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Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

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Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#131

Post by matheusmoreira »

JasonFruit wrote: post #64
pessimizer wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

> It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. It's stupid and risky for either the US or China to escalate a war that threatens to become a global conflict between nuclear powers. I wish saner heads urging restraint would prevail.

As opposed to what, just allowing the US to dominate you? Some people would rather destroy this planet than be subjugated by a foreign power. I don't blame them. At least they have the strength necessary to present such a credible threat. I wish my country did.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#132

Post by treaxc »

andy_ppp wrote: post #84
roenxi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

Were the countries around China coerced to be friendly with America somehow? I’m pretty sure the CIA do a lot of evil shit to maintain American power around the world but I’m really not sure they are this omnipotent. I think these countries are simply more scared of China than they are the US, until that changes China will be surrounded by US friendly countries.

The point that roenxi made is that color revolutions in Russia and Kazakhstan would encircle China from the West and North in addition to the existing U.S. allies Japan and South Korea from the Southwest.

It isn't a moral statement, just one realistic scenario that China is afraid of.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#133

Post by [deleted] »

grugagag wrote: post #74
simonh wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buy crypto in China, sell it abroad. At least that was one approach. Note if you do it fairly quickly it doesn't matter what the value of the crypto is, just the liquidity. Another way is 'business' investments in other SE Asian countries, that then get liquidated and moved further abroad. China does a lot of business with S. Korea for example. If you have an export company, and China exports a lot, you can hold a po…

> Buy crypto in China, sell it abroad. I heard this many times and I can’t figure out how it works. Crypto is sortof banned in China for a while for this reason and yet it’s still a route to take money out of China. But how? Who is going to give you crypto for yen in China?

[deleted]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#134

Post by gebruikersnaam »

wsc981 wrote: post #104
wkat4242 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. What US-Friendly states are between Russia and the Donbass then?

I think he meant that Russia is pretty much surrounded by NATO allies, excluding of course China and this is something Russia is not to happy about (stated this many times in the past as NATO was expanding).

> I think he meant that Russia is pretty much surrounded by NATO allies, excluding of course China

And Kazakhstan. And Mongolia. And North Korea. And Belarus.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#135

Post by chaostheory »

roenxi wrote: post #62
ChemSpider wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

I think you’re ignoring the fact that China has been very aggressive with its border claims in the Pacific. Under Xi, they’ve literally invaded small islands controlled by south East Asian countries. It’s more than enough to push countries like Vietnam to the US.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#136

Post by gebruikersnaam »

ericmay wrote: post #101
gebruikersnaam wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which countries surrounding China are US-friendly?

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are 3 that make up a Pacific encirclement (probably the Philippines and perhaps Australia if you want to go that far). Typically that’s what people refer to when they say “surrounded” but obviously China isn’t completely surrounded. The reason these three are used in this context is because Chinese power projection assumes an outward eastern presence in the Pacific and not westward or n…

Surrounding seems to have gotten a new meaning: just being somewhere in the vicinity.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#137

Post by anonymouskimmer »

chaostheory wrote: post #76
andy_ppp wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ever centralisation around one man is incredibly short sighted. The Chinese system used to be much more sophisticated, having both a very capitalistic view of the world and a very communistic view. They have completely lost half of that and even the communism will disappear if things start going wrong - all that will be left is maintaining the dictatorship at all costs.

Deng Xiaoping created the seeds of destruction for his reforms when he crushed the peaceful democracy protesters in Tiananmen. This has led to mess after mess with Jiang Zemin, leading eventually to the biggest disaster of them all: Xi In an alternate timeline, one can imagine what a democratic China would look like: - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen - Chinese media would have been a strong…

> - Taiwan would willing reunify with the mainland. There would be no looming war

From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. If mainland democratization happened early enough, maybe, but I don't see what a small country in Taiwan's position has to gain by merger with a larger one.

> - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen

To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway? Silicon Valley is kind of unique even in the USA. I've read this is because of particularly startup-friendly California laws. Is there reason to believe these startup-friendly laws would have been duplicated in Shenzhen? Or some other reason to believe Shenzhen would have turned into a Silicon Valley rival otherwise?

> - the Chinese domestic market would have been opened up to the world long ago

Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#138

Post by chaostheory »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #120
ChemSpider wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

The west will only shoot its own foot with such sanctions. World economy melted down after sanctioning Russia. Imagine sanctioning China, the country which the entire world depends on for the cheap consumer goods that keeps the engine of capitalism running.

It’s definitely the end of the US dollar as the global reserve currency, but you’re acting as if we had a choice when idiot dictators are committing shortsighted mayhem.

Decoupling will be painful, but not as painful to the US as it will be to China.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#139

Post by andy_ppp »

wsc981 wrote: post #104
wkat4242 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. What US-Friendly states are between Russia and the Donbass then?

I think he meant that Russia is pretty much surrounded by NATO allies, excluding of course China and this is something Russia is not to happy about (stated this many times in the past as NATO was expanding).

If they were really scared of more NATO invading Ukraine is the fastest way to get a larger border with NATO (win or lose).

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#140

Post by simonh »

treaxc wrote: post #116
grugagag wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Buy crypto in China, sell it abroad. I heard this many times and I can’t figure out how it works. Crypto is sortof banned in China for a while for this reason and yet it’s still a route to take money out of China. But how? Who is going to give you crypto for yen in China?

You buy a large number of ASIC crypto miners in China.

Indeed, I was simplifying perhaps a bit too much. There are ways to arbitrage capital in China into capital abroad via crypto.
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