Why are lithium prices collapsing? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#321

Post by kortilla » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:23 PM UTC

BeFlatXIII wrote: post #253

lotsofpulp wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But there's a material difference between "attempting, in good faith, to determine what the demand for a commodity will be in the future, and buying based on that" and "attempting to determine what the price of a commodity on the futures market will be and buying based on that". These are indistinguishable. Unless you want to restrict markets to being only between suppliers and consumers, there will always be middle…

> Unless you want to restrict markets to being only between suppliers and consumers That is what I would like to do, yes.

I challenge you to write out what scenarios you think reducing market participants will solve. Historically it has 100% so far been highly illiquid markets with huge price spreads, which is terrible for both sellers and buyers.

What you’re suggesting means a farmer selling wheat futures for delivery a year from now needs to be at the market at the same time a bread maker is looking to buy wheat a year from now. That basically doesn’t happen because the bread maker doesn’t need that level of forward looking price stability.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#322

Post by kortilla » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:25 PM UTC

newswasboring wrote: post #191

nindalf wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have not seen any necessary gambling in my years in manufacturing. You need to manufacture a widget and it must cost no more than $5. You have a few inputs to your widget, some made with steel and some with plastic. If steel and plastic prices increase, your inputs cost more than $5 and you’re making a loss on every widget you sell. So you go to the futures market and take a bet that the input prices will increas…

> So you go to the futures market and take a bet that the input prices will increase. If you’re right, you win $, which makes your widget manufacturing profitable and you’re still in business. This isn't remotely how manufacturing works. Manufacturers are focused on making the widget, for them the most important thing is that material is available, not a paper contract.

Futures offer physical delivery. At least try to understand how the market works before you claim it’s pointless.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#323

Post by mistercheph » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:29 PM UTC

rhaway84773 wrote: post #192

simoncion wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons. Yeah, it's weird, right? Why _are_ people so invested in burning natgas and coal and other hydrocarbons for large-scale power generation when a plethora of proven near-zero-emissions alternatives exist? From a climate-change perspective, banning natgas cookstoves is a few pennies saved on like a thousand dollar expenditure. It's similar t…

There will be no “real dent”. You have to make small changes along with big changes. And banning natural gas piped infrastructure is an easy win. 1. No one is banning natural gas stoves. You can still use a natural gas stove. You just need to bring your own cylinder like most of the world and half the food YouTubers already do. 2. Natural gas stoves have significant indoor pollution impact. It’s a huge benefit even o…

I don't think anyone that cooks for themselves genuinely thinks this. E-stovetops are literally a joke, designed by and for adult-infants that eat microwaved soup from Trader Joe's, not for real people that make real, delicious food.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#324

Post by nuancebydefault » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:30 PM UTC

pclmulqdq wrote: post #227

bcrosby95 wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying everyone who thinks we need to sacrifice for climate change owns a 50 room house and flies around in a private jet?

Not at all, but I am saying that a large fraction of the most visible people who are very publicly evangelizing for it do. If the movement can't convince its evangelists to make the significant lifestyle changes they are demanding of everyone, why would you expect others to adopt them first? I am half convinced that Greta Thunberg was given a lot of media attention because they finally found someone evangelizing for…

IMHO there is a fault in this way of reasoning, please let me explain.

People who are very visible, tend to:

- Have more impact about what they say, because they reach a big population group and some people identify with their reasoning. (lets call it the elon effect)

- Have a lot more money than average.

Following your reasoning, what these wealthy people say would be almost always be the wrong thing to do, since those people have more money and hence spend more, and hence consume directly or indirectly more energy. Hence they pollute a lot more than average, at least indirectly by buying expensive things that create pollution by their manufacturing.

If those people would say the right thing (e.g. poluting less is better), you wouldn't take them serious. And your conclusion would be polluting less is not better or at least we should not take that advice for granted, because of who said it.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#325

Post by Tagbert » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:31 PM UTC

latency-guy2 wrote: post #301

marcosdumay wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. And I guess some people insist on the confusion on purpose. It doesn't matter how many times people point it out, the confusion keeps happening.

I agree that it's deliberate, and I extend that to any sort of mining - after all it comes from the stance of misinformed "environmentalists" not being able to tell the difference because any of that type of action is bad

There are certainly people reposting comments that mix up lithium and cobalt and keep asserting that all EV batteries use cobalt and how terrible that is. They are not all environmentalists. A lot of them are just using those talking points as a way to oppose the move to EVs.

They also like to post a photo of an open pit gold mine in Australia and claim that it is a lithium mine while complaining about the massive environmental impact. they never respond when I post a link with proper attribution showing that it is not a lithium mine.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#326

Post by smitty1e » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:31 PM UTC

yunohn wrote: post #273

smitty1e wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I'm after is that much of the ethics by which our legal system operates, e.g. a BAC limit for legal driving, is divorced from moral questions such as: "Is drinking beer a sinful act?"

I think you’re gravely misguided. BAC has nothing to do with sin, it’s connected to the morality and ethics of putting your fellow citizens at risk of your impaired driving.

Indeed, this is the point I'm after. Glad we could get there.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#327

Post by akira2501 » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:32 PM UTC

elif wrote: post #109

Because I see so much "conflict metals" discussion when lithium is discussed, I would like to contribute that less than 3% of global lithium production takes place on small artisanal mines, in which place human rights abuse may occur. Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations with large scale mines complying with multiple international regulation requirements.

> Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations

If I search google for this string, your post is the only one that comes up. How did you arrive at this figure?

In the history of industry, when has it ever been a positive indication that only two players control the majority of the supply?

Do these companies directly own the mines or are there partnerships and subsidiaries involved? What countries are they operating in? How long is the supply chain from the mine to the product?

How are water rights being managed? Is there correct oversight? Are any governments trading long term environmental damage for short term profits? What happens when the mines are depleted?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#328

Post by rsecora » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:32 PM UTC

xbmcuser wrote: post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

Batteries has a long supply chain, and in this case the market is forecasting a drop in demand. Due to more sources and increase output in the early stages of the chain, the offer has increased.

Note also the article refer explicit to EV in different paragraphs .

it's described in the article.

> with the expiry of a more than decade-long programme of subsidies for EV purchases.

> the expanding supply outlook for the metal is mainly what is pushing prices lower this year

> Supply is coming on stream faster than you can say ‘boo’. > first-ever lithium deposit to be discovered in Iran’s mountainous western province of Hamedan. At an estimated 8.5 million tonnes,

> China is also expanding its lithium-supply capacity from lepidolite, which, while considered the most abundant lithium-bearing mineral,

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#329

Post by Animats » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

defrost wrote: post #6

Animats wrote: post #4

Much better article in the Economist this week.[1] [1] https://www.economist.com/business/2023/04/20/why-crashing-l...

aka: https://archive.is/k5Hjd Not a great article (from a minerals and resources perspective). Two specific factors; recent mine expansion at sites that dig in the dirt and produce concentrates _and_ recent and near future expansion of processing locations that take concentrates and refine to ship usable lithium. Eg: Minesite in Western Australia currently ships concentrates to Malaysia and will soon ship also Texas.

Shipping concentrates is pretty standard in mining low-grade resources. Near the mine, there's usually some kind of plant to extract the good stuff and discard the dirt. Otherwise, there's a huge amount of wasted effort shipping dirt and rocks around, and dumping them someplace.

What's shipped out usually needs more processing. What's left behind is usually the big environmental headache with mining.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#330

Post by Tagbert » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

comte7092 wrote: post #266

megaman821 wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ban of gas connections and by extension gas water heaters, gas furnaces and gas stoves is being reframed to be just gas stoves. So yes, if you cherry-pick the lowest impact item out of the list of gas appliances, the impact is low.

Exactly this. Gas stoves are the flashpoint, because at the end of the day, people generally don’t think about what type of energy their heating comes from. The gas stove is the deciding factor that determines whether or not a gas line gets hooked up to a home or not.

Most people decide on a heating source based on price, not on the stove they want. In the US, in most areas, gas is cheaper to heat a house than electricity is. The may shift as heat pumps become more popular, but historically it has been the case.