Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify • Hacker News Board

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#81

Post by newsclues » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:12 PM UTC

diceduckmonk wrote: post #78

newsclues wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cbc.ca/books/wilful-blindness-1.6136088 Organized Crime in places like Vancouver smuggles drugs into Canada, the funds are laundered in casinos and real estate, and the money is transferred from the Wealthy in China to OC in China, and the wealthy investor gets clean cash and houses in Canada.

Why make it complicated? Macau has casinos. The belt and road initiative into Cambodia also involved casinos, but they're reeling back on that.

Diversity and security of investments.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#82

Post by marcus_holmes » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:13 PM UTC

coffeeblack wrote: post #73

marcus_holmes wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is talking about retail banking, which is different from investment into stocks and shares. It's perfectly possible to have retail banking customers living abroad removing large amounts of capital from China, while at the same time foreign investors are injecting large amounts of capital into China. Two different flows. I think the biggest impact is going to be places like Australia that benefit greatly f…

Do Australians benefit? Not being able to buy houses.

Agree totally. Australian development companies (and some of them are part-owned or fully-owned by Chinese nationals) benefit from the property investment. And Aussie Universities are basically funded by Chinese students now (not that the quality has improved, just the staffing levels). But the average Aussie doesn't benefit.

Imho we should do what the Asian countries do: disallow buying property in Australia from non-Aussie citizens (or at least non-residents).

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#83

Post by wkat4242 » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:15 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #62

ChemSpider wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely.

What US-Friendly states are between Russia and the Donbass then?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#84

Post by andy_ppp » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:15 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #62

ChemSpider wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

Were the countries around China coerced to be friendly with America somehow? I’m pretty sure the CIA do a lot of evil shit to maintain American power around the world but I’m really not sure they are this omnipotent. I think these countries are simply more scared of China than they are the US, until that changes China will be surrounded by US friendly countries.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#85

Post by chaostheory » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:17 PM UTC

TexanFeller wrote: post #65

ajvs wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk is that China becomes a pariah to the West, which much of their economic system depends on.

The US depends on China to a level where I'd say they own us, not the other way around. They play a large part in making almost every product we use in the US, without trade with them we're screwed.

Decoupling has already started and is accelerating. It’s possible to be mostly done within 8 years

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#86

Post by wkat4242 » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:17 PM UTC

Zigurd wrote: post #54

pessimizer wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

Globalization is sponsored by the US, and the US could reverse that. Without US defense of oil shipping routes, China sucks oil through a long, thin straw from an unreliable partner. Just those two factors amount to material risk.

Don't forget that China has significant oil reserves too, they're just hardly tapping them because they know oil only becomes worth more over time.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#87

Post by Overtonwindow » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:17 PM UTC

Can China prop up its economy forever?

There has been some alarming articles about China's economy the past year, particularly that the real estate market, exports, and other issues are putting the company into a very terrible financial situation. However, the government in China IS the bank. They can declare a company solvent that is not, bailout anyone and everyone, shut down companies at will, etc.

In such a non-market economy, where the government controls everything, how does one measure the economy and its likelihood of implosion?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#88

Post by throwaway6734 » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:17 PM UTC

Zigurd wrote: post #54

pessimizer wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

Globalization is sponsored by the US, and the US could reverse that. Without US defense of oil shipping routes, China sucks oil through a long, thin straw from an unreliable partner. Just those two factors amount to material risk.

Iirc they are highly dependent on fertilizer imports as well

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#89

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:17 PM UTC

macinjosh wrote: post #80

andy_ppp wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bought fully into the Russian propaganda then… you’d do well to listen to pretty much any interview by Fiona Hill and you’d quickly realise there’s nothing the US wants less than borders starting to be changed by wars; there are so many disputed lines that it could lead to conflicts all over the world. China starting a proxy war with the US and Europe is going to be extremely bad for business.

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#90

Post by stevev » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 2:18 PM UTC

ChemSpider wrote: post #40

foota wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be in preparation for supplying arms to Russia.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

Well meanwhile the US is sending military aid targeting the donbas region, so what’s the difference?