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The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

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Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#301

Post by dralley »

justsomehnguy wrote: post #297
dralley wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it very unlikely that they would imprison, essentially, the entire remaining pre-2014 population of Crimea on the sole basis of having received a Russian passport. It's going to be a large problem in the occupied territories as well, as people have been refused medical care and other necessities unless accepting a Russian passport or in some cases threatened and tortured. Separating out those who were under ge…

> I find it very unlikely that they would imprison Lol? "Presumption of guilt" for anyone who lives (or happens to be) in Crimea. EDIT: with a strongly implied round ups for anyone deemed undesirable https://tweet.lambda.dance/Spriter99880/status/1663931257053... > some cases threatened and tortured Sorry? At least OSCE SMM or equivalent source?

Arestovych was kicked out of the administration for making exaggerated statements for attention, he's not a great source.

Accepting a passport alone is not going to be the criteria. The Ukrainian government explicitly recommended taking the papers if coerced to do so: https://kyivindependent.com/official-advises-ukrainians/

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#302

Post by lostmsu »

ajross wrote: post #145
baybal2 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's a scorched earth tactic, in preparation to abandoning Crimea. Without this dam, Crimea will be without water for at least next 3 to 5 years after Ukraine recaptures it.

This is tactical, not terroristic. Flooded rivers and drained reservoirs are harder for armies to cross than developed riverside real estate. This eliminates the Dnipro as an invasion route and allows Russia to concentrate on defending the north. Putin may not care much about Crimean civilians but he's not going to go through all this trouble just to make them suffer.

> This is tactical, not terroristic

I am not sure why you believe these two things contradict each other.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#303

Post by esarbe »

2-718-281-828 wrote: post #294
esarbe wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that this constrain applies. The dam was part of the Russia-occupied territory or part of the gray zone. Ukraine was not using the damn dam for anything. At this point I'm not willing to give Russia the benefit of the doubt anymore. Their leadership has more than sufficiently demonstrated that they consider atrocities and crimes of war as part of the toolbox, so to say.

doesn't this make it more plausible that ukraine blew it up?

The dam was under Russian control. Ukraine wouldn't have had any opportunity to place demolition charges.

Russia has demonstrated that it is; - willing to level cities with hundreds of thousands of inhabitants

- willing to use torture, abduction, rape as systematic weapons of war

- willing to indiscriminately attack civilians

- willing to use banned weapons of war

Despite war crimes obviously (d'oh) happening on both sides of the conflict, the Russian leadership has made it evidently clear that is more than happy to unleash any amount of terror, pain, misery and suffering to get what it wants. The Russian leadership is perfectly a-ok to systematically use all of the aforementioned as weapons.

I've not seen this callousness from the Ukrainian leadership.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#304

Post by ajross »

lostmsu wrote: post #302
ajross wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is tactical, not terroristic. Flooded rivers and drained reservoirs are harder for armies to cross than developed riverside real estate. This eliminates the Dnipro as an invasion route and allows Russia to concentrate on defending the north. Putin may not care much about Crimean civilians but he's not going to go through all this trouble just to make them suffer.

> This is tactical, not terroristic I am not sure why you believe these two things contradict each other.

No, but one is easier to understand than the other. Spending a ton of intelligence capital on a complicated clandestine demolition operation just to impoverish a region under context just doesn't make a lot of sense, even for Putin. At best it's a side benefit.

It also requires that you assume Putin genuinely believes he's going to lose Crimea in this war, which seems questionable (a Ukrainian military conquest of the peninsula is a *huge* ask, much more so than just retaking the occupied Donetsk territory).

The tactical explanation, and especially the timing, really seems much more likely.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#305

Post by justsomehnguy »

dralley wrote: post #301
justsomehnguy wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I find it very unlikely that they would imprison Lol? "Presumption of guilt" for anyone who lives (or happens to be) in Crimea. EDIT: with a strongly implied round ups for anyone deemed undesirable https://tweet.lambda.dance/Spriter99880/status/1663931257053... > some cases threatened and tortured Sorry? At least OSCE SMM or equivalent source?

Arestovych was kicked out of the administration for making exaggerated statements for attention, he's not a great source. Accepting a passport alone is not going to be the criteria. The Ukrainian government explicitly recommended taking the papers if coerced to do so: https://kyivindependent.com/official-advises-ukrainians/

Ah, yes, there were no videos of what the brave liberators did with people they identified as collaborators.

>The Ukrainian government explicitly recommended taking the papers if coerced to do so

How can anyone be coerced to get a passport?

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#306

Post by theironhammer »

wkat4242 wrote: post #262
polotics wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once the Kerch bridge is cut and the southern offensive gets through to the Azov sea, they won't have any other choice but to scamper from Crimea.

I don't know. Sevastopol is super important to them. I hope they won't do anything drastic. It's the only warm water port Russia has on the black sea. And thus full year access to the mediterranean. I doubt they will give it up. Perhaps the rest of Crimea, I could imagine. But not the base.

Precisely. Ukraine taking back Crimea is pure fantasy. Russia would launch nukes rather than give it up.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#307

Post by theironhammer »

_kbh_ wrote: post #190
holoduke wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia will never give up crimea. In fact it 'always' practically belonged to Russia. Their most important naval base is there for decades.

> Russia will never give up crimea. In fact it 'always' practically belonged to Russia. Their most important naval base is there for decades. Maybe they shouldn’t have built their most important naval base in a foreign country then proceeded to invade that country lol.

You should look up the history of Crimea.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#308

Post by michtzik »

justsomehnguy wrote: post #305
dralley wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arestovych was kicked out of the administration for making exaggerated statements for attention, he's not a great source. Accepting a passport alone is not going to be the criteria. The Ukrainian government explicitly recommended taking the papers if coerced to do so: https://kyivindependent.com/official-advises-ukrainians/

Ah, yes, there were no videos of what the brave liberators did with people they identified as collaborators. >The Ukrainian government explicitly recommended taking the papers if coerced to do so How can anyone be coerced to get a passport ?

> How can anyone be coerced to get a passport?

The video you linked to mentions an example: an elderly person getting a Russian passport in order to get medical care (after nine years).

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#309

Post by justsomehnguy »

jevgeni wrote: post #118
dtx1 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile you're sitting in your comfy chairs asking for 'credible sources' and wondering which side this benefits more. But it's precisely because we're sitting in a comfy chair that we have to ask for credible sources. "Fog of War" is a real thing and disinformation campaigns have been integral to this war. Most people here couldn't pinpoint this dam on a map and it's not immediately obvious that this isn't some…

The fact that the victim is not credible to you is already appaling.

Amber Laura Heard was a credible victim too.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#310

Post by autoexec »

grugagag wrote: post #296
autoexec wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also weird how totally unnecessary all of this is. You could probably say that about most wars really, but this one is entirely pointless. Russia didn't have to invade at all. They can go home at any time and it'd all just stop. It'll be hard enough to deal with all the loss and damage that's been done already.

Russia’s image as superpower had been damaged. If Russia end the conflict Putin dies. He won’t let that happen

Russia’s image was trashed when they failed to take Ukraine in the first weeks of the invasion. Winning now (or months/years from now) isn't going to fix that. Even if they did win what would they get? Russia has no real need for Ukraine. I'd rather be known as a country who screwed up but knows when to quit than one who does something dumb and is too embarrassed by it to pull their head out of their own ass no matter what the cost.
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