An existential problem in the search for alien life

> hand wavy sci-fi speculation

"The Dark Forest" by Liu Cixin is sci-fi, but I don't think it's too hand-wavy. It presents a pretty logical answer to the Fermi Paradox, based on a couple obvious axioms.

Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_forest_hypothesis

> We have no idea if earthly life is average in the cosmos or some sort of freak outlier.

Well, no, but it's totally reasonable to behave as if it is mostly average, at least for now. Looking under the streetlight[0] is a perfectly good idea when you've only managed to cover, like, a tiny percentage of the street so far. Once you run out of optimism about finding earthlike life (or it's become so common so as to be boring) then it'll be good to have people with more out-there ideas, but the people looking for earthlike life aren't being stupid for focusing on stuff that we already understand a bit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect

I'll give you a fourth one.

There _are_ signs consistently that something has an understanding of physics and inertia that violate our understanding of such things, which implies our assumptions about distance of things in the universe are wrong.

Those vehicles appearance but lack of most interaction, lack of destruction implies something worse, that we are probably still such a primative civilization we're treated like zoo animals.

These conversations about the last century of the search for alien life in the light of David Grusch's testimony to Congress and the various and numerous UAP videos are.. interesting to say the least.

Thinking about this article and things like the Fermi paradox, I sometimes wonder if we're approaching things the wrong way?

Similar to how the current branch of life as we know it evolved on planet earth after what we assume was a large meteor impact and the resulting effects on the environment, what if the universe (or at least our local galaxy) was once much more populated and "busy", and then along came a cataclysmic event that wiped out the vast majority of life, resetting the stage for other more discrete, gentler and less energy hungry forms to thrive and exist. What if all those black holes and interesting space phenomena are the result of massively powerful weapons from a massive galactic scale confilct which literally destroyed entire solar systems by imploding stars? Or perhaps they are just clever physics tricks which fool outside observers into thinking there is nothing there, or what is there is so immensely dangerous/destructive that it's best to steer clear and leave well alone?

Furthermore, what if the majority of advanced life simply doesn't want to be found. Assuming that the development of other species in other worlds would roughly follow our own path (struggle for habitable space / usable resources), there would be an inherent distrust of other galactic civilisations at a percieved lower/higher level of development. The "dummies" would be avoided for (looks at today's news headlines) obvious reasons, and the more advanced civilisations would be an obvious threat which could not be defended against and so would not be targets for our exploration (a la "Dark Forest Theory" et al).

So, we're either in the first wave and we have some trouble headed our way sooner or later. Or we're in the second wave, and have likely been infiltrated culturally/genetically many millennia ago by the surviving intelligences (in whichever form, take your pick) from the first wave.

Forgive my rather crude treatment of the topic, I realise there is much more nuance and detail to these things. I simply present this idea in a rough form as a means to keep things within our realm of understanding.

Assuming that Earth was very average is a very rational place to start, but the reasonability of this assumption changes when we look elsewhere for life and fail to find it. Earth being average was once the basis for people assuming that other planets in our solar system might have intelligent civilizations; that has been almost entirely ruled out now (maybe there could be a civilization of space squid under the ice of Europa?) And we've failed to detect any radio signals that indicate life elsewhere in the stars near Earth. There's still a lot of searching left to be done, but each time we look and fail to find anything we should be updating our priors.