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Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

abc.net.au

81–90 of 189 posts

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#81
Not dismissing Global Heating, I’d point out that Northern Argentina, Western Paraguay have both semi arid savannas and steppes to arid desert climates. It is not no stranger to high temperature anytime of year, neither to the sudden steep subtropics warm up midwinter known locally as ‘veranito' [little summer].

Here in SE SA plateau it's been a normal to cooler winter.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#82
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lifespan of everyone reading this has decreased by several decades.

Hyperbole doesn't help anyone. Are things worse than what the IPCC is letting on? Absolutely, yes, but saying everyone's gona die from it is ridiculous. Most reading this will merely be inconvenienced. Some will lose houses to wildfires or hurricanes, but most will swealter a bit more than they would have otherwise. The only people who really have to worry are those in the tropics living with unreliable power grids a…

The problem is not ACs, the problem is having water and growing food.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#83

Part of this may have been due to the Hunga Tonga eruption which injected an tremendous amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1685971656198545408 https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unpr...

I feel like there must be some other influence here, and the Tonga eruption is a good candidate. That's not to say this isn't already exacerbated by existing human-derived climate change, but the way the temperature leaps off the chart starting in April is not like the gradual upward trend we see with climate change. It makes utterly no sense from that perspective. Something external to climate change has to be influ…

“ Unfortunately, it also seems like a lot of people are hesitant to even discuss this possibility for fear of being ostracized by the mob.”

This assessment is the same that a climate denier would make - it’s essentially climate gas lighting. Why do I say this?

Because the real reason it’s hard to discuss events with nuance is the highly vocal contingent of climate deniers that are looking for any single word or event that can be twisted to obfuscate the issue - first deny climate change, then to claim it’s not that bad etc etc.

That is the actual reason people are careful discussing climate, nothing to do with fear of ostracism. they’re rightly worried that the vocal anti-science people will twist their words.

The only people who fear getting ostracized are those doing the word twisting, the others are simply hesitant to give the Ron desantis types sounds bites to twist.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#84
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is going to cause everyone reading this to die decades earlier?

Starvation and war. And hubris, of course. Same as every other time human civilizations have collapsed.

Has there ever been a global civilization collapse? We seem a bit unprecedented.

I think that 50 years from now the global average life expectancy will be greater than now. Certainly not decades less than today’s average.

Perfectly happy to wager money through augur or some other wonky long bet system as this seems like a total easy win.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The worldwide anomaly in 2023 is about 0.9 degrees C from the mean since 1979, not 2.x. Furthermore, the 2023 anomaly from the last decade mean is about 0.3 degrees C. The 2023 anomaly from 2022 is 0.18 degrees, which is close to what they predicted the Tonga eruption would cause. One of the best ways to fight climate change is to not make up numbers out of thin air. There has to be trust for people to begin to chang…

> One of the best ways to fight climate change is to not make up numbers out of thin air I can tell you one of the best ways to fight climate change is not to spend 0 time reading someone's source to see what's going on with their numbers and accusing them of purposefully exaggerating instead. That's just using the guise of Wikipedia expertise to be lazy and stop a conversation before it starts From their article, th…

[deleted]

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#86
post #84
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Starvation and war. And hubris, of course. Same as every other time human civilizations have collapsed.

Has there ever been a global civilization collapse? We seem a bit unprecedented. I think that 50 years from now the global average life expectancy will be greater than now. Certainly not decades less than today’s average. Perfectly happy to wager money through augur or some other wonky long bet system as this seems like a total easy win.

> Has there ever been a global civilization collapse?

First time for everything.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#87

Do I misunderstand their numbers? It looks like in Buenos Aires historical maximum for Aug is +35 degrees, right? And so far it got only up to 30 degrees? Not to say the heat is not real ofc. Where I am the summer is super hot, in July it came within less than 1 degree of all time maximum on record for the month, though I don't think it broke the record after all... and this with up to 70% humidity, I nearly passed o…

I'm located near Buenos Aires. There was a similar hot spell several weeks ago, mid-July. Record high in July is (according to Wikipedia) 30.2C, and I don't have the data but this record could have been very well exceeded during those extremely warm days.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#88
post #2

The current sea temperature anomaly is extreme. You can see it plotted since 1980 here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ The dark black line that diverges in March is this year to date.

it may indeed be unprecedented - but this type of chart could do a better job of showing that. here's what I mean: we know that temperature has been increasing steadily for 140 years. So we expect each year can be higher than the previous one. And in an El Niño year, higher even. This chart shows that happening. What it doesn't show (clearly) is how high this year is vs. the previous year - and, importantly, whether…

I agree it’s not great. However, you may have missed it but the key in interactive you can click on individual years and groups of years you see the trends. 2021 and 2022 are also quite distinctive lines. So it’s easy to see from the data how large an anomaly 2023 is.

Enabling individual years lines in sequence, 1998 was a major jump from what came before as was parts of 2015, and 2016. But 2023 is still a huge jump which going from past patters will settle down for a few years before becoming the new normal.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#89
post #19

I came across this hypothesis a few years ago and thought it was an interesting possibility, but that there wasn't any data that really supported it. In light of the data of the last few months I honestly can't think of a hypothesis that better explains what is going on with ocean temperature, especially in regions that should be in winter right now. https://theethicalskeptic.com/2020/02/16/the-climate-change-... It'…

Gave it about 5 minutes, left me with a strong crackpot energy, even with the disclaimer a little bit in. The length seems to affect the authors ability to make a cohesive argument, even when I set my bias against length aside. I closed the tab after I saw the claim its the only way to explain increased CO2 PPM during [March / April 2020]. Figure 1A is "substantial jump in carbon ppm each year from 15 Feb through 1 A…

Sure, I felt similarly when I read it 3 years ago. But the problem is that there is not a single atmospheric model that can explain the magnitude, rapidity, and localization of the current warming. This does all three and I don't see why the mechanism for it is impossible. The fact that Antarctic sea ice is plummeting when there hasn't been any significant atmospheric warming at the South Pole is remarkable and deserves a lot of scrutiny.

And figure 1A is referring to the heat contribution to the Northern hemisphere where the vast majority of seasonal CO2 landmass sequestration occurs. The author isn't saying the sun gets hotter in March.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#90
post #4

An interesting phenomenon drowned in a clickbait article. I sometimes understand the lunatics of the "climate change is a hoax" movement.

Explain how this is clickbait.

Its filled with anxiety and emotions. I am completely turn off by this. Despite thet fact that I acknowledge climate change. Its approach is based on emotions and not clear well though actions.
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