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Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

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Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#171

Post by 93po »

kjkjadksj wrote: post #143
93po wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is virtually no way we will ever run out of lithium. It is massively abundant. It's just a matter of how much it costs to extract it. And we'll surely have fusion energy/abundant energy in 100 years and it will make the cost of extraction very close to zero.

I’m sure the nuclear physicists 100 years ago assumed the same about our fission energy output by today.

The total world energy production in 1920 was about 60 terrawat-hours. Today it's about 29,000. So while energy still costs a decent amount, there is a massive amount of it. And most of it could be fission based if society wasn't dumb.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#172

Post by 93po »

wkat4242 wrote: post #142
93po wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is virtually no way we will ever run out of lithium. It is massively abundant. It's just a matter of how much it costs to extract it. And we'll surely have fusion energy/abundant energy in 100 years and it will make the cost of extraction very close to zero.

Yeah it's called a rare earth mineral because the concentration in ore is so low not because there's little of it in total. It does unfortunately mean that you need to excavate a lot to mine it which is not great for the environment either (even though lithium is currently key to most renewable technologies)

There's also 180 billion tons of lithium in sea water, which is 1.3 million years of lithium at our current usage, and it would require no mining. It only requires electrodes in water with special coating to keep sodium at a minimum, and of course electricity. The coating is the part that's still being worked on, but they have one that that provides a 1:1 ratio of lithium to sodium.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#173

Post by peter_d_sherman »

pjc50 wrote: post #59
peter_d_sherman wrote: post #49

I think it would be highly interesting if physicists/scientists could figure out how to create Lithium in the lab, maybe from Helium -- or some esoteric combination of Helium, Helium isotopes, Hydrogen, Hydrogen isotopes -- and/or energy... Now that I think about it, maybe it would be possible to make Lithium from a heavier element -- such as Beryllium (the next element in Lithium's period/horizontal row) and/or Sodi…

There's no need to do nuclear chemistry when you can fish it out of seawater. > cheaper Physics sets fundamental limitations on how much energy you need, which means your lower bound is set by energy prices. It's not that scarce, it's not something like Polonium.

>There's no need to do nuclear chemistry when you can fish it out of seawater.

I would love to see Lithium produced cheaply and efficiently from seawater as much as the next guy -- but tell me, is this a practical reality today?

?

If there's a working Lithium-from-seawater extraction facility fully operating and producing Lithium at scale as of the current date -- then I have yet to see it.

Would you kindly provide a link or links to web pages describing such a facility?

Also, if seawater Lithium extraction is a present-day reality, then why do Lithium mines and mining operations continue to exist?

I don't deny that Lithium could possibly be pulled out of seawater or any other Lithium containing substance for that matter -- but as of the present date, I haven't seen seawater Lithium extraction (like, from the actual Ocean) working and working at scale...

So...

Links please?

But, all of this being said, Lithium extraction from seawater is indeed a great idea(!) -- if it could work and work at scale (and it quite possibly could, in the future!)

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#175

Post by pjc50 »

peter_d_sherman wrote: post #173
pjc50 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no need to do nuclear chemistry when you can fish it out of seawater. > cheaper Physics sets fundamental limitations on how much energy you need, which means your lower bound is set by energy prices. It's not that scarce, it's not something like Polonium.

>There's no need to do nuclear chemistry when you can fish it out of seawater. I would love to see Lithium produced cheaply and efficiently from seawater as much as the next guy -- but tell me, is this a practical reality today? ? If there's a working Lithium-from-seawater extraction facility fully operating and producing Lithium at scale as of the current date -- then I have yet to see it. Would you kindly provide a…

You're the one who opened with "it may initially cost, like, trillions of dollars to do this in the lab the first couple of times" for the bonkers lithium nuclear synthesis idea, before moving the goalposts all the way to "If there's a working Lithium-from-seawater extraction facility fully operating and producing Lithium at scale as of the current date -- then I have yet to see it."

The bench process is https://electrek.co/2021/06/04/scientists-have-cost-effectiv...

>> First you make it work -- then you make it cheap.

^ We are at step 1.

Some nuclear fusion people are proposing using lithium as an input. Guess where they're saying they'll get it from. https://news.newenergytimes.net/2022/01/08/lithium-lithium-e...

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#176

Post by Animats »

mschuster91 wrote: post #165
Animats wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trouble is, some of the alternatives are worse. Agricultural product buyers who control the path by which products are moved (grain elevators, stockyards, etc.) are in a stronger position than farmers. So they can negotiate prices below the "market" with farmers. There are farmers demanding that the US government require the big buyers (especially Cargill) to use publicly traded markets so they can't squeeze farm…

Time to break them up, then. Monopolies are just as bad when they are consuming entities rather than producing (or selling) entities.

Some of them are natural monopsonies. Can a town support four competing grain elevators? Parts of the food chain are operated by agricultural cooperatives, owned by farmers, to get around such physical bottlenecks.[1] This is a complicated area. Much political controversy, dating back over a century.

The farmer position: [2]

The American Enterprise Institute position: [3]

An intermediate position: [4]

[1] https://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2021/01/04/snapshot-top...

[2] https://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2023/11/13/farmers-are-...

[3] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/stop-paying-att...

[4] https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/apr/04/elizabeth-...

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#177

Post by anonymouskimmer »

prepend wrote: post #169
anonymouskimmer wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LOL.

Not being glib. I’ve read quite a bit of Taleb’s stuff and it sounds like an observation based on how long he’s been aware of the market. Usually if he’s talking about history so if he meant some long term based on analysis, I would expect him to call it out.

Thanks for the clarification.

Market based then, and time scales do matter, as we see now with the issue to entire generations in finding affordable housing.

The problem with a market based approach is that when things genuinely do become limited, people substitute or do without. And thus market watchers like Taleb don't notice that something that busted is now fully bust (or has become a luxury item).

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#178

Post by mschuster91 »

Animats wrote: post #176
mschuster91 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to break them up, then. Monopolies are just as bad when they are consuming entities rather than producing (or selling) entities.

Some of them are natural monopsonies. Can a town support four competing grain elevators? Parts of the food chain are operated by agricultural cooperatives, owned by farmers, to get around such physical bottlenecks.[1] This is a complicated area. Much political controversy, dating back over a century. The farmer position: [2] The American Enterprise Institute position: [3] An intermediate position: [4] [1] https://www…

> Can a town support four competing grain elevators? Parts of the food chain are operated by agricultural cooperatives, owned by farmers, to get around such physical bottlenecks.

Yeah, but that's what solid antitrust policies, audits and enforcement are for - at least in theory. Someone has to play police after all, to make sure that everyone can reasonably participate in any truly free market. The problem is that most anti-trust legislation is more aimed at large, nation-scale corporations and even there, enforcement is lacking, but small, regional monopolies/monopsonies or other threats to a free marked are a complete Darwinist world.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#179

Post by telotortium »

mschuster91 wrote: post #178
Animats wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of them are natural monopsonies. Can a town support four competing grain elevators? Parts of the food chain are operated by agricultural cooperatives, owned by farmers, to get around such physical bottlenecks.[1] This is a complicated area. Much political controversy, dating back over a century. The farmer position: [2] The American Enterprise Institute position: [3] An intermediate position: [4] [1] https://www…

> Can a town support four competing grain elevators? Parts of the food chain are operated by agricultural cooperatives, owned by farmers, to get around such physical bottlenecks. Yeah, but that's what solid antitrust policies, audits and enforcement are for - at least in theory. Someone has to play police after all, to make sure that everyone can reasonably participate in any truly free market. The problem is that mo…

Antitrust isn't a panacea. Sometimes you have to deal with the fact that certain companies are natural monopolies or monopsonies.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#180

Post by Animats »

telotortium wrote: post #179
mschuster91 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can a town support four competing grain elevators? Parts of the food chain are operated by agricultural cooperatives, owned by farmers, to get around such physical bottlenecks. Yeah, but that's what solid antitrust policies, audits and enforcement are for - at least in theory. Someone has to play police after all, to make sure that everyone can reasonably participate in any truly free market. The problem is that mo…

Antitrust isn't a panacea. Sometimes you have to deal with the fact that certain companies are natural monopolies or monopsonies.

Yes. Hence regulated public utilities, public roads, and railroad regulation.
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