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None of these sources describe this alleged "Moctezuma cycle" that was mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing
Sometimes spelled as Montezuma, or Aztec cycle. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-climate-cycles-which...
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Sometimes spelled as Montezuma, or Aztec cycle. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-climate-cycles-which...
None of those terms appear in the article you cited.
Try this: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sunspot-cycle...
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The current short term (5 year) climate thinking is that conditions (land + ocean temps, storms, etc) will worsen for "a few years" and then lighten up a little with a slight reduction and general plateau for a few more years. The ratcheting upward saw toothing is a feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern .. and the world is just now moving into the upturn phase. Climate dynamics are akin to the te…
I agree with the first sentence and disagree with the second, and the citations also disagree with the second sentence, because we are moving into a downturn phase. And I love the third sentence because I had to read it twice. :) There are lots of disagreements about whether it will be 2024 or 2025 that the ENSO cycle gets cooler but there is zero disagreement that solar radiation will start decreasing next year. htt…
> there is zero disagreement that solar radiation will start decreasing next year.
This is not supported by any of your three links; two are on ENSO, the third on solar magnetic activity (unrelated to the solar visible spectrum energy -> IR energy that drives climate change)
From the nasa solar link:
* “There is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity,”
( 'solar activity' referes to sunspots, flares, etc. NOT to radiant energy in the visible spectrum )
* But even if the Sun dropped into a grand minimum, there’s no reason to think Earth would undergo another Ice Age;
( NASA scientists do not believe that solar mag activity is related to climate changes )
* not only do scientists theorize that the Little Ice Age occurred for other reasons,
( again, the European "Little Ice Age" not related to sun spots )
* but in our contemporary world, greenhouse gases far surpass the Sun’s effects when it comes to changes in Earth’s climate.
Actual flucuations of the suns visible spectrum activity are very very small compared to other more dominant effects.
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The current short term (5 year) climate thinking is that conditions (land + ocean temps, storms, etc) will worsen for "a few years" and then lighten up a little with a slight reduction and general plateau for a few more years. The ratcheting upward saw toothing is a feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern .. and the world is just now moving into the upturn phase. Climate dynamics are akin to the te…
None of these sources describe this alleged "Moctezuma cycle" that was mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing
I'm sticking to the expected behaviour from climate scientists; sunspots and Aztec cycles aren't my department (see my peer comment on solar magnetic activity & climate quoting NASA scientists on their opinions re: .. )
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Hopefully you are joking and not intentionally committing a hate crime by using the "b**er" word to disparage against the chronologically challenged
Hey, my mom's a boomer, some of my greatest idols were boomers. It's not a term of disparagement, she's chronologically gifted! As long as we get her a good AC unit and keep it maintained, she'll probably live longer than average.
„Parts of Italy reached temperatures up to 48C“ This has been debunked. The 48 degree reported was land surface temperature, not air temperature that is usually reported. https://skepticalscience.com/land-air-difference.html
Just for tonga folks. I remember reading this yesterday and they calculated that the effect of tonga only make at best 0.1 degree C increase in temperature. However what human did is 1.x degree C. That is order of magnitude difference => tonga is almost irrelevant. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/summer-2023-extreme-heat-causes edit: previous claimed 2.x is in degree F, here we global citizens use international standard…
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I’m sure it was deeply unpleasant for my ancestors and I’m currently thinking the world may be up being way more unpleasant for my descendants than it was for me.
The point this sub thread is that people always had reason to suspect this and at all previous time it was an error.
My grandfather lived through ww2 m, which was a HEAVILY predicted event filled with doomsaying right after WW1, and it was a point of debate.
It wasn’t a pleasant experience, lots of people didn’t make it and entire communities were destroyed, for them it was the end.
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So based on a single datapoint you have concluded that an event can never happen? “It didn’t rain today, so it never will”.
No, I am saying that history is full of people saying "it's raining today, better not have kids so they don't die in the flood" and that has never been the right answer in retrospect.
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Starvation and war. And hubris, of course. Same as every other time human civilizations have collapsed.
Has there ever been a global civilization collapse? We seem a bit unprecedented. I think that 50 years from now the global average life expectancy will be greater than now. Certainly not decades less than today’s average. Perfectly happy to wager money through augur or some other wonky long bet system as this seems like a total easy win.
Civilization collapse = whenever the way a civilization is run, can't be sustained any longer.
Often worsened by a ruling elite only looking after themselves, while ignoring their societies' bigger problems. And sometimes (unexpected?) external events.
The "unsustainable" is pretty much a given right now.
So 'the ship has to be turned', quick.
Otherwise civilization collapse will (logically, inevitably) follow. Just like in past collapses. Only this time, global scale.
I prefer "turn ship around, quick" option over "widespread crop failures, chaos, wars, famine & other disasters".