Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans • Hacker News Board

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#271

Post by itsoktocry » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 2:46 PM UTC

redtehartykle wrote: post #249

smoldesu wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Growth, or bubble? I don't forsee a world where Apple paves their way to 5 trillion dollar valuation. Both of their highest-margin products (iPhone and App Store) are under threat and require immediate re-arranging. They're an easy bet because "big company strong", but have so many mounting issues to deal with on the global stage. It's extremely unlikely this period of growth lasts into the future. Nvidia is, as you…

I thought a valuation of a company on a stock market was a reflection of its potential future profits. So with these recent influx of capital to me that's the market saying that it believes Nvidia and Apple are going to bring in profits in the future so here's money now to grow in order to capture those profits that come in later. I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though.

>I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though.

Yes, it's not as simple as "the company will make profits, therefore it's worth a lot".

Apple's expected forward p/e is ~28 over the next five years, which means if you believe that and buy now, you can expect an average return of 3.5%. How much you expect future earnings to grow determines if buying now is a good deal or not.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#272

Post by m_mueller » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 2:46 PM UTC

loudmax wrote: post #26

RC_ITR wrote: post #8

From the beginning, this product was a very classically Apple strategy of 'let's just take the Next Gen technology, integrate it well, and beat everyone else to market.' Similar to the iPhone 'winning' capacitive touch (or the iPod winning with Toshiba's mini HDD's), Apple plans to 'win' on SOTA hand tracking, camera-based full-color passthrough, face tracking, etc. These are all things that Meta (and the rest) have…

The Vision Pro looks like a lot of fun but I'm not sure what the use case is. Unlike the iPhone, this is clearly an indoor device, not an AR system to navigate around town. It seems a much more immersive desktop experience, but are you really going to be more productive using AR than a 4k monitor or two? Maybe so, but I wouldn't take that for granted until people start actually using these for work. It does seem like…

that alone is not mass market, but I'd imagine there's application in industrial settings, especially when you have robotics operating in a factory floor. I imagine walking through a factory and seeing realtime analytics data and even having the ability to do on-the-fly settings changes on the working robots could be quite interesting.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#273

Post by runako » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 2:50 PM UTC

kzrdude wrote: post #199

retskrad wrote: post #197

Based on the articles I've read about this product, it might be the most advanced consumer tech we've ever seen. It would be a surprise if the production was a smooth sailing.

It's created seemingly for a high growth part of the cycle and not a recession. It might fail based on that timing?

Good thing for them we're[1] not in a recession, then[2]?

More seriously, if anybody launches a platform that can't weather a recession, it wasn't going to make it long-term anyway. Windows 3 launched around the 1990 recession, IBM PC launched into the 1982 recession, iPhone launched during the 2007/2008 recession. Platforms take time to take shape. A recession occurring early in a platform's life might even be beneficial, as it will make management more forgiving of "missed" sales targets in the early years.

1 - The USA

2 - Seriously, we're not in a recession and haven't been for 3 years. The economy grew at this rate most of the last decade and there were no complaints about us being in a recession. Money costs more now is the major difference.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#274

Post by justapassenger » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 2:56 PM UTC

rbanffy wrote: post #250

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I quite frankly don't understand what makes this the most advanced consumer tech ever. What about mRNA vaccines? Centimetre-accuracy differential GPS navigation systems that fit the palm of your hand, like the uBlox f9p? 3D printers like the Ultimaker S5 that can feed carbon fiber thread into the print? High-end cameras like the Sony A1? What is the defining feature(s) that makes a new VR headset so much more advance…

It really pushes the envelope on many fronts - thermals, displays, materials, sensor integration, specialised hardware… I would never expect any rollout like that to go as planned.

All of them are basically iterations on current customer devices, with main advantages coming mostly from: 1. Apple willing to attach mind boggling price tag to it. You can engineer much more things if price tag is 10x of industry leader (oculus 2). 2. Apple is taking a big shortcuts with external battery, that gives you a lot of extra power, space and thermal leeway.

I’m not saying that they didn’t make something great - it does seem great. And given it’s Apple, they’ll likely have great polish and attention to detail, that make a HUGE difference.

But it’s not a best thing since sliced bread. It’s not a technological breakthrough. It’s “just” a new generation of customer electronic device, that’s better than previous one.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#275

Post by earthling8118 » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 3:07 PM UTC

trws wrote: post #157

JohnFen wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. iPhones and the Apple desktop OS. In both of them, I am lost as to how to accomplish anything but the most common stuff. The design of the OSes is such that it's not obvious how to do anything, and they provide very little guidance. You have to already know how to do what it is you're trying to do. This is even worse on Apple smartphones, because a lot of stuff is done using mystery gestures that you have to al…

I’m actually curious about specifics here for macOS aside from things like hidden scroll bars. Mainly because I find it to be one of the most discoverable. If you go into the ‘help’ menu in any application, you get a search box that searches all the menus of the application, if a shortcut exists for the action it’s listed alongside it. Admittedly Qt and KDE can do this too, but only for QT apps, while on macOS it’s e…

You're looking for specifics from people that don't necessarily have them. Not because their reasoning isn't valid, but a lot of us don't use the ecosystem frequently enough for them to be in the foreground of our minds.

I had to use an iPhone for a few weeks when mine broke. That was enough to convince me to never touch any of their products again. I'd love to tell you more about it but it's been 4 years and I just don't remember all of of details. The main thing I remember is that it was anything but intuitive to use and it was an entirely frustrating experience. Easily the worst phone experience I've ever had

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#276

Post by justapassenger » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 3:07 PM UTC

arijun wrote: post #259

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I quite frankly don't understand what makes this the most advanced consumer tech ever. What about mRNA vaccines? Centimetre-accuracy differential GPS navigation systems that fit the palm of your hand, like the uBlox f9p? 3D printers like the Ultimaker S5 that can feed carbon fiber thread into the print? High-end cameras like the Sony A1? What is the defining feature(s) that makes a new VR headset so much more advance…

I don’t know that I agree with the wording of the parent post, but I understand the sentiment. It does include a lot of hardware that is relatively cutting edge, and the insanely low latency on the system is reflected in that. While calling it “the most advanced” might be a bit of a stretch, the sophistication of the hardware was something that I wouldn’t have previously thought possible. Some of your counter example…

> The actual mRNA vaccines are pretty technologically simple,

Apple vision is even more technologically simple. You get the screen, attach some sensors to it, sprinkle cameras, add CPU, battery, lenses and you’re done.

> the complexity in differential gps is in its algorithms rather than hardware,

I could somehow understand your ignorance when it comes to mRNA - it’s outside of typical software engineer field of expertise. But GPS?

Yeah, complexity is just in algorithms. Building a satellite that can survive decades in space, building and attaching extremely precise clock to, some solar panels and antennas, thrusters and few other minor details, then getting that onto the rocket and injecting into very precise orbit - that’s an easy part! And especially doing that in 1970s!

All those things are easy compared to leet code! /s

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#277

Post by finikytou » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 3:16 PM UTC

redtehartykle wrote: post #208

kzrdude wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's created seemingly for a high growth part of the cycle and not a recession. It might fail based on that timing?

Apple was just valued at over 3T. NVIDIA spiked. Infrastructure Bill spending is coming through as I understand it. We're in a post-vid slump growth phase.

no one should underestimate apple. have you seen the inflate phone prices outside of USA? guess how much iphone 15 will cost... they ll make more money than ever and in 3 generations the vision pro will as well

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#278

Post by throwuwu » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 3:18 PM UTC

wcarss wrote: post #243

mmastrac wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does Apple's virtual monitor provide over the N existing virtual monitor solutions that you've waited this long? Honest question as this tech has been around for ages.

As a person who wanted VR monitors, I backed the original Oculus Dev Kit 1 a decade ago, and it was terrible for that purpose. So I got the DK2, and the Vive, and the Index afterwards, trying each. The Index pretty much has it -- it's doable. I can read comfortably in there, or watch a youtube video and not feel like I'm getting some grainy, crappy version, but it's just barely there. It's very heavy and hot, though,…

There are other high resolution headsets on the market right now at comparable or less cost than the vision pro.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#279

Post by throwuwu » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 3:27 PM UTC

happymellon wrote: post #270

crooked-v wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Higher quality screens at a lower weight-on-your-head than anything else on the market.

1. There is only so big before you have to crane your neck, which existing screens can reach. 2. My existing monitor is already really light on my neck. I don't see any benefits.

1. Not having to sit at your desk where your monitor is. You can switch to sitting on a couch or in a recliner or walking on a treadmill or on your porch.

2. Taking it with you easily. You have the same large screen (s) with you in the hotel room or at your in-law’s or at the cafe (people might look at you weird but this is a massive flex regardless)

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#280

Post by dagmx » Tue, Jul 04, 2023, 3:33 PM UTC

vanattab wrote: post #202

retskrad wrote: post #197

Based on the articles I've read about this product, it might be the most advanced consumer tech we've ever seen. It would be a surprise if the production was a smooth sailing.

How is it so much better then other passthrough vr headsets?

Depends what kind of passthrough you’re talking about.

If you’re talking about additive displays like xreal , magic lens or HoloLens, then the Vision Pro has a much higher field of view of the content and the ability to display things that are darker than the real world , in exchange for looking at a screen of the world instead of directly at it. Those trade offs are subjective so I won’t focus on them because the tech is so different.

If you compare to other VR headsets with cameras feeding video to the screen, there’s a lot:

1. Clarity is higher. If you look at the footage from their product video which they said is shot from device, it’s a lot more stable and clear than anything up until you get to the $6k Varjo XR-3.

2. Latency is lower apparently. Most other headsets have more of a delay between photon in to photon out based on people who’ve tried it.

3. Better reprojection of the image. If you look at videos of pass through from the Quest Pro, as you move, things warp in the view. From videos from the vision pro, it doesn’t seem to have any of that. (Obviously I’m just taking each company at its word that videos are honest)

Supposedly the Quest 3 is significantly better passthrough than the Quest Pro but very few people have tried it and said anything in depth about it, so it’s too early to judge.