Live data from Hacker News

Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

abc.net.au

151–160 of 189 posts

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#151
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

// Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids. When I came to the US in the 90s, one of my teachers was freaking out about peak oil and about how people shouldn't have kids because that would exacerbate the problem and those kids would have a bad life. Joke's on him I guess. I suspect that at every single point of human history, someone was dismal about something and using it as a reason to not…

As a 90s kid a remember peak oil. It was taught every where except in one class - economics. The teacher was adamant we would never run out of oil because as the supply dwindled the cost would go up and new oil or other forms of energy would be found. Makes perfect sense now but at the time this was not the norm. Economics ended up being my favorite class. Slightly related he also predicted the internet bubble collap…

Yes peak oil is a good example of predictions being wrong, it does not mean anything for other predictions of doom.

Dire warnings about things going on in Europe in the 1930s proved to be very true and incredibly costly and horrible for most everyone and from talking to people that had to deal with the aftermath.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#152
post #97

„Parts of Italy reached temperatures up to 48C“ This has been debunked. The 48 degree reported was land surface temperature, not air temperature that is usually reported. https://skepticalscience.com/land-air-difference.html

No, it was 48°C air temperature. The "Debunking" was a hoax and this explained in the article you linked.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Next year will be worse, but after that should be much cooler. The 90 year "Moctezuma" cycle (think dust bowl 1930's - much warmer than this year, 1840's, 1750's and conquistador records from 1660's) is combined with a peak 11 year solar cycle and an el nino, will subside. overall warming will still increase, so 2110's will be brutal, but late 2020's should be awesome -- cooler summers and warmer winters, longer grow…

Do you have a single source for this idea?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/1...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record#/med...]

This is a few years old, but: https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/screenhunt...

Often when I talk about climate cycles, it turns into I'm a climate change denier. I am not, I have been writing about climate change since the 90's. It's just not that this year, or next, are indicative of imminent disaster.

Within the next few hundred years the seas will rise around 100m. Nothing will stop that, nothing will save most island countries or coastal cities. We don't have the long term political will to stop that.

But that's centuries from now, not decades.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#154
post #136
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has there ever been a global civilization collapse? We seem a bit unprecedented. I think that 50 years from now the global average life expectancy will be greater than now. Certainly not decades less than today’s average. Perfectly happy to wager money through augur or some other wonky long bet system as this seems like a total easy win.

> this seems like a total easy win. Of course that’s an easy win. Nobody will come to collect if they win.

I think the way it’s set up is that the wager automatically pays out to a beneficiary, so I would have it pay out to a charity.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup however you wouldn't be here today if someone.in your ancestry didn't live through that - assuming your family is from that part of the world

I’m sure it was deeply unpleasant for my ancestors and I’m currently thinking the world may be up being way more unpleasant for my descendants than it was for me.

The point this sub thread is that people always had reason to suspect this and at all previous time it was an error.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#156
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most reading this will merely be inconvenienced. Except: >The only people who really have to worry are those in the tropics living with unreliable power grids and no ac. Which is where millions of people attempting to migrate to countries where living outside isn't a death sentence, and how do you think that will go after the amount of hatred we have seen for the comparatively minimal migration we have currently ex…

Also, you can turn back relatively few migrants, many of whom is only there for a chance at a better life. Good luck turning away orders of magnitude more, fighting for a chance at life .

[deleted]

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a single source for this idea?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/1... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record#/med... ] This is a few years old, but: https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/screenhunt... Often when I talk about climate cycles, it turns into I'm a climate change denier. I am not, I have been writing about climate change since the 90's. It's just not that this year, or next, are ind…

None of these sources describe this "Moctezuma cycle" you mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a single source for this idea?

The current short term (5 year) climate thinking is that conditions (land + ocean temps, storms, etc) will worsen for "a few years" and then lighten up a little with a slight reduction and general plateau for a few more years. The ratcheting upward saw toothing is a feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern .. and the world is just now moving into the upturn phase. Climate dynamics are akin to the te…

None of these sources describe this alleged "Moctezuma cycle" that was mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a single source for this idea?

The current short term (5 year) climate thinking is that conditions (land + ocean temps, storms, etc) will worsen for "a few years" and then lighten up a little with a slight reduction and general plateau for a few more years. The ratcheting upward saw toothing is a feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern .. and the world is just now moving into the upturn phase. Climate dynamics are akin to the te…

I agree with the first sentence and disagree with the second, and the citations also disagree with the second sentence, because we are moving into a downturn phase. And I love the third sentence because I had to read it twice. :)

There are lots of disagreements about whether it will be 2024 or 2025 that the ENSO cycle gets cooler but there is zero disagreement that solar radiation will start decreasing next year.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00199-z https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/e...

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/what-will-solar-cy...

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current short term (5 year) climate thinking is that conditions (land + ocean temps, storms, etc) will worsen for "a few years" and then lighten up a little with a slight reduction and general plateau for a few more years. The ratcheting upward saw toothing is a feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern .. and the world is just now moving into the upturn phase. Climate dynamics are akin to the te…

None of these sources describe this alleged "Moctezuma cycle" that was mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing

Sometimes spelled as Montezuma, or Aztec cycle.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-climate-cycles-which...

Post reply on HN