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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

bradmunchen.substack.com

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Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#191

Post by wilg »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #167
theteapot wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely agree. This is why they are doing small scale closed doors trials in collaboration with a single private company ... Problems seem normal. "Hot mess" seems normal. They're not in production.

"Order now, you get the truck in 2 years" - Elon Musk 6 years ago.

They didn't take orders/deposits until 2022!

Also, who cares? Sometimes products take longer than usual. Especially ones that have never been done before, like a practical electric semi truck for chrissake!

Plus, they also had to move a lot of people to rework existing models to accommodate supply chain issues from Covid for like several years.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#192

Post by clouddrover »

wilg wrote: post #43

The author clearly has an angle here. Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. They've even said (in the Leno episode) they're going to rev the thing before going into full production. Plus battery degradation is well understood. Plus it's known there are multiple range editions of the Semi, they aren't all the 500mi version. Also obviously the taxpayers aren't paying for this vehicle program somehow. Wait a year…

> Wait a year and see how it's going.

It's already been six years:

https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/1/23488040/tesla-semi-deliv...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Semi

And almost one year since the first delivery.

One year from now will you say wait another year? Is this another "full self-driving" situation where the "updated, improved, it will work as advertised, this time for real" version is always one year away?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#193

Post by wilg »

jojobas wrote: post #166
Drblessing wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly right. We should be cheering and champion on the success of these very early and primitive electric trucks. Also, notice how much energy it takes to move them. The author states that the power station for these few trucks could power 28,000 homes. This is the reality of industry, it uses a lot of power. We need to keep increasing the electric grid for nuclear and renewables.

You can cheer on something that actually works, like Freightliner or Volvo.

Freightliner has delivered like 20 trucks I think, same as Tesla. And Volvo has possibly not delivered any?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#194

Post by wilg »

clouddrover wrote: post #192
wilg wrote: post #43

The author clearly has an angle here. Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. They've even said (in the Leno episode) they're going to rev the thing before going into full production. Plus battery degradation is well understood. Plus it's known there are multiple range editions of the Semi, they aren't all the 500mi version. Also obviously the taxpayers aren't paying for this vehicle program somehow. Wait a year…

> Wait a year and see how it's going. It's already been six years: https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/1/23488040/tesla-semi-deliv... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Semi And almost one year since the first delivery. One year from now will you say wait another year? Is this another "full self-driving" situation where the "updated, improved, it will work as advertised, this time for real" version is always one year a…

I mean I guess I wish they had gone faster? What's the problem here? They're trying to make and mass produce an electric semi truck.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#195

Post by reverse_no »

pengaru wrote: post #190
reverse_no wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is mental gymnastics. i really think HN would be better with a reputation system so that posts like these will be checked for accuracy after the fact. accounts that accumulate tons of wrong predictions can be labeled and easily ignored. it would help with this problem where a huge wave of the same wrong opinion floods the comments and everyone else gets greyed out. why do we let wave after wave after wave happen…

> i really think HN would be better with a reputation system so that posts like these will be checked for accuracy after the fact. accounts that accumulate tons of wrong predictions can be labeled and easily ignored. it would help with this problem where a huge wave of the same wrong opinion floods the comments and everyone else gets greyed out. why do we let wave after wave after wave happen without any accountabili…

the article is an example of an opinion that often shows up in comments. it would make sense to have a rank based on the accuracy of the sentiments of your posted links as well as comments. all of this would be difficult to implement but thats besides the point.

for example, if a guy constantly posted articles that explain why EVs can never be viable, and he did that 2010 to 2020 then it would be nice to have some convenient way of knowing that this persons links are usually not very useful. and if a person posted a bunch of links about a specific therapy years before it became a breakthrough treatment then i would want his links pushed to the top…

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#196

Post by wilg »

thsksbd wrote: post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

Hybrids don't solve the problem, you need zero-emission. This is for long-distance hauling.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#197

Post by clouddrover »

wilg wrote: post #193
jojobas wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can cheer on something that actually works, like Freightliner or Volvo.

Freightliner has delivered like 20 trucks I think, same as Tesla. And Volvo has possibly not delivered any?

Volvo has delivered trucks.

Here's one charging up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UAttTG03WA

Here's another one charging: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ovq4Tniknd4

Here are some more Volvo trucks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MquCx4VRV3Q

Here's Volvo driving electric trucks in Australia: https://www.volvotrucks.com.au/en-au/news/press-releases/202...

More Volvos in Australia. Apparently Volvo can't stop delivering: https://www.volvotrucks.com.au/en-au/news/press-releases/202...

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#198

Post by wilg »

clouddrover wrote: post #197
wilg wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Freightliner has delivered like 20 trucks I think, same as Tesla. And Volvo has possibly not delivered any?

Volvo has delivered trucks. Here's one charging up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UAttTG03WA Here's another one charging: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ovq4Tniknd4 Here are some more Volvo trucks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MquCx4VRV3Q Here's Volvo driving electric trucks in Australia: https://www.volvotrucks.com.au/en-au/news/press-releases/202... More Volvos in Australia. Apparently Volvo can't stop deliv…

I'm not saying the trucks don't physically exist, just that I can't find evidence of deliveries to customers.

Your approach to evidence here seems very lacking.

- The first one we don't know if it's a customer. Why couldn't it be a prototype? Some guy just saw it charging?

- The second one isn't a semi truck.

- The third one seems to be footage of people sitting in a demo truck of some kind from a PR event about opening a charging station with a pledge to buy some in the future.

Hardly seems like a slam dunk case that other people are all over this market.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#199

Post by pengaru »

reverse_no wrote: post #195
pengaru wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> i really think HN would be better with a reputation system so that posts like these will be checked for accuracy after the fact. accounts that accumulate tons of wrong predictions can be labeled and easily ignored. it would help with this problem where a huge wave of the same wrong opinion floods the comments and everyone else gets greyed out. why do we let wave after wave after wave happen without any accountabili…

the article is an example of an opinion that often shows up in comments. it would make sense to have a rank based on the accuracy of the sentiments of your posted links as well as comments. all of this would be difficult to implement but thats besides the point. for example, if a guy constantly posted articles that explain why EVs can never be viable, and he did that 2010 to 2020 then it would be nice to have some co…

Well, in lieu of a forum implementation automating that, you can already scrutinize a submitter's submission history via their profile.

In this particular case, it's their first and only submission, so what you're proposing would do absolutely nothing.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#200

Post by ianburrell »

jojobas wrote: post #76
pardoned_turkey wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of trains in the US are diesel-powered, although they're about 4x more efficient than trucks. It's tempting to imagine they could all run on electricity, but it's probably hard, as many routes go through hundreds of miles of rugged nothingness. This is quite different from rail transport in Europe.

There are very few places in the US that don't have 115kV+ lines somewhere nearby. http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/national_energy_gri... They follow the same valleys around heavy terrain etc. Feel free to superimpose the grid map and the rail map. So it's a matter of electric locomotives, poles, contact wires and transformers, no small feat but what can you do.

The rail companies are really resistant to electrifying lines. I think because they are focused on cutting costs and spending money would cut into profit. Unfortunately, that means that the government will likely have to pay for it or force them.

They have been looking into battery electric locomotives which don't make any sense except for switching yards. I read recently that there are electric and diesel locomotives which can use overhead power where available and switch to diesel when it isn't. That has the advantage that they can electrify lines incrementally.

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