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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#291

Post by jacquesm »

humanistbot wrote: post #283
jacquesm wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to be afraid of China to realize that outsourcing a very large fraction of all manufacturing for half the world to a single non-democratic country doesn't serve our interests in the long run.

> non-democratic country Just because a country is a democracy does not mean it will be a reliable trading partner. Democracies can easily swing from free market to protectionist trade policies -- and back. Outsourcing a very large fraction of all manufacturing for half the world to any single country is an incredibly risky idea.

A non democratic country has fewer checks and balances on these things than the ones that do. But you are right, that's not a guarantee at all. Just a matter of degree.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#292

Post by serf »

varispeed wrote: post #254
jacquesm wrote: post #230

In a way this is good news. The more China overplays its hand in this undeclared economic war the more likely that Western countries will realize that they are making the exact same mistake with China that they have made with Russia. You can't play nice with dictatorships in the hope that your long term economic interests will be aligned to the point that the other party will be forced to continue to play nice. China…

Most people don't want to try and make things, so they are unaware how incredibly f we are. Like I have little project and needed an enclosure made to order. Nothing fancy. Tried three rather known Western vendors and none could manufacture it to an acceptable standard. It was also very expensive and customer service seemed annoyed that I even want to order anything. I lost a lot of money on this, simply because I di…

>So it's China again. Amazing customer service, advanced options, short lead times.

This falls apart quickly when you come up with a product that would profit others through mimicry.

Those local manufacturers suddenly become a lot less expensive when you're cruising through Alibaba and you see the product you designed for sale in multiple colors at 2/3rds the cost you could have ever hoped to sell them for, through multiple vendors.

tl;dr : I could tell my story, I could tell my dad's story from 30 years prior, but here's the moral instead : taking IP overseas -- especially should that IP require special tooling that gets shipped around -- is crummy for a lot of reasons that may or may not come back to bite you.

Local manufacturing does have advantages, even if they may not apply to your specific needs.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#293

Post by sinoue »

humanistbot wrote: post #283
jacquesm wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to be afraid of China to realize that outsourcing a very large fraction of all manufacturing for half the world to a single non-democratic country doesn't serve our interests in the long run.

> non-democratic country Just because a country is a democracy does not mean it will be a reliable trading partner. Democracies can easily swing from free market to protectionist trade policies -- and back. Outsourcing a very large fraction of all manufacturing for half the world to any single country is an incredibly risky idea.

Democracies aren’t beholden to the ego of an authoritarian. Free trade for free countries, and a tyrant tax for authoritarian regimes should be the norm if we want human centered capitalism. https://freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=fiw&year=2023

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#294

Post by jacquesm »

serf wrote: post #292
varispeed wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people don't want to try and make things, so they are unaware how incredibly f we are. Like I have little project and needed an enclosure made to order. Nothing fancy. Tried three rather known Western vendors and none could manufacture it to an acceptable standard. It was also very expensive and customer service seemed annoyed that I even want to order anything. I lost a lot of money on this, simply because I di…

>So it's China again. Amazing customer service, advanced options, short lead times. This falls apart quickly when you come up with a product that would profit others through mimicry. Those local manufacturers suddenly become a lot less expensive when you're cruising through Alibaba and you see the product you designed for sale in multiple colors at 2/3rds the cost you could have ever hoped to sell them for, through m…

> Those local manufacturers suddenly become a lot less expensive when you're cruising through Alibaba and you see the product you designed for sale in multiple colors at 2/3rds the cost you could have ever hoped to sell them for, through multiple vendors.

No need to look far, two comments removed from yours is this one:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35462164

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#295

Post by nokarmacamel »

cpursley wrote: post #277
varispeed wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people don't want to try and make things, so they are unaware how incredibly f we are. Like I have little project and needed an enclosure made to order. Nothing fancy. Tried three rather known Western vendors and none could manufacture it to an acceptable standard. It was also very expensive and customer service seemed annoyed that I even want to order anything. I lost a lot of money on this, simply because I di…

Agree! I just ordered a custom made guitar ("NK headless guitars" on aliexpress for those who are interested). While's there's a bit of a language barrier, there's no way I could get close to the level of customer support and quality for the price ($500). You can't even start a conversation with a US/EU company for less than $2000k USD for a custom guitar build. This Chinese company started off cloning a well known b…

[dead]

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#296

Post by 8note »

jacquesm wrote: post #230

In a way this is good news. The more China overplays its hand in this undeclared economic war the more likely that Western countries will realize that they are making the exact same mistake with China that they have made with Russia. You can't play nice with dictatorships in the hope that your long term economic interests will be aligned to the point that the other party will be forced to continue to play nice. China…

The west has come to the same realization with the US as well, though it's been a slow burn.

It's not the dictatorship that makes china a problem needing the trade wars, it's power, and countries with power operate outside of the rules based systems. Countries who don't submit to the rules based order shouldn't benefit from it

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#297

Post by arroz »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #140
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

> It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand. Half the US population is asleep. During my undergrad years, I told my professor—then racing to get a foothold in China—that I thought war with China was inevitable. 15 to 25 years was my projection. He probably thought I was batshit crazy, but here we are. China’s now using shows of…

We are not at war and hopefully we won’t be

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#298

Post by CountSessine »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #269
CountSessine wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese government does, at present, strongly favor the status quo. There is only one external event - an event that takes place outside of China - that can seriously disrupt the CCP's rule over China and that is Taiwan successfully declaring independence and international recognition. It would be a humiliating loss of face for the CCP and would probably be followed by a desperate reshuffling within the party and…

> Taiwanese independence would be the nucleating particle for an explosion of domestic unrest and chaos Honest question: does it have to be? Couldn't they sneer it off and keep doing what they're doing: claim it's a rebellious province they're too busy to deal with?

Every dictatorship is seething with discontent among the elites. Dictators are rarely overthrown by revolutionaries - it's more common that they're deposed by their own generals. A public failure like Taiwanese independence isn't a problem for everyone in the Chinese government - for some, it could be an opportunity. If you're at the very top, you don't want that.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#299

Post by arroz »

nirav72 wrote: post #234
victorbstan wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think ideology plays less of a role than is assumed. I would posture “resources” or access to resources as the definitive driver no matter if the rhetoric is ideological or religious, etc. Taiwan manufactures a lot of electronics that China does not. It has know-how and capital (means of production) of things that are important to China, China cannot manufacture, and USA, Chinas rival, has access to —- and also rel…

> It has know-how and capital (means of production) of things that are important to China It has the capital. Not the Know-how or expertise. If it did, it wouldn't be stuck manufacturing lower end semi-conductors. In a hypothetical scenario - where China does manage to successfully invade the island, they won't be able to keep the foundries running for long. Because most of the design, IP, machinery and chemicals use…

Stuck manufacturing low end semiconductors? Taiwan? Low end? What?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#300

Post by serf »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #245
thrashh wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You didn't provide evidence. Your argument is that "the government didn't take Russia seriously enough" Proper evidence would be an study of government officials in power and their position at the time. It is not 3 hand-picked private industry news articles.

> Proper evidence would be an study of government officials in power and their position at the time. > It is not 3 hand-picked private industry news articles. It reflects public sentiment. Analysts aren’t the ones in power. Public sentiment and leadership’s will to bend the public sentiment are what matters. See GWB’s bullshit invasion of Iraq.

>See GWB’s bullshit invasion of Iraq.

on that point, I seem to remember all (most) of the analyst think-tanks for public policy (RAND corporation, etc) pointing the administration at the time towards the idea of war and 'obvious' WMD proliferation.

Also public sentiment was pretty on-board with (apparent) retribution after 9/11. The country got tired of the war effort quick, but the trumpets were blowing pretty loud for a long time after 9/11, both from government and the people around me at the time.

The analyst groups supporting that decision just sped the steamroller.

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