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Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

wolfstreet.com

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Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#111

Post by pixl97 »

Hayvok wrote: post #80
cgb223 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why was China paying so much more? Just to ensure they would have enough for their needs?

That's what I'm curious about — everybody went up significantly in 2022, but if China was paying double for imports, then why wasn't everybody else having to pay double as well? China procures most of their lithium through trade, so they're tapping the same global markets as everybody else.

Where is lithium made versus where is it used.

For example if there was not enough shipping routes to China from where it's made then that could be an issue. Or if their demand was up, and there wasn't enough unloading capacity for lithium (not sure how this is being shipped over there) then there can be price spikes.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#112

Post by jeffbee »

throwitaway222 wrote: post #110
jeffbee wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think I switched arguments. They are the same argument to me. For example the reason that we don't have enough homes in America is not because we literally forgot how to nail boards together to make a house, it is because we gradually accreted a system where it takes 5+ years to get permission to do it. The bureaucratic capacity to begin building is key, and on the critical path of actual production.

Actually no, we really did forget how to nail boards together. Skilled labor vanished as other wages rose. Making a new house used to actually cost less than buying an existing one. Today, the calculation has changed, and it is more expensive, mostly because of the labor costs. They're only able to build in areas where there are fewer available jobs so there's no price pressure. Literally people leaving the skilled t…

Sorry but the data isn't on your side. The population-weighted time to get a housing permit in California, as the most extremely bogus example, is well over 4 years. This information is available from California HCD's online dashboard.

The driving force behind high construction prices is soft costs and contractor profits. Labor costs in construction have been roughly inline with overall labor inflation across all industries. See https://twitter.com/FactChecker23/status/1730738575292113347...

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#113

Post by seanmcdirmid »

bee_rider wrote: post #64
firebat45 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you look at where the overwhelming majority of lithium batteries are produced, it makes sense to use China as the benchmark (and why it pays more than the US or Europe).

It isn’t obvious to me (although, I am dumb about this stuff) why China would pay more for lithium if they (presumably) use more… wouldn’t we expect economies of scale and all that to make it cheaper for them?

China isn't an open market, there is resistance getting Lithium from outside of China into China. Trade needs to happen, some people don't want that trade to happen, Australia had some issues with China last year, Bolivia doesn't really have any ports, port capacity is an issue, speculators might also be bailing out of real estate and their money is now sloshing around in commodities.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#114

Post by danans »

nostrademons wrote: post #56
danans wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other expensive materials in the cathode, manufacturing costs, and the anode are most of the major costs. A visualization: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost...

Lithium is part of the cathode. Looks like it was more like ~20% in 2022, though it may be down closer to 10% now that the price spike is subsiding: https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/lithium-ion-batterie... Of note: raw materials are now ~2/3 of the total price of a battery cell, because of the continued plunge in manufacturing costs. And it's pretty well distributed across the different raw materials used. Tha…

Also, The OP asked about EV battery prices, which are about more than the cell, and also include the price of the pack/enclosure, which is 25% of the cost and hasn't budged much in the last few years [1]. Maybe structural battery packs will eliminate this cost completely in the future.

And then there is the reality that most EVs are still being designed and marketed as upmarket luxury cars, and not with the goal of maximizing mass adoption of EVs in the near term.

The market for EVs is the market for higher end new vehicles today. Therefore even as battery prices drop, other factors will probably keep the prices pretty high in the near future.

1. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/01/record-low-ev-battery-p....

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#116

Post by amelius »

nicoburns wrote: post #39
Eumenes wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How challenging is it to DIY your own lithium battery packs?

It's definitely doable. There are plenty of tutorials out there on the internet. But like others have said, there's plenty that can go wrong if you don't get it right (a fire that can't be put out). Personally I would consider building one myself, but there's no way I'd keep it in my house (it would be going in a fireproof metal shed at the bottom of the garden or similar). And tbh, that's probably more trouble (and…

How do you know the commercial ones are safe?

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#117

Post by wardedVibe »

nemo44x wrote: post #69
throwitaway222 wrote: post #62

Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???

I mean, that's sort of smart isn't it? Wouldn't you rather use someone else's resources instead of your own for as long as you can? Additionally, the deposit becomes a strategic reserve to control prices when needed.

Because battery tech is evolving fast, and lithium could quickly become far less valuable...

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#118

Post by xbmcuser »

nostrademons wrote: post #56
danans wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other expensive materials in the cathode, manufacturing costs, and the anode are most of the major costs. A visualization: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost...

Lithium is part of the cathode. Looks like it was more like ~20% in 2022, though it may be down closer to 10% now that the price spike is subsiding: https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/lithium-ion-batterie... Of note: raw materials are now ~2/3 of the total price of a battery cell, because of the continued plunge in manufacturing costs. And it's pretty well distributed across the different raw materials used. Tha…

Maybe not for current chemistry lithium batteries but for batteries in general prices will probably keep dropping as they find different ways to save cost like using sodium instead of lithium. As solar and wind electricity production keeps getting cheaper and more home installations keep happening I think the demand for cheap home stationary batteries will start growing exponentially.

Hopefully we are not far from the tipping point cheap batteries are needed for it to happen though where world yearly electricity consumption growth can be met by renewables alone and we can start closing more and more coal power plants.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#119

Post by vlovich123 »

jeffbee wrote: post #112
throwitaway222 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually no, we really did forget how to nail boards together. Skilled labor vanished as other wages rose. Making a new house used to actually cost less than buying an existing one. Today, the calculation has changed, and it is more expensive, mostly because of the labor costs. They're only able to build in areas where there are fewer available jobs so there's no price pressure. Literally people leaving the skilled t…

Sorry but the data isn't on your side. The population-weighted time to get a housing permit in California, as the most extremely bogus example, is well over 4 years. This information is available from California HCD's online dashboard. The driving force behind high construction prices is soft costs and contractor profits. Labor costs in construction have been roughly inline with overall labor inflation across all ind…

California definitely has a housing problem and looking at its data is a worst case scenario that’ll skew your perception of what it’s like in America as a whole - this mine is in Nevada not California.

Also, I think the state has taken some positive action against NIMBY legislation but it will be a long fight to undo it. If things keep going SF is likely to run afoul of the build-positive regulations and end up suing the state/developers to fight needing to be in compliance. But again don’t see the relevance of California housing which is a municipal / state level issue to mining in Nevada on federal lands.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#120

Post by otherme123 »

passwordoops wrote: post #42
gumby wrote: post #35

As famously predicted by Julian Simon back in the 70s and 80s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the article points out it's just good old fashioned speculation in the commodities market! Clearly there was a massive bubble over the past couple of years driven by hype. The spot price is still higher than 2020

Everyone can recognize a bubble once it pops. But the last three years, what you call "bubble" was rational (?) speculation that lithium 1) was going to be needed on a massive scale and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined.

Also, between 2020 and 2023 we have a ~20% inflation, and the price is not yet stable.

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