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Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

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Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#301

Post by wernercd »

thinkingtoilet wrote: post #192
huntertwo wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize that would cause countless death _today_ if you don’t replace the oil with something else? People will starve, become homeless, and maybe anarchy will reign. Not just in the developed world but globally.

What do you think will happen if the temperatures keep rising, the oceans keep rising, and currently livable areas of land that hold billions of people become inhabitable?

The same thing that's continued to happen: We adapt and create solutions.

People have been screaming "everyone will die!!!" via religious based prophecies for... all of human history. The Cult Of Climate Change is no different: a little bit of truth and a lot of faith in Revelations and the unavoidable apocalypse.

Prophecies like "all the icecaps will be gone by 2020" and "billions will die from starvation" (hint: those forecasts failed)

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/18-spectacularly-wrong-apocal...

This is no different than the people who follow the pastor that's wrong about the date of Jesus' second coming. every year he looks at the numbers and says "next year, on x date". That date comes. and goes. and the faithful see the failed prophecy and he goes "oh look... I was wrong... it's really next year on y date". The faithful see this each year and their faith grows stronger as each failed prophecy means the next one MUST be true.

What do we think will happen? More failed prophecies. The Church of Climate Doom faithful becomes more convinced that theirs is the One True Faith as each prediction continues to prove them right.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#302

Post by acdha »

mikewarot wrote: post #272

Clearly we need to solve this problem, climate change is real, and it's here. However, we can't just stop using oil. It would lead to the death (by starvation) of most of humanity, mostly in the poorer parts of the world. We need a well managed transition away from fossil fuel inputs. One of the first things that should be shifted, as much as is possible, is from Industrial Farming which uses massive chemical inputs,…

> However, we can't just stop using oil

The single best move we could make would be progressively taxing it: tell everyone that today is the cheapest a gallon of gas will ever be, with guaranteed 20% annual price increases with the tax revenue devoted to assisting low-income households decarbonize. That would tell every business to start investing in alternatives or efficiency improvements, homeowners would shift towards things like heat pumps to save money, and you wouldn’t have as many auto buyers locking in 15-20 years of pollution buying a heavy industrial truck so they can cosplay as a rancher on the way into cubicle land. Toss in credits for carbon sinks and you’d have a good way to support the kind of farming you mention without constantly being underpriced by farmers relying on subsidized cheap oil.

Around the turn of the century, that was a Republican idea but since the fossil fuel industry successfully managed an ideological purge that’s now too politically incorrect to even mention in those circles.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#303

Post by seanmcdirmid »

FrankyHollywood wrote: post #292

All these comments mentioning cutting down on energy. It will help a bit, but the real problem is there are just to many people on earth. A world wide one-child policy like it used to exist in China [1] would be a real solution in keeping earth a pleasant place to live. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

Obviously putting humanity below replacement reproduction eventually causes it to disappear, then the planet will recover from whatever we did after a few million years.

But I don’t see how that will make it a better place to live for us. We know that birth rates already fall with higher standards of living, so if you want fewer kids just develop those countries where the birth rate is still high.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#304

Post by jtc331 »

jokoon wrote: post #98

It's odd how everytime somebody mentions slashing oil production by 50 or 75%, people are immediately up in arms. Same for red meat or cheap air travel. Western rich countries have too many really spoiled consumers. It's weird to say, but we should crash the economy if it can slow down climate change. I mean there are plenty people in other parts of the world who don't have such a high standard of living, and it's no…

> It's weird to say, but we should crash the economy if it can slow down climate change.

To save humanity we should destroy humanity.

No thanks.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#305

Post by afpx »

pc86 wrote: post #141
afpx wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, you’re saying the models that have been used and refined over decades have been wildly inaccurate? It’d be interesting to me to see that analysis. Maybe it’ll change my mind.

I didn't say that at all, clearly you're the one operating in bad faith now.

This is the stuff I'm talking about. I make a deduction, and you respond with a defensive statement and change the subject. I'm just looking for evidence of what you're implicitly claiming. Are the models accurate or not?

Anyway, probably just the inherent difficulty of trying to have a conversation online.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#306

Post by 21echoes »

pentae wrote: post #258
jokoon wrote: post #98

It's odd how everytime somebody mentions slashing oil production by 50 or 75%, people are immediately up in arms. Same for red meat or cheap air travel. Western rich countries have too many really spoiled consumers. It's weird to say, but we should crash the economy if it can slow down climate change. I mean there are plenty people in other parts of the world who don't have such a high standard of living, and it's no…

I'm going to guess you've never spent much time outside the bubble of the first world. After living extensively overseas in Latin America & South-east Asia and seeing how its part of everyday life for most people in the rest of the world to openly burn trash, plastics, car tyres.. litter everywhere, cutting the cat converters off their trucks, dumping construction waste straight into rivers.. it's been eye opening. N…

You can wax poetic all you want about anecdotal values differences between the first and third worlds, but speaking in terms of actual practical impact: what you are saying is simply not true. Greenhouse gas emissions scale super-linearly with income: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-world-s-top-1-of-emitte...

There are dozens and dozens of studies all reaching this same conclusion, if the International Energy Agency isn't good enough for you: https://www.google.com/search?q=greenhouse+gas+emissions+by+...

OP's point was that the global rich (most US citizens included) have lifestyles and patterns of consumption which produce an outsized amount of greenhouse gasses, and any attempts to alter those behaviors are routinely met with anger and political backlash

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#307

Post by the_optimist »

jokoon wrote: post #98

It's odd how everytime somebody mentions slashing oil production by 50 or 75%, people are immediately up in arms. Same for red meat or cheap air travel. Western rich countries have too many really spoiled consumers. It's weird to say, but we should crash the economy if it can slow down climate change. I mean there are plenty people in other parts of the world who don't have such a high standard of living, and it's no…

Is there perhaps nothing at all we should refrain from i the name climate change? Reset humanity to zero.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#308

Post by replygirl »

jfengel wrote: post #218
replygirl wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is a big one. there is a surgery i'll need within 10 years that i can't access in north america. i could definitely give up flight for play, probably for work, not for health

You could take a boat. It takes longer but you said it's not an emergency.

yeah i'd love if ocean liners were a thing again. afaik there's only one, and it's a ritzy and touristy affair

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#309

Post by beefield »

jokoon wrote: post #98

It's odd how everytime somebody mentions slashing oil production by 50 or 75%, people are immediately up in arms. Same for red meat or cheap air travel. Western rich countries have too many really spoiled consumers. It's weird to say, but we should crash the economy if it can slow down climate change. I mean there are plenty people in other parts of the world who don't have such a high standard of living, and it's no…

> It's weird to say, but we should crash the economy if it can slow down climate change.

It can't. I did the numbers some time ago [1], and they are bad. If you take electricity as a proxy, western countries consume something like 5 times as much as the global average per capita. So if we are willing to let the poorest to get to the global average while not cutting global consumption at all, the west should reduce their consumption by something like 80%. That's not crashing the economy. Thats... destroying the society most likely.

There are two solutions: 1. We force the global poor to stay poor. 2. We figure out how to make lots more stuff sustainably than we currently do.

Feel free to make your choise. Reducing consumption in the west is not going to make a dent anywhere and should be not on your list of worries if you choose 2.

Edit, add [1]: I don't habe the numbers now but you can replicate it pretty easly by taking population and electricity consumption data by country from wikipedia.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#310

Post by IG_Semmelweiss »

swader999 wrote: post #140
echelon wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a climate change denier. I'm very interested in climate science, I'm just not informed as I'd like to be. I edited my comment to include sources for things I knew off-hand. I left the core comment largely intact, just changing a few words to better flow with the sources. I want more information and reading around the questions I asked. From my understanding, it looks like we're about to enter a period that is…

Considering that the tropics only contain a third of the land mass it makes sense for humanity to not fight this warming.

Its possible to think that, but at the aame time the cost of adjustment would be trememndous.

I would think food costs would skyrocket before canada and siberia are pumping out grain in massive quantity.

Adjustment at that scale can also carry other risk such as disease and civil war.

Or nothing at all may happen

It really does depend on the rate of change.

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