And it seems to keep them active and healthy. I wonder why we haven…

> I wonder why we haven’t seen a growth in 1-2 day a week mentorship roles. If I had to hazard a guess I would say that most people in this position feel like they should get paid 50% of their previous salary for doing 20% of the work (and limiting their scope largely to mentorship rather than IC work), and with the combined scope reduction of both time and work performed, their employers would rather pay them even l…

It's funny that the companies I've seen do this productively all have "other justifications" for doing so.

But effectively, yes, they're keeping high-performing older talent around so some hard won lessons rub off on the youngsters.

I always thought companies should spend more time broadly categorizing employee allocation. E.g. this year you're going to be 20% mentor, 20% strategic advice, 60% IC

Everyone wears multiple hats in a healthy company, and part of the ageism problem is that the only management-visible hat is "work produced."

Re: The end of retirement

#32

Post by j4yav »

apwell23 wrote: post #24

> “This is where our destitute end up, in these government-run facilities.” According to a 2019 report by the National Institute on Ageing at Toronto Metropolitan University, long-term care costs are expected to triple from $22 billion to $71 billion by 2050. “It will be the equivalent of the modern-day Victorian poor house for our old,” I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life. Wha…

Just because nobody else seems to want them doesn't mean they should have to kill themselves.

Re: The end of retirement

#33

Post by zaptheimpaler »

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/dependency-rati...

Some numbers:

Canada total dependency ratio: 52.1 youth dependency ratio: 23.9 elderly dependency ratio: 28.2

USA total dependency ratio: 53.7 youth dependency ratio: 28 elderly dependency ratio: 25.6

Japan total dependency ratio: 71.1 youth dependency ratio: 20.1 elderly dependency ratio: 51

Re: The end of retirement

#34

Post by ghaff »

ketzo wrote: post #19
bee_rider wrote: post #4

Retirement seems like a pretty crucial process in the economy. If we set things up so that people can’t retire, that will slow down the process of getting the next generation into their positions. I do know some folks who have, instead, semi-retired (go in one or two days a week). People at the end of their careers have lots of experience to pass on. And it seems to keep them active and healthy. I wonder why we haven…

It's funny because there are careers that have figured out the kind of lower-work senior roles you're talking about -- doctors and lawyers come to mind right away, with surgeons who work 1-2 cases a week and senior partners who come in to consult for a month here and there.

And various types of consulting. I know a few semi-retired people in the IT realm who retired on the early side and still do some work on the side. The key is that you're sort of doing your own thing on your own schedule. Which doesn't describe most people at the average tech company.

Certainly for senior people there are probably one dayish a week roles that don't even have to happen every week. But now you're still essentially talking about being a consultant.

Re: The end of retirement

#35

Post by simbolit »

apwell23 wrote: post #24

> “This is where our destitute end up, in these government-run facilities.” According to a 2019 report by the National Institute on Ageing at Toronto Metropolitan University, long-term care costs are expected to triple from $22 billion to $71 billion by 2050. “It will be the equivalent of the modern-day Victorian poor house for our old,” I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life. Wha…

In canada physician-assisted suicide is legal, basically everywhere else it is not.

Re: The end of retirement

#36

Post by [deleted] »

antisthenes wrote: post #23
jodrellblank wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No that's completely wrong and is a lie that keeps being repeated. Life expectancy has increased at all ages: https://ourworldindata.org/its-not-just-about-child-mortalit... and " Excluding child mortality, the average life expectancy during the 12th–19th centuries was approximately 55 years. " - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy

The difference being that reduced mortality at age 60 adds mostly unproductive years, while reduced mortality at age 0-1 adds mostly productive years.

[deleted]

Re: The end of retirement

#37

Post by j4yav »

antisthenes wrote: post #23
jodrellblank wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No that's completely wrong and is a lie that keeps being repeated. Life expectancy has increased at all ages: https://ourworldindata.org/its-not-just-about-child-mortalit... and " Excluding child mortality, the average life expectancy during the 12th–19th centuries was approximately 55 years. " - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy

The difference being that reduced mortality at age 60 adds mostly unproductive years, while reduced mortality at age 0-1 adds mostly productive years.

But how does that make it completely wrong and a lie?

Re: The end of retirement

#38

Post by woodruffw »

apwell23 wrote: post #24

> “This is where our destitute end up, in these government-run facilities.” According to a 2019 report by the National Institute on Ageing at Toronto Metropolitan University, long-term care costs are expected to triple from $22 billion to $71 billion by 2050. “It will be the equivalent of the modern-day Victorian poor house for our old,” I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life. Wha…

For one, there are lots of old people who aren't living with assisted or long-term care. For another, everyone's quality of life metrics are different: there are a lot of people who would be content to live through decades of poor health, provided they can otherwise do things that matter to them (see their relatives, read books, etc.).

Voluntary suicide probably should be an option for those who don't want to continue their lives. But it doesn't evaporate the underlying problem, since many people (very reasonably) want to continue their lives through infirmity.

Re: The end of retirement

#39

Post by rorroe53 »

graeme wrote: post #17
bee_rider wrote: post #4

Retirement seems like a pretty crucial process in the economy. If we set things up so that people can’t retire, that will slow down the process of getting the next generation into their positions. I do know some folks who have, instead, semi-retired (go in one or two days a week). People at the end of their careers have lots of experience to pass on. And it seems to keep them active and healthy. I wonder why we haven…

Have a look at a population pyramid, especially for countries without mass immigration. There isn’t much of a next generation. When people retire they become dependents. Each worker will need to support an increasing number of retirees.

Well, maybe AI will replace most office jobs, at which point most of those workers can become caregivers to the old.

Re: The end of retirement

#40

Post by graeme »

bee_rider wrote: post #26
graeme wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have a look at a population pyramid, especially for countries without mass immigration. There isn’t much of a next generation. When people retire they become dependents. Each worker will need to support an increasing number of retirees.

If a country has a plan to become smaller, I guess I can see why they’d need to stretch out their current workforce for a long as possible. The US, which is where I live, I think plans on growing until we find a hard barrier that we can’t power through.

The US isn’t immune to this, merely better placed. Projections are that the US will move from 3 workers per retiree to 2 workers per retiree by 2050. (You can project these things pretty well as the new generation is already born.)
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