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Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

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61–70 of 184 posts

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#61
If you are like me and found the editorialization a bit much from this article but want to know more I highly recommend The Limiting Factor on YouTube. https://youtu.be/xEY_CMUb8jY?si=1wWmG83NfuBSNeKZ

Another one off that helped me get up to speed with understanding lithium was a guest lecture recently streamed at CWU on Exploring the Origin of Economic Lithium Deposits by PhD Rachel Hampton

https://www.youtube.com/live/inq_ypJeiZk?si=LTQFGR07d-ypiS6_

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#62
Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#63
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How challenging is it to DIY your own lithium battery packs?

How good are you at putting out fire that doesn't mind getting wet?

You can use LFP cells (don't suffer from thermal runaway) with a good BMS to avoid this risk.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#64
post #38

> The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, trading in Shanghai and serving as a benchmark I'm not sure why the Shanghai price is being used as the global benchmark without any qualification in this article, because in 2022 China was paying 2x per KG more than the U.S.A. and Europe. Everybody saw a significant increase, but nobody quite like China, where it looks like a bubble. Prices have come down globally…

When you look at where the overwhelming majority of lithium batteries are produced, it makes sense to use China as the benchmark (and why it pays more than the US or Europe).

It isn’t obvious to me (although, I am dumb about this stuff) why China would pay more for lithium if they (presumably) use more… wouldn’t we expect economies of scale and all that to make it cheaper for them?

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#65
post #14

Clickbaiting heading. The price is still 300% compared to the low in August 2020.

In that time, global EV sales have increased by over 450%: https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicle...

The prevailing opinion was that lithium would stay expensive or go up even more. The price also has not stabilized and may well continue to drop; this is an in-progress update.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you look at where the overwhelming majority of lithium batteries are produced, it makes sense to use China as the benchmark (and why it pays more than the US or Europe).

It isn’t obvious to me (although, I am dumb about this stuff) why China would pay more for lithium if they (presumably) use more… wouldn’t we expect economies of scale and all that to make it cheaper for them?

Only if speculators don’t ruin everyone’s fun betting from the sidelines in volumes that outpace the influence of legitimate trade.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you look at where the overwhelming majority of lithium batteries are produced, it makes sense to use China as the benchmark (and why it pays more than the US or Europe).

It isn’t obvious to me (although, I am dumb about this stuff) why China would pay more for lithium if they (presumably) use more… wouldn’t we expect economies of scale and all that to make it cheaper for them?

1. You have transportation costs. 2. I believe their economy was in a shutdown somewhat so market was askew. 3. If they are the major buyer but lithium being sold to them is monopolistic market structure in its origins then supplier can set the price. 4. They buy lithium in long term contracts so spot price is probably a proxy for whats at the margins as opposed to what the big companies are paying. 5. Speculators.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you look at where the overwhelming majority of lithium batteries are produced, it makes sense to use China as the benchmark (and why it pays more than the US or Europe).

It isn’t obvious to me (although, I am dumb about this stuff) why China would pay more for lithium if they (presumably) use more… wouldn’t we expect economies of scale and all that to make it cheaper for them?

Scale isn't instant.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#69

Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???

I mean, that's sort of smart isn't it? Wouldn't you rather use someone else's resources instead of your own for as long as you can? Additionally, the deposit becomes a strategic reserve to control prices when needed.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#70

Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???

Sitting on it makes sense when something could go up in price long-term. This is probably modern government inaction though.
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