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Why are lithium prices collapsing?

internationalbanker.com

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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#91

Post by rmm »

tuatoru wrote: post #62

Lithium Triangle[1]. "a region of the Andes that is rich in lithium reserves, encompassed by the borders of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile.[1] The lithium in the triangle is concentrated in various salt pans that exist along the Atacama Desert and neighboring arid areas, the largest areas including Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, Salar de Atacama in Chile, and Salar del Hombre Muerto in Argentina. The area is thought to ho…

Iran is not a reserve it may well be a resource but a long way from being a Jorc etc reserve.

Also that lithium triangle is still a historic artefact of lithiums previous life as a really good lubricant and anti depressant. Given lithiums importance these days, more and more hard rock deposits will be found.

For the xth time in yth year There is no lithium shortage. Up until a decade ago we weren’t even looking for it. Now that there is money to be had we will find it.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#92

Post by smitty1e »

yunohn wrote: post #85
smitty1e wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A moral argument can be offered, sure. However, there is copious cause/effect data showing that non-sobriety is expensive in terms of health- and societal repercussions.

What do you think morals are? > Morality is the differentiation of intentions, decisions and actions between those that are distinguished as proper and those that are improper. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morality

Source?

Morality seems more of a subjective call, e.g. "Thou shalt marry heterosexually ahead of procreation", than a stochastic analysis, e.g. "X percent of fatal car crashes involve blood alcohol above Y concentration."

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#93

Post by danaris »

nprateem wrote: post #31
xbmcuser wrote: post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

> speculation and gambling Of course. The net present value of a stock or asset can only be calculated based on its expected future price and earnings. Since there's no way to know this with 100% certainty, stock prices are inherently speculative. Even value investors must struggle to accurately value a company's intangible assets.

But there's a material difference between "attempting, in good faith, to determine what the demand for a commodity will be in the future, and buying based on that" and "attempting to determine what the price of a commodity on the futures market will be and buying based on that".

When people say that a commodity's price is being driven by speculation and gambling, they mean that it has shifted from the former to the latter. This means that the price is disconnected from the actual, physical use of the commodity, and is instead being driven by the inconstant passions of the commodities market itself.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#94

Post by danaris »

bboygravity wrote: post #46
xbmcuser wrote: post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

It's interesting to see that people still believe there is some type of fair price discovery when things like dark pools, market maker exemptions, naked shorting, tokenized securities, trillions in derrivative bets (hello 2008), spoofing (JP Morgan getting fined 1 billion after making 10 billion in profit in gold price spoofing) and so on and so forth exist. Speculation and gambling about what future prices will be a…

It's not by design, though.

No one designed this system. It grew, organically. People started recognizing parts of it they could take advantage of, and pushing to have those parts become more prominent, largely individually (as opposed to in one grand conspiracy of collusion).

It may be true that some of those people believe it is in their best interests that the markets be "broken", and so have pushed that far intentionally, but there is no one overriding will and no single hand on the rudder to even be able to do that on purpose. It's all just greedy people trying to get their own interests put before everyone else's.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#95

Post by mech765 »

quags wrote: post #76

Has there been a commodity that has spiked in price due to true lack of supply and non new supplies were found? From peak oil, to copper , lithium and rare earth minerals predictions of we will run out during a price shock always seem to turn into a price collapse.

Wooly mammoth prices were pretty expensive for a few years.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#96

Post by yunohn »

smitty1e wrote: post #92
yunohn wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think morals are? > Morality is the differentiation of intentions, decisions and actions between those that are distinguished as proper and those that are improper. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morality

Source? Morality seems more of a subjective call, e.g. "Thou shalt marry heterosexually ahead of procreation", than a stochastic analysis, e.g. "X percent of fatal car crashes involve blood alcohol above Y concentration."

Straight from Wikipedia, which is an objective source for such a general topic. Religious morality is a sub-category, not all of morality itself.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morality

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#97

Post by signatoremo »

tsimionescu wrote: post #48
avianlyric wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But that practically means they are based on speculation about possible future supply and demand, and we are more or less taking it on faith that that speculation is correlated to actual supply and demand. This statement almost seems tautological. Of course prices are based on speculation about possible supply and demand, nobody has a crystal ball that can tell them “actual” supply and demand. In a competitive and…

> Of course prices are based on speculation about possible supply and demand, nobody has a crystal ball that can tell them “actual” supply and demand. Exactly, no one has such a crystal ball. And this actually generally applies not just to future supply and demand, but even to the past: it's actually impossible to measure supply and demand across any significant industry, to check whether prices matched it or not. An…

> you may well lose the bet if everyone else believes the pundit

Can you give a real life example of when a pundit giving a predict against the actual supply that had everyone buy-in? Says, oil price goes down even when demand is hot?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#98

Post by agumonkey »

newswasboring wrote: post #23
bawolff wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speculation & gambaling is just second order supply & demand.

No it's not. Finance bros like to tell themselves that, so that they can justify their place in morality.

"speculation" was a bit improper, but prices are intertwined.. demand in one sector will affect demand in other, so forecasts cause price fluctuation that reaches afar.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#99

Post by lotsofpulp »

danaris wrote: post #93
nprateem wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> speculation and gambling Of course. The net present value of a stock or asset can only be calculated based on its expected future price and earnings. Since there's no way to know this with 100% certainty, stock prices are inherently speculative. Even value investors must struggle to accurately value a company's intangible assets.

But there's a material difference between "attempting, in good faith, to determine what the demand for a commodity will be in the future, and buying based on that" and "attempting to determine what the price of a commodity on the futures market will be and buying based on that". When people say that a commodity's price is being driven by speculation and gambling, they mean that it has shifted from the former to the l…

>But there's a material difference between "attempting, in good faith, to determine what the demand for a commodity will be in the future, and buying based on that" and "attempting to determine what the price of a commodity on the futures market will be and buying based on that".

These are indistinguishable. Unless you want to restrict markets to being only between suppliers and consumers, there will always be middlemen attempting to predict the price, and since they need to eat, they will be attempting to profit from changes in price.

Which is fine because suppliers and consumers are many times willing to let others handle the risks of price changes (volatility), hence the market for futures.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#100

Post by RobotToaster »

quags wrote: post #76

Has there been a commodity that has spiked in price due to true lack of supply and non new supplies were found? From peak oil, to copper , lithium and rare earth minerals predictions of we will run out during a price shock always seem to turn into a price collapse.

Helium maybe?
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