I wasn't worried about this until Chase Bank felt the need to publish "Reasons the crisis isn't a repeat of 2008"
I was about to say this I’m legitimately worried now -_-‘ Anywhere I can read about why things are so bad they had to publish this?
Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
341–350 of 441 posts
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#342I'd argue a big difference between 2008 and now is that in 2008 we mostly saw an institutional run on the bank after Lehman, i.e. money market funds and other banks not trusting banks and refusing to lend longer term than overnight. What we are seeing now is a retail run on the bank, the electronic equivalent of people hearing rumours on the street and queuing in front of branches (except now with twitter and their b…
Nothing happened “after Lehman”. The Lehman collapse was a result of what came before it — the liquidity crisis, the bank runs, and the stock market crash.
Does anyone remember the sign boards outside every bank offering up to 10% interest on short term CDs in the fall of 2008?
When my mom called in February this year about opening a “savings account” for the grandkids at 5 1/2% interest, I knew something was up. Because the going rate the month before (and ever since 2009) was something like 1/10 of 1%
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#343Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this is a skewed perspective. In case of a war the Chinese leaders won't care about the fact that they won't be able to sell their plasticky stuff to Europe or the US, they'll only care to have enough food for their population and enough raw materials for their Army (it takes lots of iron and access to cheap energy to make lots of artillery shells). Lack of enough food for their population was what brought th…
Nah. It's time to let Russia fall apart; if they can't even throw their weight around in their region they aren't any use to us against China.
We'll have to buy their nukes at some point.
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#344Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It what? Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up. > Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general. Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. > 2019's inflation was below target. Which target? The one the Fed determines? Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnesse…
> Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence? > Which target? 2% > Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is goin…
> So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence?
Economists make wrong predictions all the time. Am saying Schiff is not exactly entirely wrong on some of the ones he's made in the past.
> ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.
Have you? The last time the inflation rate was even near 4% was in April 2021 [0].
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#345The fact that they publish this in the first place, is worrying, to say the least. It's also quite true - the banking crisis won't be a repeat of 2008. But, unlike 2008 which was fairly limited to (arguably huge) banking and residential mortgage sectors, this crisis will hit hard everywhere - valuations are still insane, the % of zombie companies is off the charts, inflation is everywhere, FED and governments have mu…
Buffett is continuously buying, Berkshire's equity positions are in the public record. You can google "Berkshire 13F" to see public US holdings.
Credit Suisse was troubled for a long time, their controversy section on Wikipedia is pretty crazy ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_Suisse#Controversies )
Global oil prices have been steadily declining for months, electricity is much cheaper again in Europe and many supply chain bottlenecks have been resolved. This will put a strong break on inflation going forward
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#346Earlier quoted context omitted.
So they should be told not to do that and be put in prison if they persist. We (the people) make the rules, but the regulators are rather too cosy with the bankers. I'd start by stopping any securitization and having the banks keep all their loan assets on their own balance sheets.
We don't make the rules. They do. If sensible people made the rules the financial industry would be stable and boring, inequality would be far lower than it is, prosperity would be far wider, and life would generally be more pleasant and financially successful - not just for a small cadre of middle class programmers, but for everyone.
How often we've heard these sentiments. "If only sensible people (meaning the ones who agree with me) made the rules..."
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#347History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…
"Predicted this in 2008" is a funny sentence. If I now predicted that what the Fed is doing will result in an amazing economy, would it really count if it happened in 15 years? Peter Schiff is always predicting doom. It's not that he's talking complete nonsense, but objectively he is more wrong than right. His opinions corelate less to being correct and more to the fact that he invests a lot in gold, and his interest…
Peter Schiff has predicted 23 of the last 2 recessions.
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#348Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because if the fed wrote software it wouldn't stay in business for long.
I wonder how long a financial system would stay running if the programmers took over, probably about the same
We don't have to wonder. DAO, FTX, Genesis, Three Arrows, BlockFi, Celsius, etc.
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#349Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence? > Which target? 2% > Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is goin…
> So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence? Economists make wrong predictions all the time. Am saying Schiff is not exactly entirely wrong on some of the ones he's made in the past. > ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.…
Wrong chart. That's a rolling average of 12 months.
The peak was in June, so it's still dragging the yearly number up. The last 8 months were much lower than the previous several.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mo...
https://i.imgur.com/MBwyLjJ.png
Though that chart also shows inflation dropping...
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#350Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nah. It's time to let Russia fall apart; if they can't even throw their weight around in their region they aren't any use to us against China.
We'll have to buy their nukes at some point.
Sure, just like we did with Ukraine. That's what a money spigot is for.