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One Year into the War in Ukraine

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Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#41

Post by jen20 »

scohesc wrote: post #22
miguelazo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It really does seem that way... I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point so that Russia can't respond as aggress…

> western expansionism

Pretty sure you just revealed your agenda there.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#42

Post by risyachka »

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

Russia is a military state. They have about a million of police and other military forces inside the country.

And internal separatist movements are so tiny you can handle them with 1/1000 of the force they have.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#43

Post by andrey123 »

JohnFen wrote: post #36
scohesc wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really does seem that way... I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point so that Russia can't respond as aggress…

> I wish the west would stay out of conflicts it doesn't have a stake in I think there's a solid human rights reason to be involved in the way we are. But even ignoring that, I also think we do have a stake in this. > The fastest way out of the war is negotiation unfortunately Russia wants no negotiation that doesn't result in them stealing territory from Ukraine. You can't negotiate with that.

> Russia wants no negotiation that doesn't result in them stealing territory from Ukraine. You can't negotiate with that.

You can negotiate with that, people were and are doing this all the time. The problem is that it very likely would result in just a pause and further (probably worse) conflict later.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#44

Post by jen20 »

peyton wrote: post #19
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin's stated intentions, which were, and I quote "And for this we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine". So even though they were stated clearly, they made little sense if you assume they aren't trying to take over Ukraine.

What do you mean? His speech [1] is really clear. I’m extremely disappointed in the reporting by the news here. [1]: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843

Clear is not the same as making sense.

I can say the words "Dog Cat Microwave Book" and they would be clear, and make about as much sense as the idea of "denazifying" Ukraine.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#45

Post by oriolid »

retconekt wrote: post #28

"Urban warfare is brutally difficult and has in the past not been a particular strength of the Russian Federation.” Ahem, Stalingrad Cough, splutter, gurgling blood..

Usually the defender is expected to have advantage but somehow Soviet Union ended up with higher casualties than losing side.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#46

Post by TylerE »

risyachka wrote: post #42
Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

Russia is a military state. They have about a million of police and other military forces inside the country. And internal separatist movements are so tiny you can handle them with 1/1000 of the force they have.

They also thought they could take Ukraine in about the time it took Hitler to blitz into Poland.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#47

Post by RivieraKid »

pydry wrote: post #25
notahacker wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't really see Transnistria as remotely useful as a bargaining chip. Sure it's propped up by Russia and would eventually be integrated into Russia under Putin's wildest imperial fantasies, but it's not Russia, its people mostly aren't Russian and I'm not sure it's all that valuable either. All a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria would do is give Putin's claims about Ukrainian aggression some veneer of legitimacy a…

>its people mostly aren't Russian They basically are. They speak Russian and act like Russians. I doubt they'd mind being annexed.

I've recently read that only about 30% identify as Russians.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#48

Post by freefrog334433 »

yks wrote: post #24
miguelazo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Appeasing the aggressors by giving up territories is not going to stop the war long term until there is nothing to give up. Not only history shows it again and again, but the basic psychology behind this is clear after a first encounter with a bully which many people do as soon as kindergarten. The only outcome of this faux pacifism is the destruction of Ukrainian state with the following butchering of Ukrainian cult…

No appeasement has been the reason for fighting wars since WW2. This shows a misunderstanding of the wars. In Vietnam, it was called the domino theory, except Vietnam was a war of independence. The war on terror - invade Iraq so the terrorist don't come here. The Russians are not going to invade NATO countries.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#49

Post by int_19h »

yucky wrote: post #33
ROTMetro wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean the conflict in Donbas that killed 25 people in 2021, mainly from mines? Hardly justification for Russia's invasion.

Thousands have been killed on both sides of that conflict since 2014, handpicking a temporary downturn in 2021 is a bit disingenuous, no?

It wasn't a "temporary downturn". If you look at the graph of casualties in Donbas before 2022, the first 2 years of fighting in 2014-2015 see the vast majority of casualties, and then it goes down sharply from there.

By 2021, this much lower rate was a well-established status quo, and this was reflected even in official government briefings from separatist republics and Russia itself. For example, DNR published (https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3467017.html) its own stats claiming a grand total of 70 military casualties and 7 civilians for the entirety of 2021 - a proportion, by the way, that tells you volumes about where that fire was aimed.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#50

Post by okasaki »

risyachka wrote: post #42
Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

Russia is a military state. They have about a million of police and other military forces inside the country. And internal separatist movements are so tiny you can handle them with 1/1000 of the force they have.

What does that mean? Is the US a military state?
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