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US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

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Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#181
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your link says it's a paraphrase rather than an exact quote. It still represents his sentiment accurately. But quoting Henry Ford, particularly his views on nefarious bankers, is a pretty questionable choice considering what he had to say about Jews.

This is a logical fallacy. His view on Jews has no effect on whether his statements on nefarious bankers are true. You can quote me saying 1+1=2, even if 2 is my favorite number. Now if he’s being misleading and you have evidence of that, then his feeling toward Jews might explain why he is biased

You misunderstand the scope of formal fallacies, which only apply to formal arguments. Most arguments aren't formal arguments, and that's ok; they aren't supposed to be. Instead of proving a conclusion from a set of premises, they rely on heuristics to draw probabilistic inferences.

In the context of a formal argument, the act of quoting Henry Ford would have been either the fallacy of appeal to authority (if the quote's provenance were meant to demonstrate its veracity), or the fallacy of bare assertion (if it were meant to stand on its own). I didn't invoke those fallacies because I understand that, outside the context of a formal argument, appeal to authority is a reasonable heuristic, rather than a fallacy. There's nothing fallacious about saying, for example: "Most doctors recommend getting vaccinated, so you should probably get vaccinated."

In this context, my reply is also not fallacious: it's reasonable to doubt the reasoning ability of a vicious anti-Semite, particularly on the subject of nefarious bankers, which is closely intertwined with anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#182

As a parent with kids, I really don't know how folks are getting by with the prices of everything. I know folks who keep eating out, buying new vehicles, and even building new houses and I'm left scratching my head wondering how they afford all of this. I'm not saving nearly as much as I was years ago and I think my "lifestyle" has decreased post COVID (few vacations, eating out is a treat, gifts are for birthdays/ho…

Many SWE, for example, are getting good salaries so they can definitely afford that. Just a few hundred samples cam skew one's observations.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#183
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know how most people are doing it. For me it's because the asset bubble has inflated my stock income. I suspect a lot of folks who owned homes, stocks and other assets are feeling the wealth effect. For the rest of society, I don't know why they're not in the streets with pitchforks.

One of the biggest opponent of minimum wage increase are the one who's in that category. 43% of Ohio voters voted against their own interest last week. Majority of them are in lower side of the income.

>43% of Ohio voters voted against their own interest last week. Majority of them are in lower side of the income.

What makes you think that raising the minimum wage would be in their interest? A comprehensive study[1] that factored in hours worked found that even though average hourly wage increased, hours worked went down, so total pay actually went down.

[1] https://www.nber.org/papers/w23532

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t have the option for the company to just sell enough stock to pay the taxes on the RSUs once they vest?

No. Max withholding on RSUs is something like 22% so I have to make up the difference or owe tens of thousands at the end of the year.

When I was at Amazon (ie until last Friday). We had three options - sell all, sell enough to cover taxes, or sell none of it and pay taxes - some other kind of way that I never looked into.

Even if that’s not the case, what’s stopping you from selling enough stock yourself once they vest and make quarterly payments?

My tax rate was 22%+7.3% FICA near the end when I moved to Florida - a state with no state income tax.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is accurate. Once the unit price is calculated with the temporarily higher input price, they are not going to reduce the unit price for as long as possible, even if input prices go down. And what's worse? The FED does not want negative CPI. They want slowly rising CPI. A negative CPI is deflation, something they want to absolutely avoid. They don't want prices to go down. They only want them to rise up slower. W…

It’s a pretty easy problem to solve, just have wages increase automatically on an annual basis in line with changes to the CPI. That would be in addition to any raises due to good job performance or a promotion. Or even on a monthly basis during periods of high inflation. Obviously, companies avoid this simple solution because they make money on the delay between raising the price of the product they sell and when th…

Yep. Companies want all the burden to fall on employees while the profits go to execs and shareholders.

Any solution that would be fair to the employees will immediately be met with resistance.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#186
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of people get into a mindset that a 25 year mortgage is meant to be paid off in 25 years, so that mindset guides their entire frame of reference for how large a lifestyle to adopt. I’m not saying to rush through a mortgage. Do whatever you want. But consider not getting into a situation where you’re somehow struggling even though you’re one of the lucky few who can afford to even own a home. When times…

Paying off your mortgage with an interest rate less than inflation is a mathematically verifiable horrible idea. You're short the dollar deeply. Keep that short position for as long as you can because on a long enough horizon you'll be right so long as the Fed continues to manipulate the market. That doesn't necessarily mean lever up. But it does mean take that extra X% you'd put into your mortgage and place it in so…

How you divide up your money isn’t really interesting. Yes, do the math.

What’s interesting is the idea that some people take on a lifestyle based on their income and they leave themselves no flexibility.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> is a _LOT_ of debt being added, household debt is up to something like 17 trillion dollars Household debt to GDP is around at a multi-decade low [1]. Payments as a fraction of disposable income, similarly low [2]. Total debt is rising [3]. But non-housing debt rose 5.8% from Q2 2022 to the same quarter '23; that's about inflation. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/…

GDP isn't a good metric to compare household debt to. The US has an incredibly unequal society (see Gini index) and a lack of welfare compared to other Western countries. In aggregate, it means that debt is likely higher for households where that matters. The poor.

Solid point. With inequality like it is, we really need to use metrics like median household debt and income to make any sort of meaningful conclusions.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a _LOT_ of debt being added, household debt is up to something like 17 trillion dollars from like under 10 trillion pre pandemic. IMHO vehicles are huge drivers of debt. There are almost no cars under $30k now, and the average sale price of new cars is pushing up near $50k. This is for bog standard stuff like Hondas and Fords, not luxury cars. Used cars are incredibly expensive too. People are financing cars…

> There is a _LOT_ of debt being added, household debt is up to something like 17 trillion dollars from like under 10 trillion pre pandemic Consumer debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income - is at 5.6%. In 2016 it was around 5.5%-5.6% - despite far lower interest rates. The same figure was 5.6-6% in the 1995-2000 years. Household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal incom…

> The US has gotten dramatically wealthier in the past seven years. That's how people are affording everything.

top X% got dramatically wealthier.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#189

I feel blessed to work in Tech, where -- however bad the economy is -- most of us dont face absolute deprivation as those in some other industries. That said, basic expectations of things growing up are just unreachable for many. My parents lived much more comfortable lives than I do. My grandparents even more so. Recall how food inflation was a major suspected cause of the Arab Spring ( https://www.pbs.org/newshour/…

My parents lived much more comfortable lives... grandparents even more so... Interesting how you stopped at "grandparents". To be clear, absolutely not intended as any kind of attack on you or what you've written - just some thoughts passed on to me that made it easier to be grateful for that which is in my life, period: Consider past generations - we're in "the 1%" by that metric alone. No / hardly (any "real") medi…

1000% agree with you that things were much worse once we go beyond grandparents. Just antibiotics and democracy alone have improved every person's life.

>> AFAIK is from Bill Maher: If you think you have it tough, read history books.

Be careful when Conservatives tell you to be complacent or grateful. There is a typical line "you are worrying about your $15hr minimum wage when kids half your age work in coal mines".

You can use such arguments for all sorts of nefarious purposes "you think your public school is overcrowded? go to Africa" "you think healthcare in the US is bad? go to rural Nepal" "you think crime is high in SF? go to 1800s NYC"

But why should we aspire to that? Why not aspire to more?

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