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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#251

Post by klodolph »

jacquesm wrote: post #239
klodolph wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am less convinced that China is really good at playing the long game, and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles that we see in the US. It’s just so easy to tap into our fears of China that we want to believe that they’re this smart and ruthless. We look for evidence to validate our feelings. There are deposits of these rare earth minerals elsewhere. There are always more depos…

You don't need to be afraid of China to realize that outsourcing a very large fraction of all manufacturing for half the world to a single non-democratic country doesn't serve our interests in the long run.

True, but we do have to let go of our fear of China if we want to have any hope of figuring out what our own actions should be.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#252

Post by klodolph »

joecool1029 wrote: post #250
klodolph wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am less convinced that China is really good at playing the long game, and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles that we see in the US. It’s just so easy to tap into our fears of China that we want to believe that they’re this smart and ruthless. We look for evidence to validate our feelings. There are deposits of these rare earth minerals elsewhere. There are always more depos…

>and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles Who's going to vote their government out or jam things up with filibuster? For better or worse their government just 'does'. You cannot seriously compare a system like this to US/UK democracy paralyzation during things like COVID. I do not think their system is better or worse, it's just not subject to any kind of politics internally th…

> I do not think their system is better or worse, it's just not subject to any kind of politics internally that would get in the way of whatever the hell their national intentions of the now are.

If you are arguing that the Communist Party of China is not subject to internal politics, I don’t think that argument will withstand much scrutiny. Think about how much internal politics there are within the Democratic party or the Republican party of the US. Having a one-party state does not inoculate a country from internal politics.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#253

Post by CountSessine »

mullingitover wrote: post #136
gscott wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They did take them and a good thing too. In the cultural revolution the CCP destroyed the priceless Chinese antiquities on the mainland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Olds

Totally, and I'm not making any judgment about whether it was right or wrong to take all the antiquities. However, I think the current regime in China has different ideas about the value of these antiquities, and so they're eager to get them back for the sense of legitimacy and connection to China's history that they would bring.

I guarantee you that if they gave those antiquities back it wouldn't change a thing.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#254

Post by varispeed »

jacquesm wrote: post #230

In a way this is good news. The more China overplays its hand in this undeclared economic war the more likely that Western countries will realize that they are making the exact same mistake with China that they have made with Russia. You can't play nice with dictatorships in the hope that your long term economic interests will be aligned to the point that the other party will be forced to continue to play nice. China…

Most people don't want to try and make things, so they are unaware how incredibly f we are.

Like I have little project and needed an enclosure made to order. Nothing fancy. Tried three rather known Western vendors and none could manufacture it to an acceptable standard. It was also very expensive and customer service seemed annoyed that I even want to order anything. I lost a lot of money on this, simply because I didn't want to support China.

Unfortunately had to hold my nose and go with Chinese. It's a night and day difference. Customer service was helpful and guided me through everything - and the quality. Damn. All dimensions exactly on point, no gaps, no off angles, no chipped paint, just perfect. The price was very similar to what I paid to more expensive Western company, but the value for money - no comparison.

It's even worse with PCBs. There is one company in Europe that I could recommend, but they are rather expensive and I wouldn't use it for larger quantity - the cost of the end product would mean you wouldn't be able to compete.

So it's China again. Amazing customer service, advanced options, short lead times.

We are so f.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#256

Post by WastingMyTime89 »

nirav72 wrote: post #157
nobodyandproud wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain. We’re much closer than we were 20 years ago. Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine; nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong. Unless the CCP forces Xi out, their hardliners and the middle-kingdom mindset have al…

>Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine Who is 'Nobody' in this context? Because most analysis on this since Russia took Crimea in 2014 have predicated that Russia would make further attempts at capturing Ukrainian territory. Even the U.S defense establishment knew this and were preparing the Ukrainians for since 2015.

> Because most analysis on this since Russia took Crimea in 2014 have predicated that Russia would make further attempts at capturing Ukrainian territory.

That’s very much untrue.

It was hard for experts to form a solid opinion after the Crimean invasion. It had some characteristics which the current one doesn’t have which made it rational from a realpolitik point of view.

The invasion had a clear strategic benefit: keeping access to Sevastopol, came at a time when the relationship between Russia and Ukraine was quickly shifting and was made easier by the complicated relationship between Crimea and Ukraine.

None of these applies to the current conflict.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#257

Post by nobodyandproud »

thrashh wrote: post #233
nobodyandproud wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you suggesting someone should have pre-emptively invaded Russia after Crimea, thus instead of worrying about a possible full-blown invasion, get it out of the way and just guarantee one? That’s quite a leap of logic there. I think it’s enough to recognize that many believed a full invasion wasn’t in the cards. > Because as far as I know, the right people expected something to happen — there is just the issue of…

What are you talking about? Do you not remember this whole thing? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_... Or the talk about nations joining NATO? Or the discussion about how because we expect Russia to do something, we actually are not sure about NATO anymore because we don't want to be obligated to enter in a war ? Here's an 2021 article about US pressure on Germany to stop the import of more…

> The US did all the things that you are complaining that it didn't do.

Strange. Do you believe the US is the entire Western civilization?

And do you believe if the entire US believed Russia was going to invade, that we wouldn’t have pressured Germany even more?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#258

Post by varispeed »

medo-bear wrote: post #149
nobodyandproud wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand. Half the US population is asleep. During my undergrad years, I told my professor—then racing to get a foothold in China—that I thought war with China was inevitable. 15 to 25 years was my projection. He probably thought I was batshit crazy, but here we are. China’s now using shows of…

about 20 years ago i asked an old commie (proper commie, with portraits of marx engels lenin proudly hung on the wall and a library to show) what he thinks of china. his response stuck with me to this day in china you don't have socialism. what you have in china is a market for head-nooses and western capitalists are the main customer. it's absolutely genius!

Ironically though, the reason why the West gone to China for manufacturing is that people in the West wanted employment rights, minimum wage and all sort of socialist protections, but they didn't want to pay for it.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#259

Post by stainablesteel »

petilon wrote: post #108

Relevant: Huge rare earth metals discovery in Arctic Sweden https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64253708 But it will take 10 to 15 years to process it.

> Well, we're not exactly sure what elements they have found yet. What they have said is that they've - they will be producing at least two elements. One is called neodymium, and the other is called praseodymium

still missing a lot of them unfortunately, the rest are only found within chinese territory

i had last heard of the us military trying to target specific parts of the asteroid belt to make up for their lack of natural resources in this regard, and given their recent feats over the last few years with asteroids i have high hopes for that

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#260

Post by CountSessine »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #158
WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were him, I'd prefer the status quo. Invading Taiwan is not a 100% success guarantee and surely Xi doesn't want to end up like Putin in Ukraine. Even a (military) success would threaten his rule, simply by the economical consequences. That's a lot of risks for very little rewards. But who knows ... we can just hope for the sake of all of us, that the Chinese have better intelligence and better risk assessment th…

The Chinese government does, at present, strongly favor the status quo. However, it's becoming increasingly clear that the US is shifting away from the One China policy. That shift is deeply alarming the Chinese government. There doesn't seem to be anyone in American politics who is capable of pressing the breaks, slowing down the drive towards confrontation, and reengaging in real diplomacy with China. In the end, t…

The Chinese government does, at present, strongly favor the status quo.

There is only one external event - an event that takes place outside of China - that can seriously disrupt the CCP's rule over China and that is Taiwan successfully declaring independence and international recognition.

It would be a humiliating loss of face for the CCP and would probably be followed by a desperate reshuffling within the party and perhaps even a civil war. The CCP is strong and rigid, but like ceramic, not like steel. Their only mandate rests on China's continued economic and diplomatic success. Taiwanese independence would be the nucleating particle for an explosion of domestic unrest and chaos.

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