> I mean, re GOFAI, it's not like Transformers and DL are any less "logic problem" than Eurisko or Eliza were.
Hmm, they're not a complete anything but they're pretty different as they're not discrete. That's how we can teach them undefinable things like writing styles. It seems like a good ingredient.
Personally I don't think you can create anything that's humanlike without being embodied in the world, which is mostly there to keep you honest and prevent you from mixing up your models (whatever they're made of) with reality. So that really limits how much "better" you can be.
> That's not "unknown unknowns", that's just the problem of induction.
This is the exact argument the page I linked discusses. (Or at least the whole book is.)
> However, it's not like there's any alternative system of knowledge that can do better.
So's this. It's true; no system of rationalism can be correct because the real world isn't discrete, and none are better than this one, but also this one isn't correct. So you should not start a religion based on it. (A religion meaning a principle you orient your life around that gives it unrealistically excessive meaning, aka the opposite of nihilism.)
> I mean, I do think that, yes. Got any argument against it other than "lol sci-fi"?
That's a great argument. The book I linked calls it "reasonableness". It's not a rational one though, so it's hard to use.
Example: if someone comes to you and tries to make you believe in Russell's teapot, you should ignore them even though they might be right.
Main "logical" issue with it though is that it seems to ignore that things cost money, like where the evil AI is going to get the compute credits/GPUs/power bills to run itself.
But a reasonable real world analog would be industrial equipment, which definitely can kill you but we more or less have under control. Or cars, which we don't really have under control and just ignore it when they kill people because we like them so much, but they don't self-replicate and do run out of gas. Or human babies, which are self-replicating intelligences that can't be aligned but so far don't end the world.