How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s • Hacker News Board

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#421

Post by maximus-decimus » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 5:07 AM UTC

pid-1 wrote: post #99

famahar wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope we one day see a radical new form of raising children. Historically it was truly a village that raised a child. I never understood how my parents raised 5 children. But looking into it more, there was always a community of people that raised me. Community and mutual aid was huge in the small town in Ethiopia where my parents came from. Coming to Canada, that didn't change. Uncles, aunts, older cousins, long ti…

> I never understood how my parents raised 5 children. My 2*(grand)mother raised 11 children. From what I've heard from other family members, the key to success is not giving enough emotional and material support to each child. What I'm trying to say is: the expectations on children quality of life are also much higher vs 100 yrs ago.

My grand-grand-parents solution was to make my grand-mother drop school at 13 to help take care of the other kids.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#422

Post by ido » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 5:41 AM UTC

HDThoreaun wrote: post #167

inasio wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel experimented with communally raising children within the Kibbutz system, but as far as I know the results weren't super encouraging and few places still do it

Kibbutz's failed because there's no incentive to do any work, same with every other form of communism that's been tried. Reworking daycare to be a more holistic experience than it currently is is a very different idea.

Communal childcare in kibbutzim is not related to economic success - I know people who grew up like that, they gave up on it because the results for the kids were seen as negative. Even in rich kibbutzim with plenty of resources they've phased out communal childcare and children live with their parents.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#423

Post by ido » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 6:10 AM UTC

nonethewiser wrote: post #154

kredd wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sacrifice is a choice in this scenario. I think, I agree with the OP above, that one chooses to not to make that sacrifice (e.g. lifestyle change). Just the value of the sacrifice has been getting lower and lower every year for younger people.

My point is people are choosing kids because of a deeper responsibility and meaning. Not because the experience of raising kids is more fun than hanging out with friends or other alternatives. The parent in this scenario is not maximizing their enjoyment or personal satisfaction in the way someone choosing their hobbies is. That distinction did not seem observed when comparing the choice to raise children with the ch…

I won't talk for my entire generation, but I (40 years old) have 2 kids for absolutely selfish reasons - I feel love for them and having my kids makes me deeply happy[0] in a way that nothing else really did (not my career nor my hobbies or friends). The only thing that comparably increased my happiness is having a long term romantic partner.

[0] even if there are plenty instances where they also annoy me

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#424

Post by ido » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 6:13 AM UTC

devbent wrote: post #420

nonethewiser wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is people are choosing kids because of a deeper responsibility and meaning. Not because the experience of raising kids is more fun than hanging out with friends or other alternatives. The parent in this scenario is not maximizing their enjoyment or personal satisfaction in the way someone choosing their hobbies is. That distinction did not seem observed when comparing the choice to raise children with the ch…

I think your entire thesis is wrong. People are not having kids because they have good alternatives now. International travel is affordable for more and more people, regularly going to fine dining establishments is something accessible to most American software engineers, and the people left having kids are the ones either too poor to afford those good things anyways, or people who are knowingly giving them up in exc…

International travel and fine dining is absolutely not comparable to having kids in terms of the returns you get on these activities. I don't mean quantitatively, but qualitatively - you don't get the same kind of satisfaction from both.

The only thing I'd say is somewhat qualitatively comparable is being a in a loving relationship.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#425

Post by devbent » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 6:38 AM UTC

ido wrote: post #424

devbent wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your entire thesis is wrong. People are not having kids because they have good alternatives now. International travel is affordable for more and more people, regularly going to fine dining establishments is something accessible to most American software engineers, and the people left having kids are the ones either too poor to afford those good things anyways, or people who are knowingly giving them up in exc…

International travel and fine dining is absolutely not comparable to having kids in terms of the returns you get on these activities. I don't mean quantitatively, but qualitatively - you don't get the same kind of satisfaction from both. The only thing I'd say is somewhat qualitatively comparable is being a in a loving relationship.

> International travel and fine dining is absolutely not comparable to having kids in terms of the returns you get on these activities.

The returns are guaranteed, whereas a child can end up having negative returns at an almost endless scale. The potential downsides to having a child are endless, the upside is limited and finite.

Also w/o children retiring early is doable for the financially responsible, whereas having even a single child makes that difficult.

Being financially independent at 40 or so allows for a lot of options for self fulfillment. An almost endless array of meaningful causes around the world are in dire need of help.

The tl;dr is that for a lot of people the choice comes down to "travel the world and have sex on beaches while eating fine food" or "unknown baby that might bring joy or potentially ruin your life."

Is it any wonder rational people are choosing the path that allows them to travel, eat well, be financially stable, and find meaningful hobbies and activities?

Again, I believe what it comes down to now is that people have a choice. It isn't "get married -> have kids" but rather "find partner, figure out what to do next".

Heck marriage rates are also plummeting (which IMHO is bad news for social stability).

The lack of social support certainly makes the choice of having kids harder, but my #1 ask isn't government funded daycare, it would be a world where having a large familial support structure is the norm.

Honestly the hardest part of having a kid is that without family nearby, there is no down time.

Government programs can't help that capitalism spread families to the winds.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#426

Post by eiiddei » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 7:45 AM UTC

kjkjadksj wrote: post #241

nradov wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the US also tried to help other countries such as the Philippines and Iraq which haven't done nearly as well. US aid doesn't seem to be the decisive factor.

It seems like post war japan and south korea saw a lot of investment into their manufacturing. Why didn’t the philippines see a similar level of investment at the time considering it was also destroyed and in need for rebuilding? Not destroyed enough relative to the firebombings of the japan home islands perhaps?

Japan colonized, invaded, and stole Korea for about 35 years under the guise of imperialism. Japan's colonial policy was the most tyrannical, unauthorized, and vicious in that it aimed not only at socio-economic theft but also at ethnic extermination. The Japanese did not hesitate to revise the mental culture through history, suppress the use of the Korean language, and destroy national cultural heritage. The anti-Japanese independence struggle was so stubborn and steadfast that it became a model for minority peoples around the world and led to liberation. The detrimental effects of Japanese power on Korean history were so severe that they led to the division of Korea into North and South Korea.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#427

Post by NalNezumi » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 7:51 AM UTC

paulryanrogers wrote: post #418

throwaway6734 wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have lived through plague, famine, mass deaths caused by invasion, etc and still manage to raise and pass the torch to the next generation. Get over yourself.

Arguably many suffered and died young or lost young children. Some likely regretted having, or skipped having kids. It's completely legitimate to consider the societal costs and not only the benefits to birthing children.

Yeah and arguably, many survived to see the light on the other side of the tunnel.

It's completely legitimate in the same way as this argument is: "since there's a risk of me being hit by a car, or having an unpleasant day when I go outside, I better stay inside."

Overly focusing on the negative outcome to the point of inaction is often a thinly veiled excuse for some other often internal/personal reasons.

Doomerism doesn't have legitimacy because it's just a decaying idea. If ideas had an evolutionary tree, it is a recurring branch(leaf) that always died off while legitimately calling itself legitimate, every single time.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#428

Post by ido » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 8:00 AM UTC

devbent wrote: post #425

ido wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

International travel and fine dining is absolutely not comparable to having kids in terms of the returns you get on these activities. I don't mean quantitatively, but qualitatively - you don't get the same kind of satisfaction from both. The only thing I'd say is somewhat qualitatively comparable is being a in a loving relationship.

> International travel and fine dining is absolutely not comparable to having kids in terms of the returns you get on these activities. The returns are guaranteed, whereas a child can end up having negative returns at an almost endless scale. The potential downsides to having a child are endless, the upside is limited and finite. Also w/o children retiring early is doable for the financially responsible, whereas havi…

I'm ok with people choosing not having children & it's good that there's a choice.

I'm just pointing out (from personal experience, an experience someone who doesn't have kids doesn't have) that it's not a float happiness with traveling the world adding +1.5f and a child +4.3f. It's not comparable, not in the colloquial sense that one is a much bigger value than the other but literally in the sense that it's not the same quality/feeling/satisfaction.

It's true that you don't know what you're going to get (e.g. children with disabilities are a lot more challenging that healthy kids) but I think the materialistic approach ("should I take 4 vacation or raise 1 child?") is not conductive to finding happiness in life.

I agree regarding the challenges in our current system & government/societal support.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#429

Post by NalNezumi » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 8:08 AM UTC

nonethewiser wrote: post #136

kredd wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But doesn't raising kids also provide a big set of exciting experiences you are trading-of against? Maybe for you, but the value proposition isn’t there for me. There’s no indication that the world is willing to fix its global problems (climate change, housing problems and etc.), why would I also subscribe my child to this “fun”? It is weird to write that sentence, as I am generally a fairly optimistic person. But…

I have never seen this sort of extreme existential pessimism in real life (not online). Altering major life decisions like having children based on fears of a negative future. Im not sure if its just more commonly expressed online or if its more common in other place (Europe maybe?) or different age groups (teens or young adults?) but if I asserted this to people locally they would think im nuts. Another possibility…

I'm from Europe so maybe you're right about that part, but almost every girl in college had that opinion or at least partially agreed to it, age being around 18-25.

You shouldn't take OP at his word though. The glaring observation I had that was shared by many, many, is that this is a very age-group specific thing.

Even the most vocal ones of this existential pessimists stopped it at around 28-30 years old, when the question stopped being idealization but very personal.

Existential pessimism leading to life decisions are usually just an rationalized excuse for other, often more personal, situational and emotional, reasons.

"are humans rational or irrational? It's a trick question, humans are ratioanalizers. We make up our mind and then come up with a plausible reason and believe in it"

Existential dread is a catchy, relatable idea without any consequences.

Holding that idea when you're under 30 doesn't mean much because most people don't have any important life decision they can't postpone while holding it. As soon as the reality offers the consequence of said belief, people will actually have a serious thought about it.

Very few people I know that in the end decided to live child free at later age, claimed existential dread as the reason. Most people grew up enough to realize that it is ultimately a decision based on personal/ego reasons/preferences, a gut feeling, and trying to justify it with some limited scope "rationalization" is just kidding themselves

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#430

Post by FreshStart » Sat, Sep 02, 2023, 9:11 AM UTC

sho_hn wrote: post #93

kredd wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed completely, but I’ll add another point. About 50% of my friends are university+ educated women of different ethnicities, but all living in first world countries. We’re also all in our late 20s or 30s, so it’s becoming a “now or never” kind of dilemma for some of them. We used to make “oh it’s expensive!” excuse until we started making decent money. Now that excuse doesn’t work, but there has been a significant…

See, the thing is that I cannot entirely shake the feeling that part of this stance is a certain laziness/complacency, essentially a lack of interest in any challenging activities. What I mean is: A lot of the people who come down against child-rearing for lifestyle reasons assign a lot of value to things they'd rather do instead because they provide "great experiences I'd miss out on because I won't have time or mon…

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