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A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

nature.com

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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#171

Post by joshuaheard »

oceanthrowaway wrote: post #32

I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…

The article says the collapse would cause an ice age in Northern Europe. Would that "cure" global warming?

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#172

Post by RandomLensman »

ddq wrote: post #139
RandomLensman wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are challenges to overcome but thinking of the future as dystopia can be counterproductive.

By contrast, acknowledging the dystopian elements of the present is productive and important. They are real and should be addressed for the betterment of mankind.

I just don't think that approach has worked well so far because there often isn't a near term positive vision to go alongside.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#173

Post by mschild »

olddustytrail wrote: post #148
mschild wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's mentions a potential collapse as early as 2025. More precisely 2025-2095. That is this century and it's accurate to say 2025 is imminent.

Yes, but I - and probably you - will die sometime between 2025 and 2095. I wouldn't say that therefore our deaths are imminent.

Likely, but if the collapse happens in say 2030, the rest of my life and that of almost everyone else, however short or long that may be, is not going to be pleasent.

Regardless, I would like to see humanity safely thrive. I don't want earth to become an example of the great filter theory.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#174

Post by barbazoo »

mikub wrote: post #141
barbazoo wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would a layperson like myself judge what's in the IPCC report? The predictions are so dramatic that we have to act now and can't wait and see how it turns out. How is it different from this submission here?

There is a great podcast that goes through the whole IPCC report in something like 70 episodes. It's in german though, so not quiet sure how helpfull it could be for you, but maybee there is something similar in english. The podcast mentioned is " https://dasklima.podigee.io/ " . Discussion about IPCC goes on until episode 77, after that they discuss some broader topics.

I happen to speak German, thank you!

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#175

Post by sveme »

braaannigan wrote: post #50

I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…

It's Nature Communications, not Nature itself. Relevant quote:

> If a paper is rejected from one Nature journal, the authors can use an automated manuscript transfer service to submit the paper to Nature Communications via a link sent to them by the editor handling the manuscript.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#176

Post by JPLeRouzic »

joshuaheard wrote: post #171
oceanthrowaway wrote: post #32

I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…

The article says the collapse would cause an ice age in Northern Europe. Would that "cure" global warming?

I can't find any reference to ice age in the article, nor to consequences for Europe, where did I missed them?

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#177

Post by timmg »

oceanthrowaway wrote: post #100
Biologist123 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…

To me this is the great utility of the IPCC reports. If you look at the full report you can find subsections on many aspects of climate change and a discussion of the state of the field complete with citations compiled by an expert.

Speaking of which, I recently saw this: https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-ipcc-actually-... which is kinda a review of what IPCC report says about "extreme weather".

For me, this summary is a lot different than the way I see this aspect talked about in the media (and on Twitter, etc) even by climate scientists.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#178

Post by zymhan »

sveme wrote: post #175
braaannigan wrote: post #50

I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…

It's Nature Communications, not Nature itself. Relevant quote: > If a paper is rejected from one Nature journal, the authors can use an automated manuscript transfer service to submit the paper to Nature Communications via a link sent to them by the editor handling the manuscript.

Indeed, the byline mentions that it is "Open Access"

> Article | Open Access

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#179

Post by sveme »

bjourne wrote: post #134
Biologist123 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…

Look at it this way. The link to the article appeared on HN 15:59:54. braaannigan's comment appeared on 17:07:56. Thus, it took this HN user not more than 60 minutes to conclude that this article is of low quality and should not have been published in Nature. Nature's editors, the article's authors, and its peer reviewers disagree. braaannigan is anonymous and do not put their reputation on the line. Nature's editors…

To reemphasize: this is Nature Communications, not Nature. Editorially completely independent, much lower impact factor.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#180

Post by MrOwnPut »

olddustytrail wrote: post #170
MrOwnPut wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is "we"? The US has reduced emissions records while increasing energy output for a number of years now. Europe has increased both, regardless of their rhetoric. China of course has increased both as well with more coal plants being built. Most of the reduction in the US is thanks to fracking/nat.gas displacing coal. Which a lot of people are against. Focusing on nuclear could get us a lot farther in displacing fo…

> Europe has increased both, regardless of their rhetoric. Meanwhile, back in the real world: https://ip-quarterly.com/sites/default/files/styles/dgap_tea...

That does not include energy outsourced.
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