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One Year into the War in Ukraine
21–30 of 190 posts
Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine
#22Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…
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It really does seem that way...
I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point so that Russia can't respond as aggressively to western expansionism or continue to meddle in western affairs as strongly as they have been.
I wish the west would stay out of conflicts it doesn't have a stake in, and I wish Russia would stop attacking Ukraine. Unfortunately mentioning the former makes you a "putin-apologist" even though there's more than enough things to attend to in the west instead of sending trillions of dollars overseas and continuing to fund the industrial military complex - almost like it's a convenient excuse to help distract people how much they're getting screwed over at home - but that's getting into conspiracy theorist territory, which I'd rather not go down.
The fastest way out of the war is negotiation unfortunately. It's only going to get bloodier as both sides get more desperate to win...
Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine
#23I remember the BBC News telling viewers it would all be over in 6 weeks!
Not many predicted that Ukraine would hold out so long, especially the Kremlin itself which believed that the most reasonable course of action at the time was to start the invasion even with such a small number of men.
Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine
#24Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…
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Appeasing the aggressors by giving up territories is not going to stop the war long term until there is nothing to give up. Not only history shows it again and again, but the basic psychology behind this is clear after a first encounter with a bully which many people do as soon as kindergarten.
The only outcome of this faux pacifism is the destruction of Ukrainian state with the following butchering of Ukrainian culture AND with the following wars further West. Even though many Americans decided all of a sudden to support Russia in their conquests, Russians did not stop seeing themselves as waging war against the US and the West. And why would they ever stop, if the West keeps giving them what they want.
Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Free Ingria […] has potential No, it's a toy movement. > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip Transnistria could play precisely that role.
Don't really see Transnistria as remotely useful as a bargaining chip. Sure it's propped up by Russia and would eventually be integrated into Russia under Putin's wildest imperial fantasies, but it's not Russia, its people mostly aren't Russian and I'm not sure it's all that valuable either. All a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria would do is give Putin's claims about Ukrainian aggression some veneer of legitimacy a…
>its people mostly aren't Russian
They basically are. They speak Russian and act like Russians. I doubt they'd mind being annexed.
Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Free Ingria […] has potential No, it's a toy movement. > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could take as a bargaining chip Transnistria could play precisely that role.
The Russians have shown that they don't care about holding territory in the short term, see Kherson withdrawal, etc. They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties. If Ukraine goes into Transnistria it will not force Russia to capitulate.
> “They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties.”
???
That’s errr... going poorly.
Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine
#27"The current War in Ukraine is, after all, a continuation of what I’ve seen termed the War in the Donbas, which began in April of 2014. " I was happy to read that since it is constantly ignored by American media.
You mean the conflict in Donbas that killed 25 people in 2021, mainly from mines? Hardly justification for Russia's invasion.
Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine
#28"Urban warfare is brutally difficult and has in the past not been a particular strength of the Russian Federation.”
Ahem,
Stalingrad
Cough, splutter, gurgling blood..
Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine
#29Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…
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Ukraine is a sovereign actor here, it is defending itself against aggression. Of course they accept and demand weapons from the West, because surrendering or losing this war means a lot of death, suffering and loss of freedom.
At the very latest after Bucha it is clear that leaving Ukrainian population under Russian control will cause terrible suffering. So what should they negotiate about, what do you think Ukraine should give up to the aggressor?
Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine
#30Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…
> An independence movement there could be well supported from Europe. Something to think about.