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The end of retirement

thewalrus.ca

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Re: The end of retirement

#21

Post by nytesky »

Most people shouldn’t worry about how to work till retirement.

Life expectancy trends have reversed and I suspect will worsen with more climate and zoonotic disease crossover, antibiotic resistance; though maybe mRNA cancer vax will balance that out.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/12/22/1144864...

But the author is Canadian, working for the CBC, which I don’t think suffers from the ageism in most of corporate America. But if you are post retirement age, you are expensive and will be a target for employers because you certainly have lower future potential value by definition and there will be at least assumptions about reduced productivity.

Outside of doctor/lawyer where people admire experience, maybe nearing retirement folks can work as teachers or walmart greeter, but high paying jobs will be in short supply and favor the young. If AI further quelches job creation, it will be even harder for old people to keep working.

Re: The end of retirement

#22

Post by mcmoor »

bee_rider wrote: post #4

Retirement seems like a pretty crucial process in the economy. If we set things up so that people can’t retire, that will slow down the process of getting the next generation into their positions. I do know some folks who have, instead, semi-retired (go in one or two days a week). People at the end of their careers have lots of experience to pass on. And it seems to keep them active and healthy. I wonder why we haven…

Well, it only make sense in aging population that doesn't have too many "next generation" anyway.

Re: The end of retirement

#23

Post by antisthenes »

jodrellblank wrote: post #12
ekianjo wrote: post #3

> Every generation lives longer than the one that came before—nothing new there No, that's completely wrong and this is a lie that keeps being repeated. Life expectancy has only been increasing because child mortality has decreased to almost zero. The upper end has not shifted much at all.

No that's completely wrong and is a lie that keeps being repeated. Life expectancy has increased at all ages: https://ourworldindata.org/its-not-just-about-child-mortalit... and " Excluding child mortality, the average life expectancy during the 12th–19th centuries was approximately 55 years. " - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy

The difference being that reduced mortality at age 60 adds mostly unproductive years, while reduced mortality at age 0-1 adds mostly productive years.

Re: The end of retirement

#24

Post by apwell23 »

> “This is where our destitute end up, in these government-run facilities.” According to a 2019 report by the National Institute on Ageing at Toronto Metropolitan University, long-term care costs are expected to triple from $22 billion to $71 billion by 2050. “It will be the equivalent of the modern-day Victorian poor house for our old,”

I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life. What good is a life spent in 'poor house for the old' . seems kind of an obvious strategy to end your life but maybe will to live trumps all commonsense even in old age?

Re: The end of retirement

#25

Post by nytesky »

ketzo wrote: post #19
bee_rider wrote: post #4

Retirement seems like a pretty crucial process in the economy. If we set things up so that people can’t retire, that will slow down the process of getting the next generation into their positions. I do know some folks who have, instead, semi-retired (go in one or two days a week). People at the end of their careers have lots of experience to pass on. And it seems to keep them active and healthy. I wonder why we haven…

It's funny because there are careers that have figured out the kind of lower-work senior roles you're talking about -- doctors and lawyers come to mind right away, with surgeons who work 1-2 cases a week and senior partners who come in to consult for a month here and there.

Those jobs have a fixed supply of graduates set the the Bar and AMA accrediting medical schools (and law schools but that is less clear to me, but anyways law school is very prestige based so kind of moot if a 3rd tier law school expands enrollment). Other fields have no body policing the incoming employee population.

Re: The end of retirement

#26

Post by bee_rider »

graeme wrote: post #17
bee_rider wrote: post #4

Retirement seems like a pretty crucial process in the economy. If we set things up so that people can’t retire, that will slow down the process of getting the next generation into their positions. I do know some folks who have, instead, semi-retired (go in one or two days a week). People at the end of their careers have lots of experience to pass on. And it seems to keep them active and healthy. I wonder why we haven…

Have a look at a population pyramid, especially for countries without mass immigration. There isn’t much of a next generation. When people retire they become dependents. Each worker will need to support an increasing number of retirees.

If a country has a plan to become smaller, I guess I can see why they’d need to stretch out their current workforce for a long as possible. The US, which is where I live, I think plans on growing until we find a hard barrier that we can’t power through.

Re: The end of retirement

#27

Post by Flux159 »

The numbers in the article are quite alarming for some countries - 49.9 out of 100 Canadians dependent (so one dependent for every 2 workers according to article) by 2075, or 77 out of 100 for Japan by 2075.

This seems like such a critical issue that governments around the world will need to have significant societal changes - at the moment this doesn't seem like something that tech or biotech will be able to solve simply.

Re: The end of retirement

#28

Post by d357r0y3r »

On one hand, we have older people retiring later and amassing wealth through their homes.

On the other hand, we have young families who can't afford homes near their jobs and insane childcare costs.

I think we just got too far away from the natural order where elders cycled out of the workforce and assumed family oriented duties.

Doubt there's any going back though.

Re: The end of retirement

#29

Post by dvngnt_ »

apwell23 wrote: post #24

> “This is where our destitute end up, in these government-run facilities.” According to a 2019 report by the National Institute on Ageing at Toronto Metropolitan University, long-term care costs are expected to triple from $22 billion to $71 billion by 2050. “It will be the equivalent of the modern-day Victorian poor house for our old,” I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life. Wha…

why should they? old people can live too

Re: The end of retirement

#30

Post by automatic6131 »

apwell23 wrote: post #24

> “This is where our destitute end up, in these government-run facilities.” According to a 2019 report by the National Institute on Ageing at Toronto Metropolitan University, long-term care costs are expected to triple from $22 billion to $71 billion by 2050. “It will be the equivalent of the modern-day Victorian poor house for our old,” I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life. Wha…

>I would love to hear why old ppl don't choose to voluntarily end their life.

1) It's physically and psychologically hard to end your own life 2) You aren't going to feel old, you'll just feel like you do now, but with an achey body and some brainfog. 3) A society that encourages old people to shuffle off this mortal coil is probably a bad one

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