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The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

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Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#272
post #269
post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, also the Russian has claimed Ukraine on planning the for blowing the dam. https://www.voanews.com/a/latest-developments-in-ukraine-oct... None of the parties have supporting evidence (not for mines as well). Both parties are in information warfare, and everything is used for their own benefits. Everything they say, should be taken with a grain of salt. Immediately, when the dam was exploded, Zelens…

Here's a video of a Russian soldier doing everything short of admitting they did it. https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1666003021925347328

The problem is, that we don't have access to up-to-date Russian military records. Is he really Russian soldier? If he is, can we guarantee that the video is not digitally created (deep fake)? If we guarantee the both, what is the motivation for Russian soldier to say it and what situation led to this video? Do we know, that this soldier was indeed responsible to be close to the dam?

It is so difficult to say what is true these days.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#273
post #272
post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a video of a Russian soldier doing everything short of admitting they did it. https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1666003021925347328

The problem is, that we don't have access to up-to-date Russian military records. Is he really Russian soldier? If he is, can we guarantee that the video is not digitally created (deep fake)? If we guarantee the both, what is the motivation for Russian soldier to say it and what situation led to this video? Do we know, that this soldier was indeed responsible to be close to the dam? It is so difficult to say what is…

> The problem is, that we don't have access to up-to-date Russian military records. Is he really Russian soldier? If he is, can we guarantee that the video is not digitally created (deep fake)? If we guarantee the both, what is the motivation for Russian soldier to say it and what situation led to this video? Do we know, that this soldier was indeed responsible to be close to the dam?

You got evidence and now you're trying to discredit that evidence.

> It is so difficult to say what is true these days.

Indeed it is, I have a feeling you really don't care much about the truth are just here to try and muddy the waters.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#274
post #265
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, I don't know what to say really. I have no idea how this all ends, and I fear it is far from over yet. I don't support Ukraine in this conflict for different reasons, one of which is that in case of their victory my family will loose everything and I'll end up in jail (and that's best case). But I cannot support Russia either because I cannot support the idiots who decided to start this war, because I cannot su…

> I don't support Ukraine in this conflict for different reasons, one of which is that in case of their victory my family will loose everything and I'll end up in jail (and that's best case). Why would this happen?.

This would happen if the person is squatting on somebody else's property (i.e. received or bought illegally while the Crimea is occupied) or is a collaborator.

Good riddance if this will actually happen.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Benefits the Russians who have been dealing with a Ukranian counter-offensive, and commentators have been wondering if Ukraine would attempt to cross the Dnipro and mount a counter-offensive to cut Crimea off from the mainland. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tRYWbVD5AE is a great visualization of why that task is basically impossible now.

Footage coming out in the last two days showed heavy Ukraine armour losses, so I am not sure whether this is necessarily because Russians were on backfoot. The overflow would be higher towards South so it will hurt Russian defensive preparations more once the water has receded.

> Footage coming out in the last two days showed heavy Ukraine armour losses, so I am not sure whether this is necessarily because Russians were on backfoot.

Do you have any links about that?

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#276
post #166
post #2

Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nova-kakhovka-dam-khers... Simulation of worst-case scenarios: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tRYWbVD5AE The Russian State News agency claims that the dam "collapsed due to damage" https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/166592960325106892... Ukraine says it was destroyed by the Russian military. Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kakhovka+Hydroelectric+Po…

Who benefits the most from the collapse? Does it disturb Ukraine or Russian military the most? Who will achieve military goals because of this? Does it help Ukraine in information warfare? (does it increase West participation to war)

Current chatter that I'm seeing indicates that the local RF commander got scared and blew the dam. It may not have been commanded by higher ups. So, the only benefactor seems to have been the local RF, and even then only until someone can got over there to ream him.

How good is this info? Probably not the best. But it fits fine enough with how poorly commanded RF has been throughout this war.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#277
I want to remind everyone that the irrigation of the entire south Kherson oblast depended on the Crimean channel, providing around 17% of Ukraine's agricultural output, and the water supply to some of the largest cities in the area such as Kherson and Krivuy Rih was also dependent on that water reservoir. Not to mention the colossal flooding and displacement of tens of thousands of Ukrainian people. This act had ruined a chunk of Ukraine's future. It's extremely unlikely Ukraine had anything to do with it or anything to gain which would compensate the economic loss.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#279
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not sure what other credible source you may want. I'm a little confused: You did not provide any source. You're not obligated to provide any, but I don't understand your comment.

FYI, it stops looking like innocent questioning when you put more time and effort into repeating the question in multiple places than into looking up the answer yourself. If you think someone is wrong, then be forthright about that, and consider whether addressing the lack of adequate sourcing is still necessary after you've made a real contribution to the conversation. In a topic like this one, people can reasonably…

The GGP is neither a credible source (it's an unsupported statement by an internet rando) nor speculation that withstands much scrutiny (IIRC, circa 2014, Ukraine had blocked the channel that supplies water to Crimea, and that didn't cause the Russians to abandon it then, and I don't see why now would be any different).

There's a lot of wishful thinking and propaganda swirling around this conflict, and strong claims need strong evidence.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#280
post #265
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, I don't know what to say really. I have no idea how this all ends, and I fear it is far from over yet. I don't support Ukraine in this conflict for different reasons, one of which is that in case of their victory my family will loose everything and I'll end up in jail (and that's best case). But I cannot support Russia either because I cannot support the idiots who decided to start this war, because I cannot su…

> I don't support Ukraine in this conflict for different reasons, one of which is that in case of their victory my family will loose everything and I'll end up in jail (and that's best case). Why would this happen?.

In the unlikely event of retaking Crimea, Ukraine is going to prosecute collaborators, cancel _all_ property deals after 2014, and expel Russian citizens who never had Ukrainian citizenship. I have received Russian citizenship, some of my family members have been Russian citizens all their life, and I have inherited, sold, and bought property after 2014. And while it is not clear who is going to be considered a collaborator, nobody who received Russian citizenship is safe (which means nobody at all).
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