Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

gcaptain.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 219 posts

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#21

Post by sgift »

Geisterde wrote: post #4

You know how sometimes you find theres an simpler way of doing things? Sometimes its easier, or more scalable, it just takes creative thinking. Imagine for a moment a crazy idea, instead of sending a strike force to go turn people into mist, we try talking first? Its this weird phenomena, sometimes people dont rush into violence when they feel like their grievances are being taken seriously.

People told them to stop. The Houthis don't want to stop and instead continue to attack others. Mist it is.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#22

Post by ceejayoz »

hytfyiv3j wrote: post #15

It's fascinating to try to imagine the atmosphere in the room as they dust of decades old contingency plans of "what to do if Suez is closed?" and divert a sixth of the worlds shipping around the whole continent of Africa, probably adding a lot of cost in fuel and serious operational concerns as the ports naturally aren't ready for such a huge increase in traffic.

Those plans aren't very dusty, and were likely all updated quite recently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Suez_Canal_obstruction

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#23

Post by newsclues »

Geisterde wrote: post #4

You know how sometimes you find theres an simpler way of doing things? Sometimes its easier, or more scalable, it just takes creative thinking. Imagine for a moment a crazy idea, instead of sending a strike force to go turn people into mist, we try talking first? Its this weird phenomena, sometimes people dont rush into violence when they feel like their grievances are being taken seriously.

Assuming people are peaceful and rational is unrealistic.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#24

Post by oldpersonintx »

seandoe wrote: post #13
cs702 wrote: post #3

Is there anyone here with relevant expertise who can tell us: Are the Red Sea attacks are a relatively minor, temporary hiccup? Or can they lead to another global wave of supply-chain disruptions, like the those we experienced during the pandemic? There's lots of evidence that the pandemic's supply-chain disruptions triggered inflation, and we're still fighting it. I'm not looking for predictions. I'm more interested…

Peter Zeihan analysis from a couple weeks ago: https://youtu.be/WJE7g08NldQ

Is it as accurate as his numerous predictions of China and Russia both facing imminent collapse?

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#25

Post by ceejayoz »

chef0 wrote: post #17
Geisterde wrote: post #4

You know how sometimes you find theres an simpler way of doing things? Sometimes its easier, or more scalable, it just takes creative thinking. Imagine for a moment a crazy idea, instead of sending a strike force to go turn people into mist, we try talking first? Its this weird phenomena, sometimes people dont rush into violence when they feel like their grievances are being taken seriously.

“The Houthis aren’t going to stop what they’re doing, until the Israeli offensive in Gaza concludes,” Gregory Brew, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told Al Jazeera, “and even then they are likely to continue for some time after.” Their demands and intentions are quite clear and solely focused on Israeli-bound ships, although it does seem like this is giving them more leverage with respect to Yemen's agenda which has…

> Their demands and intentions are quite clear and solely focused on Israeli-bound ships...

Their actions haven't been, though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_involvement_in_the_2023...

> On 12 December 2023, the Houthis launched an anti-ship cruise missile attack against the Norwegian commercial ship Strinda, an oil and chemical tanker operated by the J. Ludwig Mowinckels Rederi company, while it was close to the Bab-el-Mandeb. The Strinda was on its way from Malaysia to Italy (via the Suez Canal). The attack caused a fire aboard the ship; no crew members were injured. The ship was carrying cargo of palm oil. The French Armed Forces Ministry and U.S. Department of Defense reported that the Languedoc shot down a drone targeted at the Strinda, and the USS Mason also rendered aid. The Houthi attack on the Strinda was an expansion of its series of attacks against maritime shipping in the strait; the Houthis began to attack commercial vessels without any discernible tie to Israel.

Several more attacks since then, on ships with nothing to do with Israel.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#26

Post by hytfyiv3j »

ceejayoz wrote: post #22
hytfyiv3j wrote: post #15

It's fascinating to try to imagine the atmosphere in the room as they dust of decades old contingency plans of "what to do if Suez is closed?" and divert a sixth of the worlds shipping around the whole continent of Africa, probably adding a lot of cost in fuel and serious operational concerns as the ports naturally aren't ready for such a huge increase in traffic.

Those plans aren't very dusty, and were likely all updated quite recently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Suez_Canal_obstruction

It must have been obvious from the start that it couldn't last too long, making just waiting it out the logical strategy.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#27

Post by ceejayoz »

dotancohen wrote: post #12
sealeck wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Houthis want conflict to remain in power domestically.

They're not really Houthis, they are followers of Hussein al-Houthi. I don't know why the Western media insists on giving them this name. Hussein al-Houthi was a Houthi, but most of his supporters are not. Would you call all Barak Obama supporters "Obamas"?

> Would you call all Barak Obama supporters "Obamas"?

If they engaged in a rebellion under his leadership/memory separately from the rest of the Democrats, we probably would.

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#28

Post by Geisterde »

dotancohen wrote: post #7
Geisterde wrote: post #4

You know how sometimes you find theres an simpler way of doing things? Sometimes its easier, or more scalable, it just takes creative thinking. Imagine for a moment a crazy idea, instead of sending a strike force to go turn people into mist, we try talking first? Its this weird phenomena, sometimes people dont rush into violence when they feel like their grievances are being taken seriously.

What side do you think tried violence before talking? The followers of Hussein al-Houthi? The Israelis? The Gazans? Hamas? Historic Palestinian leaderships? I could give examples for and against every single one of those entities. This is very much a matter of perspective - and everyone thinks he was reasonable from his own perspective.

Right, and history started 2 months ago. There was never a partner for peace of course, not when we gave chemical weapons to Saddam, not when we invaded and turned the place into a shooting gallery for no reason, not when we rejected the talibans offer to turn over bin laden, not when we let him escape into Pakistan, not when we turned Libya into a failed state, not when we invaded somalia, not when we propped up a dictator in iran, not when we sanctioned them for overthrowing the puppet, not when we started the civil war in sudan, not when we supported al-queda, not when we created isis, nope, never a partner for peace.

The US has created significant ill will trying to control the middle east, and there are consequences for continuing this path. You think we can solve this problem with more fighting, you dont think that will cause more problems?

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#29

Post by [deleted] »

dotancohen wrote: post #7
Geisterde wrote: post #4

You know how sometimes you find theres an simpler way of doing things? Sometimes its easier, or more scalable, it just takes creative thinking. Imagine for a moment a crazy idea, instead of sending a strike force to go turn people into mist, we try talking first? Its this weird phenomena, sometimes people dont rush into violence when they feel like their grievances are being taken seriously.

What side do you think tried violence before talking? The followers of Hussein al-Houthi? The Israelis? The Gazans? Hamas? Historic Palestinian leaderships? I could give examples for and against every single one of those entities. This is very much a matter of perspective - and everyone thinks he was reasonable from his own perspective.

[deleted]

Re: African Ports Overwhelmed by Red Sea Reroutings

#30

Post by Waterluvian »

csomar wrote: post #14
cs702 wrote: post #3

Is there anyone here with relevant expertise who can tell us: Are the Red Sea attacks are a relatively minor, temporary hiccup? Or can they lead to another global wave of supply-chain disruptions, like the those we experienced during the pandemic? There's lots of evidence that the pandemic's supply-chain disruptions triggered inflation, and we're still fighting it. I'm not looking for predictions. I'm more interested…

Not really. My guess is that this will be resolved through a combination of re-routing, new players (friendly to the Persians/Houthis) who will take advantage, and a bit of higher prices or some delay. The two big regional players (Saudi Arabia, UAE) are ignoring this because they made their deals already.

Or the U.S. unloads cruise missiles on Houthi locations like last time and business returns to normal.
Post reply on HN