31mpg is not very efficient. Lots of current diesel engines in Europe are certified at 50+MPG. There's even a Car and Driver test where, with very efficient (and boring) driving you can get 70+MPG out of a Diesel Cruze... https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15341744/the-prince-of-pa...
The U.S. uses a Gallon measurement which is about 20% smaller than an international one so you have to factor that in.
That Car&Driver article is written in California, so I would have guessed it's US gallons, but now you're making me doubt :D
At some point dramatically lower demand will start to push the gas price higher.
Not really because some amount of a barrel of oil is gasoline. The other uses of oil will still want their fraction and be willing to pay. The refineries will need to get rid of the parts of the crude that doesn't have a market to sell to the market they have. There will of course be much less refineries. The other uses of oil are small niches, and so the world needs one-two small refinery to supply their needs. So t…
The reverse scaling will be the problem more than the commodity price. As gas stations close, finding a refueling place will similar to what early adopters of EVs faced, but without the ability to do >90% of fueling at home or anywhere else the electrical grid reaches. Although maybe it'll become a thing for some people to store tanks of gasoline at their home. At that point I'd trade for a diesel vehicle, though, if I had a hard requirement of an ICE.
I believe that current car racing trends will paint a picture of the future of automobiles. The hybrid area is among us, and the technology used is so well thought out and advanced. Hybrid as in “go incredibly fast”, and not “save gas” like as with a Prius. Currently in F1 and the new prototype classes, they are using electrification in conjunction with the internal combustion engine to create more instantly availabl…
I think the age of Rube Goldberg dinosaur fumes fire machines is over and the age of Maxwells Equations is upon us. It’s sort of like college physics progression I just realized.
I’d like to submit into evidence the new Mercedes AMG One..
The most advanced hybrid hypercar to hit the streets. Complete with the same MGU-MGK electric hybrid assist and energy recovery systems used in F1.
You may not have a choice in the matter as more and more countries are thinking of/implementing ICE bans in the near future.
They're unlikely to succeed because if the massive tax on poor people (ICE bans) actually gets implemented, all of the poor people who are forced to buy an unaffordable EV will vote for populists promising to unwind the bans.
The poorest folks I know are driving used Bolts. Money talks. Aside from the recent pandemic-fueled car price bubble, compliance EVs were really cheap on the used market.
It will be faster than you think, mostly because gas stations will be closing and so the inconvenience of fueling you car will cut that tail of - except for niches where EVs are particularly bad.
Spare parts and maintenance are likely going to be a problem first for ICE owners, rather than fuel availability. Who would be crazy enough now to invest in (and maintain) a factory for producing ICE-specific parts? Parts and skills for ICE will become scarcer and more expensive, making a new EV look economical to ICE owners in very short time. It has already been a few years now where it has been uneconomical not ju…
The investment in parts is already made. All they need to do is not scrap the tooling. Until the car the part went to is 15 years old that isn't worth doing as you will make more from selling parts than from the cost of storing the tooling. Common parts like filters will be around for much longer. Parts that rarely break will have the tools destroyed sooner, but with millions of ICE cars on the road there will be a lot of needs for parts even if the need is less than today.
Have they? Other than lithium based batteries getting cheaper per kilogram so that year by year, more battery use cases have switched over from inherently worse chemistries? Even just ten years ago, eneloop were still the hot thing for many applications outside of laptops, mobile phones and the odd Tesla (ten years ago was when Model S was still the fresh new successor to the converted Lotus)
Is eneloop not still very much a thing? Maybe not the brand, but the technology. The vast, vast majority of consumer devices using standardized battery sizes are AA or AAA, and that means NiMH. To go lithium means 18650, and I don't really see much of that happening outside flashlights and other niche products.
Why does going lithium mean 18650? 14500s have always existed. I think there’s even smaller than that but I haven’t personally checked in a bit.
They're unlikely to succeed because if the massive tax on poor people (ICE bans) actually gets implemented, all of the poor people who are forced to buy an unaffordable EV will vote for populists promising to unwind the bans.
This might be true in USA where society have built itself to be almost fully dependent on cars. As a non-american: I have not owned a car in 10 years. You are not forced to have to own a car by some force of nature.
For what it's worth, you might find this list handy the next time you find yourself in a discussion about car dependence and how it varies across the world.
The timelines for ICE bans within a decade are ridiculous from a technology and market standpoint and terrible for the environment. The best car technology is the one you don't use much. And we already have decades of cars in good enough condition to be driven weekly rather than daily. EVs will barely scratch the surface of environmental issues with transportation. And they will create a new range of supply problems…
I dont know, but London is pushing very agressively towards that goal. I am not sure if its a good idea, nothing seems to be a good idea in London, but the congestion charge and the newer diesel charges surely add up. And predictably, some of the worst usual suspects are exempt.
They're unlikely to succeed because if the massive tax on poor people (ICE bans) actually gets implemented, all of the poor people who are forced to buy an unaffordable EV will vote for populists promising to unwind the bans.
Not all countries are car-centric as USA
That's objectively true because it's an absolute. Most advanced nations are pretty much car-dependent, however.
It will be faster than you think, mostly because gas stations will be closing and so the inconvenience of fueling you car will cut that tail of - except for niches where EVs are particularly bad.
If you're the only gas station in an area, raising prices should be a better strategy than closing.
By then people who need fuel will know to special order it. Because if you are the only one selling gas that means someone lives in a less dense area that can't get fuel at all. Either that or you have competition, they are just not across the street and so you have to keep prices low enough people won't drive the extra miles to your competition.