Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

asiamarkets.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 270 posts

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#61

Post by andy_ppp »

jacquesm wrote: post #57
passwordoops wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be all of the above, but for at least a year I have been reading how the real estate bubble that's underpinning the Chinese growth economy is starting to pop with the potential to bleed into the banking system, e.g. [0] If this happens, and is at bad as some analysts say it could be, then the model propping up the CCP effectively ends [1] and they'll have bigger things to worry about than re-unification or tari…

And that in turn might cause them to start a war... Because when the regime has nothing to lose all bets are off, even though it makes no sense whatsoever. They will have to distract from their culpability somehow.

The ever centralisation around one man is incredibly short sighted. The Chinese system used to be much more sophisticated, having both a very capitalistic view of the world and a very communistic view. They have completely lost half of that and even the communism will disappear if things start going wrong - all that will be left is maintaining the dictatorship at all costs.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#62

Post by roenxi »

ChemSpider wrote: post #40
foota wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be in preparation for supplying arms to Russia.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid...

The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely.

While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that situation from the perspective of a hypothetical Chinese military planner. A destabilised Russia would potentially have a colour revolution leading to a US encirclement on 3 compass points. China would therefore have no choice but to support the war effort against Ukraine.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#63

Post by marcus_holmes »

dragonelite wrote: post #58

Have been hearing these kind of "capital flight" stories for decade plus now somehow big financial institutions keep pushing more FDI into China. See i'm not an economist but you can't that sounds a bit counter intuitive too me. One story says China has capital flight and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China.

The article is talking about retail banking, which is different from investment into stocks and shares.

It's perfectly possible to have retail banking customers living abroad removing large amounts of capital from China, while at the same time foreign investors are injecting large amounts of capital into China. Two different flows.

I think the biggest impact is going to be places like Australia that benefit greatly from Chinese nationals abroad at the moment. There are lots of Chinese students and Chinese property owners in Australia. If they can't get access to their money, that's going to hurt Australia more than China.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#64

Post by JasonFruit »

pessimizer wrote: post #49
ChemSpider wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

> It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free.

It's stupid and risky for either the US or China to escalate a war that threatens to become a global conflict between nuclear powers. I wish saner heads urging restraint would prevail.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#65

Post by TexanFeller »

ajvs wrote: post #52
pessimizer wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

The risk is that China becomes a pariah to the West, which much of their economic system depends on.

The US depends on China to a level where I'd say they own us, not the other way around. They play a large part in making almost every product we use in the US, without trade with them we're screwed.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#66

Post by andy_ppp »

logifail wrote: post #60
andy_ppp wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bought fully into the Russian propaganda then… you’d do well to listen to pretty much any interview by Fiona Hill and you’d quickly realise there’s nothing the US wants less than borders starting to be changed by wars; there are so many disputed lines that it could lead to conflicts all over the world. China starting a proxy war with the US and Europe is going to be extremely bad for business.

> there’s nothing the US wants less than borders starting to be changed by wars I think it's a major mistake to talk about any country as if it's one homogenous, unanimous entity. There are those in the US, and elsewhere, who stand to make a great deal of out of money from war.

Which part of the American government forced Putin to invade Ukraine? I presume you have some evidence of this because you sound so sure it was all planned?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#67

Post by koreanguy »

diceduckmonk wrote: post #15
1letterunixname wrote: post #9

It's my opinion there are generally 4 kinds of Chinese UHNWIs: 1. Mainland with no interest in foreign investment 2. Mainland mostly with some foreign investments 3. Split between mainland and foreign 4. Trying to move mostly foreign while keeping some in mainland (generally to take care of family or business concerns back home) In the US as a more stable asset haven, hot real estate markets are usually where large p…

I mean technically people can’t own land in China, they’re just leasing it from the government. This assumption has been baked into real estate prices but people bid it up anyways.

[dead]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#68

Post by diceduckmonk »

ceejayoz wrote: post #56
diceduckmonk wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need an official to authorize personal expenditures on an Amex Centurion black card. This is why staff at luxury clothing stores in Venice speak Chinese.

That card stops working pretty quick if you can’t manage to get money out of China and into Amex’s hands.

And that's why people proxy through Hong Kong and own overseas holding companies. Just don't be a thorn to the party.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#69

Post by rendall »

dragonelite wrote: post #58

Have been hearing these kind of "capital flight" stories for decade plus now somehow big financial institutions keep pushing more FDI into China. See i'm not an economist but you can't that sounds a bit counter intuitive too me. One story says China has capital flight and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China.

> ...and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China.

Source? All of my sources have it that foreign investors are shy after consistent rounds of government interference and even nationalization.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#70

Post by coffeeblack »

dragonelite wrote: post #58

Have been hearing these kind of "capital flight" stories for decade plus now somehow big financial institutions keep pushing more FDI into China. See i'm not an economist but you can't that sounds a bit counter intuitive too me. One story says China has capital flight and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China.

Rich Chinese are getting their money out of the country, because if their money is in China, they don't really own it. The CCP could take it any day and there would be nothing they could do about it.

And then there is Western capital, used to rule of law and personal property. They don't see that reality as a realistic threat. So they keep pumping money into China. It will work. Until it doesn't. And then the CCP will simply take it.

But somehow I suspect that it will be a "too big to fail" situation, and all those losses will be socialized in the West, i.e. the Western governments pay for the losses probably.

Post reply on HN