One Year into the War in Ukraine • Hacker News Board

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#11

Post by bigdict » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 9:58 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

> Free Ingria […] has potential

No, it's a toy movement.

> There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip

Transnistria could play precisely that role.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#12

Post by riku_iki » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 10:03 PM UTC

FollowingTheDao wrote: post #9

melling wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn’t most people expect Russian to easily take Ukraine? They are several times bigger, larger military, etc.

[flagged]

putin literally said in his speech at the beginning that the goal is to overthrow "drug addict government". How could they do it without taking over country?

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#13

Post by SketchySeaBeast » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 10:05 PM UTC

FollowingTheDao wrote: post #9

melling wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn’t most people expect Russian to easily take Ukraine? They are several times bigger, larger military, etc.

[flagged]

Putin's stated intentions, which were, and I quote "And for this we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine". So even though they were stated clearly, they made little sense if you assume they aren't trying to take over Ukraine.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#14

Post by anextio » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 10:05 PM UTC

bigdict wrote: post #11

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

> Free Ingria […] has potential No, it's a toy movement. > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip Transnistria could play precisely that role.

The Russians have shown that they don't care about holding territory in the short term, see Kherson withdrawal, etc. They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties. If Ukraine goes into Transnistria it will not force Russia to capitulate.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#15

Post by gerikson » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 10:05 PM UTC

bigdict wrote: post #11

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

> Free Ingria […] has potential No, it's a toy movement. > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip Transnistria could play precisely that role.

Isn't Transnistria legally part of Moldova? Russia can't trade that away against Moldova's wishes, and even if it was to try , it would be against the international law that made the invasion of Ukraine and annexing its territory illegal in the first place.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#16

Post by notahacker » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 10:09 PM UTC

bigdict wrote: post #11

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

> Free Ingria […] has potential No, it's a toy movement. > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip Transnistria could play precisely that role.

Don't really see Transnistria as remotely useful as a bargaining chip. Sure it's propped up by Russia and would eventually be integrated into Russia under Putin's wildest imperial fantasies, but it's not Russia, its people mostly aren't Russian and I'm not sure it's all that valuable either.

All a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria would do is give Putin's claims about Ukrainian aggression some veneer of legitimacy and annoy Moldova, which doesn't want to see something which is constitutionally part of their territory fought over and then bargained back to Russian control...

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#17

Post by anextio » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 10:11 PM UTC

riku_iki wrote: post #12

FollowingTheDao wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

putin literally said in his speech at the beginning that the goal is to overthrow "drug addict government". How could they do it without taking over country?

They don't have to occupy the whole of Ukraine to do that, they only have to defeat Ukraine's military and destroy NATO's materiel on the battlefield. If they intended to occupy the entire country they would need several million troops as well as legions of administrators ready to go, which would be visible.

They most likely only plan to long-term occupy the parts of Ukraine where the majority of the population still living there supports them. The last thing that Russia wants is fighting a never ending insurgency in Lviv oblast.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#18

Post by miguelazo » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 10:12 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

[flagged]

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#19

Post by peyton » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 10:13 PM UTC

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #13

FollowingTheDao wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Putin's stated intentions, which were, and I quote "And for this we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine". So even though they were stated clearly, they made little sense if you assume they aren't trying to take over Ukraine.

What do you mean? His speech [1] is really clear. I’m extremely disappointed in the reporting by the news here.

[1]: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#20

Post by luckylion » Fri, Feb 24, 2023, 10:20 PM UTC

miguelazo wrote: post #18

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

[flagged]

The "just surrender and become one with Russia" diplomatic solutions? Are those solutions final?