Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again • Hacker News Board

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#181

Post by masto » Sat, Dec 09, 2023, 3:29 AM UTC

jdeibele wrote: post #135

masto wrote: post #73

I guess nobody told Energizer. https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-ne... My Nest smoke detectors demand these specific batteries. They were all installed around the same time, so they all come due at once, at a cost of ~$200.

$200/$65.89 = 3 packs of 24 AA batteries Nest smoke detectors take 6 batteries each https://support.google.com/googlenest/answer/9297548?hl=en#:... . 72 batteries / 6 batteries/device = approximately 12 smoke detectors (could be 9, 10, or 11) We have 6 First Alert smoke detectors that are connected together but don't use WiFi. There's 1 in each bedroom and a couple left over for key places. Using 12 smoke detectors i…

I just counted, I have 10. I thought it was 11, and I rounded up. Anyway, the exact math wasn't my point, but that lithium primary batteries are very expensive. Ironically, I just got a price alert that they're down to $46.64, except that when I try to buy them, Amazon says "Sorry, this item is no longer available from the seller you selected".

I don't have a huge house, but it is a 1950s split-level, and is pretty much the opposite of a modern open-plan design. And yes, I'm careful. Following NFPA recommendations, I have a smoke/CO detector in every bedroom, outside every sleeping area, and on every level, which adds up. Better safe than sorry.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#182

Post by masto » Sat, Dec 09, 2023, 3:38 AM UTC

megaman821 wrote: post #92

masto wrote: post #73

I guess nobody told Energizer. https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-ne... My Nest smoke detectors demand these specific batteries. They were all installed around the same time, so they all come due at once, at a cost of ~$200.

How long do they last? Normal lithium ion powered smoked detectors will last 10 years between battery changes.

I think they claim 5 years. I don't keep track of this stuff very carefully but based on how long I've had them and being on my second round of battery replacements, I'd say I got more like 3-4 years. It's not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things, especially when the batteries were cheaper. I just got sticker shock last time I went to buy a set.

Until recently at least, Energizer was the sole supplier of these batteries. You can't use anything else because they have a different voltage and discharge curve, so if you put alkaline batteries in, the Nest will almost immediately complain that they're low. I see there are some mildly sketchy other brands on Amazon now. Not sure if I'm going to take that chance.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#183

Post by otherme123 » Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 11:28 AM UTC

trompetenaccoun wrote: post #156

otherme123 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone can recognize a bubble once it pops. But the last three years, what you call "bubble" was rational (?) speculation that lithium 1) was going to be needed on a massive scale and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined. Also, between 2020 and 2023 we have a ~20% inflation, and the price is not yet stable.

>and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined There have been massive investments in lithium mining over the past few years, especially in Western countries, partly for business and partly for strategic geopolitical reasons. So there's nothing rational about that assumption and I don't think any serious investor made it either because all this is public knowledge among insiders and easily rese…

I was always on the side of "we will figure it out". You can see a question mark after the word "rational", because I recall arguing with very-knowledgeable-and-insider people right here, in HN, that assured that all the high yield and profitable lithium was already being mined, and no significant new lithium will be discovered.

I took my downvotes for saying that if the demand increased, either the supply will also increase or an alternative will be discovered/developed. And now I'm taking my downvotes for remembering that there was no feeling of bubble (although hindsight is always 20/20), but that the price spike was based on very rational (?) analysis.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#184

Post by peter_d_sherman » Wed, Dec 13, 2023, 4:49 AM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #175

peter_d_sherman wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There's no need to do nuclear chemistry when you can fish it out of seawater. I would love to see Lithium produced cheaply and efficiently from seawater as much as the next guy -- but tell me, is this a practical reality today? ? If there's a working Lithium-from-seawater extraction facility fully operating and producing Lithium at scale as of the current date -- then I have yet to see it. Would you kindly provide a…

You're the one who opened with "it may initially cost, like, trillions of dollars to do this in the lab the first couple of times" for the bonkers lithium nuclear synthesis idea, before moving the goalposts all the way to "If there's a working Lithium-from-seawater extraction facility fully operating and producing Lithium at scale as of the current date -- then I have yet to see it." The bench process is https://elec…

>You're the one who opened with "it may initially cost, like, trillions of dollars to do this in the lab the first couple of times" for the bonkers lithium nuclear synthesis idea...

Most ideas which have advanced humanity in some way -- have historically been perceived as "bonkers" -- at the point in time of their inception.

>"...before moving the goalposts all the way to "If there's a working Lithium-from-seawater extraction facility fully operating and producing Lithium at scale as of the current date -- then I have yet to see it." "

Well, "goalposts" moved or not -- I still do have yet to see it... (didn't your initial reply change the original "nuclear chemistry" goalpost to the "fishing it out of seawater" goalpost?)

That having been said, the links you have provided are very interesting and informative (thank you for them!) -- and perhaps lithium extraction from seawater at scale -- will one day become a practical reality!