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One Year into the War in Ukraine

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Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#31

Post by andrey123 »

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

Last time I checked there was more than 1 million in internal forces (militia, rosgvardia, troops, probably some others). They are armed, trained specifically to suppress and loyal. I (looking from the inside) highly doubt that they will change sides unless they stop receiving paycheck. Of course, some regions are a bit special in this respect but they are not in the central Russia.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#32

Post by kibwen »

anextio wrote: post #14
bigdict wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Free Ingria […] has potential No, it's a toy movement. > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip Transnistria could play precisely that role.

The Russians have shown that they don't care about holding territory in the short term, see Kherson withdrawal, etc. They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties. If Ukraine goes into Transnistria it will not force Russia to capitulate.

> They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties.

The former, yes. The latter, no.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#33

Post by yucky »

ROTMetro wrote: post #27
FollowingTheDao wrote: post #8

"The current War in Ukraine is, after all, a continuation of what I’ve seen termed the War in the Donbas, which began in April of 2014. " I was happy to read that since it is constantly ignored by American media.

You mean the conflict in Donbas that killed 25 people in 2021, mainly from mines? Hardly justification for Russia's invasion.

Thousands have been killed on both sides of that conflict since 2014, handpicking a temporary downturn in 2021 is a bit disingenuous, no?

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#34

Post by fabian2k »

scohesc wrote: post #22
miguelazo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It really does seem that way... I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point so that Russia can't respond as aggress…

The Ukraine is in Europe, it is on the borders of the EU. And there are other former members of the Soviet Union that are now part of NATO and the EU. This is absolutely a conflict we have an enormous stake in.

Do you think we should not help Ukraine, and not supply them with weapons and leave them to fend for themselves?

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#35

Post by dragonwriter »

retconekt wrote: post #28

"Urban warfare is brutally difficult and has in the past not been a particular strength of the Russian Federation.” Ahem, Stalingrad Cough, splutter, gurgling blood..

> "Urban warfare is brutally difficult and has in the past not been a particular strength of the Russian Federation.”

> Ahem,

> Stalingrad

Ahem,

“Russian Federation”.

Not the same thing as the USSR.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#36

Post by JohnFen »

scohesc wrote: post #22
miguelazo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It really does seem that way... I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point so that Russia can't respond as aggress…

> I wish the west would stay out of conflicts it doesn't have a stake in

I think there's a solid human rights reason to be involved in the way we are. But even ignoring that, I also think we do have a stake in this.

> The fastest way out of the war is negotiation unfortunately

Russia wants no negotiation that doesn't result in them stealing territory from Ukraine. You can't negotiate with that.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#37

Post by JohnFen »

FollowingTheDao wrote: post #8

"The current War in Ukraine is, after all, a continuation of what I’ve seen termed the War in the Donbas, which began in April of 2014. " I was happy to read that since it is constantly ignored by American media.

> since it is constantly ignored by American media.

It is? It seems to be talked about a fair bit for being ignored.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#38

Post by kibwen »

scohesc wrote: post #22
miguelazo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It really does seem that way... I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point so that Russia can't respond as aggress…

> I wish the west would stay out of conflicts it doesn't have a stake in, and I wish Russia would stop attacking Ukraine.

Unfortunately, since the latter has happened, there's no moral high ground to be gained by "staying out" of the conflict. Russia started this war. Russia could end it, today, by leaving.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#39

Post by yks »

scohesc wrote: post #22
miguelazo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It really does seem that way... I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point so that Russia can't respond as aggress…

The West have their own interests surely but this war is fought by Ukrainians on their own collective volition. Negotiation is therefore also should happen on their own volition. Even with the slowly trickling and insufficient Western military aid, Ukrainians still prefer to take a chance to preserve their land, statehood and culture.

People hate the Western MIC for a reason but in the end desire to avoid a genocide has to be stronger than hate for the MIC.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#40

Post by lnsru »

retconekt wrote: post #28

"Urban warfare is brutally difficult and has in the past not been a particular strength of the Russian Federation.” Ahem, Stalingrad Cough, splutter, gurgling blood..

Urban warfare for russians is a no-brainer - level everything to the ground. See leftovers of Grozny.
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