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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#131

Post by Despegar »

barelysapient wrote: post #17
hunglee2 wrote: post #5

is this an attempt to suppress the innovation rate of other countries?

I think its more a tit-for-tat response to previous US trade restrictions.

That's exactly what it is. The US decided (beginning with the Trump administration) that the status quo was unacceptable and has decided to "decouple" and increasingly contain China's development with export controls. No one should be surprised that there's retaliation, but everyone pretends that it's the other side that is the aggressor while they are simply the innocent victim.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#132

Post by imp0cat »

edgyquant wrote: post #88
FpUser wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"The West learned a lot during the first cold war and will outlast." During the CWI (ha I just coined the new Cold War I term) we did not get hi-tech stuff from the opponent. In CWII we are not that lucky and have no immediate replacement for many things. I am afraid if this thing really gets up to speed we a heading for disaster. That the other side suffers as well or even worse is no consolation.

What high tech stuff do we get from China?

Mostly Apple stuff, probably?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#133

Post by majormajor »

sohex wrote: post #46
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

The leadership of China are happy to answer that question for you. You may want to reject those reasons, but I think it's dangerous to substitute your own reasoning for theirs: you risk having the significant differences in your worldview causing massive blindspots about what "real analysis" would mean to them. People said the same stuff about whether or not they'd start to take more direct control of Hong Kong early.

Similarly, it feels like the "Trump is just saying that for PR, he would stop doing and saying crazy stuff if he wins the election" 2016 discourse. Sometimes you should believe people when they say what they're gonna do. (See also: overturning Roe v Wade, a core idea of Republican discourse for decades.) Or "what does the US gain from invading Afghanistan and Iraq in real terms, other than just satisfying some loud calls for arbitrary blood?"

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#134

Post by antibasilisk »

vkou wrote: post #122
antibasilisk wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why's that?

Because without a working network, it becomes impossible to actually use it as currency. At least bars of gold, or gold-coated tungsten, or pirate treasure, or papiermarks or dollars or lottery scratchers or bottlecaps can physically change hands in exchange for goods.

A postal network is enough of a network

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#135

Post by lenkite »

gscott wrote: post #126
lenkite wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have always considered Taiwan part of China. The US even agreed and signed a treaty regarding that. The United States' One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. Since then, the US devolved first to strategic ambiguity and then recently to…

Taiwan's output of chips requires inputs from the rest of the world including Japan. At this time it doesn't make sense for china to cut out it's main source of high tech chips. It could make sense later if China had its own supply of chips and could cut out Taiwan altogether. China is pushing hard to make their own non-liberal order but China also depends on exports. Also China's political system is based upon absol…

> We have no political control in Cuba even though we did take a portion of the island.

I think the Chinese will be extremely happy with a similar arrangement. Taiwanese government can continue, there will just be a nice, big military base right next door keeping an eye.

I am sure all those folks captured and tortured in Guantanamo Bay in "independent" Cuba were very happy with the level of control the U.S. applied there. Something that would have still been hidden and a state secret if not for Wikileaks. But the guy who leaked it has now been made to pay for it and is now imprisoned and in isolation.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#136

Post by mullingitover »

gscott wrote: post #112
mullingitover wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I learned recently was that when the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan, they took a vast trove of priceless Chinese antiquities with them. This has long been a sore spot for China, which makes the desire to annex Taiwan not simply a dollars and cents tactical goal but also a matter of national pride. It's like if we had a right-wing revolution in the US, and the current national government fled to Nova Scotia with…

They did take them and a good thing too. In the cultural revolution the CCP destroyed the priceless Chinese antiquities on the mainland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Olds

Totally, and I'm not making any judgment about whether it was right or wrong to take all the antiquities. However, I think the current regime in China has different ideas about the value of these antiquities, and so they're eager to get them back for the sense of legitimacy and connection to China's history that they would bring.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#138

Post by HWR_14 »

WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #121
throwawaymaths wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the wrong question. The right question is: what does the leader of china gain by ordering an invasion of Taiwan?

If I were him, I'd prefer the status quo. Invading Taiwan is not a 100% success guarantee and surely Xi doesn't want to end up like Putin in Ukraine. Even a (military) success would threaten his rule, simply by the economical consequences. That's a lot of risks for very little rewards. But who knows ... we can just hope for the sake of all of us, that the Chinese have better intelligence and better risk assessment th…

I think you have the causality backwards. When the economic reality looks bleak, a patriotic war is always a way to distract people.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#139

Post by agentultra »

Aren't the materials to make rare-earth magnets... not actually that rare? It's only rare in the sense of their dispersal in the earth's crust, this making it a rather dirty and ecologically disruptive activity sourcing them. The US could theoretically start producing rare-earth metals, couldn't they?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#140

Post by nobodyandproud »

causi wrote: post #33
moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

> It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

Half the US population is asleep. During my undergrad years, I told my professor—then racing to get a foothold in China—that I thought war with China was inevitable.

15 to 25 years was my projection. He probably thought I was batshit crazy, but here we are.

China’s now using shows of military force as well as soft-power projection like CGTN.

Meanwhile we’re still struggling to bring back manufacturing capabilities.

If I had the means, I would be lobbying hard for a 30 year plan 5/10/20/30 to revamp our capabilities.

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