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African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

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Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#131

Post by alephnerd »

jltsiren wrote: post #129
no_wizard wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I for the life of me can't figure out how countries end up in situations where a large subset of said population is not only armed by effectively uncontrollable by the government. How do they get money for arms? Where do the arms come from? Why is the government unable to exert any realistic control within their own borders? I know its a complex political problem, but I still don't get how in 2023 we still have warlo…

It often happens because the country never made any sense. There used to be two Yemens caught between the Ottomans and the British. The North became an independent kingdom and then a republic, while the South was first a British protectorate and then a communist state. Both had civil wars, and there were at least two wars between the two. When communism fell in Europe, the two Yemens unified and had a civil war. Then…

4 Yemens not 2

Aden Colony was it's own thing until the emergency. Basically an middle eastern Hong Kong or Singapore

The southern Emirates were their own thing until the late 60s

Hadhramut was it's own protectorate until 1967.

North Yemen (where the Houthis are from) was in the midst of a civil war between Commies and Zaidis. The Commies won, but the Zaidis got the last laugh by overthrowing Saleh and starting the Houthi movement.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#133

Post by hackerlight »

no_wizard wrote: post #84
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> is the de facto Shia Government of Yemen They “exert de facto authority over the bulk of North Yemen” [1]. The problem is there is no single person who controls their armed groups. So striking a deal with one person provides zero assurance around what the others will do. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement#Houthi-contr...

I for the life of me can't figure out how countries end up in situations where a large subset of said population is not only armed by effectively uncontrollable by the government. How do they get money for arms? Where do the arms come from? Why is the government unable to exert any realistic control within their own borders? I know its a complex political problem, but I still don't get how in 2023 we still have warlo…

> I for the life of me can't figure out how countries end up in situations where a large subset of said population is not only armed by effectively uncontrollable by the government.

Every "country" was once like this, it was the norm not the exception. Look at Feudal Japan for example. The nation-state is a modern invention (it's a social construct with associated institutions to enforce it) that requires a bunch of preconditions that obviously aren't going to hold up if you apply enough stress. It doesn't help that the national boundaries of many countries in the Middle East were drawn up arbitrarily after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. These aren't naturally emerging countries. They're arbitrary borders that contain warring tribes within those borders. Such as the Kurds who are split up among 3 countries.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#134

Post by Geisterde »

yard2010 wrote: post #65
Geisterde wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, and history started 2 months ago. There was never a partner for peace of course, not when we gave chemical weapons to Saddam, not when we invaded and turned the place into a shooting gallery for no reason, not when we rejected the talibans offer to turn over bin laden, not when we let him escape into Pakistan, not when we turned Libya into a failed state, not when we invaded somalia, not when we propped up a d…

You're describing life. This is diplomacy, while we can argue about its effectiveness I'm certain we can agree that it's still better than China, Russia and or Iran. It's just a matter of perspective - the west is the lesser evil here

Im describing a pattern of US involvenent in the middle east that has killed millions of people, actually.

Russia never getting a friendly welcome from the rest of europe after the collapse of the soviet union has to try to work with the only other neighbors they have, and havent had nearly as many problems and incurring far less wrath from the arab world as we have.

Chinas MO is not to start wars, and to date has not started one, they try to capture countries with debt financing. Depending on whether these debts become exogenous and tools to control the political leadership, as is the case with the US, China too may face these problems, but does not currently.

We created what iran is today, and we feed it with every sanction, intentionally.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#135

Post by JumpCrisscross »

alephnerd wrote: post #100
seandoe wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peter Zeihan analysis from a couple weeks ago: https://youtu.be/WJE7g08NldQ

As I've said a thousand times - stop listening to Zeihan. He's a quack. In my policy days, we never listened to the Stratfor guys.

To back this up, Stratfor is the Zero Hedge of geopolitics.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#136

Post by JumpCrisscross »

zdragnar wrote: post #128
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> later said they would target any ship that was headed to an Israeli port Sure. Then they hit a Norwegian tanker carrying biofuel to Italy [1]. Then another Norwegian ship [2]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/cruise-missile-yem... [2] https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/politics/uss-carney-red-sea/i...

They claim to believe that the STRINDA was going to make a delivery at an Israeli port: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/cruise-missile-yem... .

Okay, now do the Clara and Swan Atlantic.

What you’ve got is independent militant groups firing off while a rear PR group tries to project control.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#137

Post by [deleted] »

sudosysgen wrote: post #95
whatever1 wrote: post #52

I like how Chinese do not want to get involved in protecting vessels, despite the fact that it’s their containers on board. Oh well, good old America has to save capitalism, yet again :)

No Chinese ship has been targeted so far, to my knowledge, even if transiting.

[deleted]

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#138

Post by alephnerd »

ryanjshaw wrote: post #116
sekou wrote: post #20

Tanzania may have the lowest GDP of the three port countries mentioned but Dar es Salaam has the largest population compared to the smaller cities of Mombasa and Durban. From what little I understand the Tanzanian government may be in the best place politically to use these stress tests to focus more attention on port health and capabilities. I'd be happy for anyone else to weigh in.

Not sure why population matters. > Maersk said vessels routed around the Cape will as far as possible try to fuel at origin or destination. > “In case there is a need for bunkering en route, it would be decided on a case by case basis with Walvis Bay (Namibia) or Port Louis (Mauritius) being the top options,” a spokesperson said. I grew up in Walvis Bay and back then I could cycle from one end to the other in well un…

Oh whoa! I've always wanted to visit Namibia! How similar is it to South Africa?

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#139

Post by Geisterde »

j4yav wrote: post #55
Geisterde wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, telling them to stop, that addresses their greivances, you should be a diplomat.

Their grievances are pretty simple and straightforward, they even put them in writing on their flag, which is just green and red text on a white background. Which ones specifically are you willing to support or concede for peace? Here's the list: 1. God is the Greatest 2. Death to America 3. Death to Israel 4. A Curse Upon the Jews 5. Victory to Islam

Does it make you feel intelligent to reduce a complex organism to whats on a flag?

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#140

Post by csomar »

Waterluvian wrote: post #30
csomar wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. My guess is that this will be resolved through a combination of re-routing, new players (friendly to the Persians/Houthis) who will take advantage, and a bit of higher prices or some delay. The two big regional players (Saudi Arabia, UAE) are ignoring this because they made their deals already.

Or the U.S. unloads cruise missiles on Houthi locations like last time and business returns to normal.

It didn't work last time. What makes you think it'll work this time?
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