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Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

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Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#351

Post by alienicecream »

pvg wrote: post #342
alienicecream wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Valid point, but I don't think the importance and notoriety of these events are comparable.

Maybe but that's the essence of cherry-picking. It suggests that you aren't actually 'working from nothing towards plausible theories' as you think (and I'm not saying this is intentional or some sort of intellectual or moral failing, we all do this) but working backwards from a conclusion to select supporting points and counterpoints can be dismissed for not being sufficiently countery.

Is not cherry picking to apply relevant heuristics. I'm an average news consumer and I had never heard of your example. I doubt many people have, and probably even fewer care. It's just not as noteworthy as what happened here and that in itself is a factor in analyzing the response to it.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#352

Post by [deleted] »

halothane wrote: post #350
kurthr wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good idea, judge based only on the name of the source, completely captured by narrative and unable to make decisions based any measurable facts they present. Pick a football team and cheer them to victory for surely that's the right way to understand the world, the economy, and geopolitics! Don't read anything from the London Review of Books either since you might not agree with them. It's scary to hear new things. I…

>>>>Good idea, judge based only on the name of the source, completely captured by narrative and unable to make decisions based any measurable facts they present. Pick a football team and cheer them to victory for surely that's the right way to understand the world, the economy, and geopolitics! Lots of words, but nothing that adds to the discussion that the source of your "new things" is a bunch of Tik-Tokers doing a…

[deleted]

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#353

Post by mannerheim »

halothane wrote: post #345
mannerheim wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I threw in the age factor because it's a fact that people's mental faculties diminish as they age. And the Pakistani staged Bin Laden raid, Opus Dei in the USMC, and the Turks using chemical weapons in Syria? How convenient that everything that doesn't corroborate his fairy tales is just more proof of the cover up.

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Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#354

Post by halothane »

Mizza wrote: post #143
kurthr wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, in the last decade he's kinda blown it with multiple claims in Syria. Statements that are either unbelievable, undocumented and easily could be (like building locations), or basically falsified have really brought down his trust. Even if he's just getting bad information rather than coming from a particular angle, his readers deserve better vetting of the material. At some point it feels like he's being driven…

Bellingcat is a way for UK/US spies to launder intelligence, a bootleg Wikileaks that won't challenge domestic power structures. I wouldn't point to them if I wanted my point to be taken seriously.

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Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#355

Post by halothane »

ninjagoo wrote: post #168
Mizza wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bellingcat is a way for UK/US spies to launder intelligence, a bootleg Wikileaks that won't challenge domestic power structures. I wouldn't point to them if I wanted my point to be taken seriously.

> I wouldn't point to them if I wanted my point to be taken seriously. Bellingcat have a significant proven track record [1] and have won significant awards for their reporting, including the Investigative Reporting Award from the European Press Prize [2]. Do you have evidence for your counter-claim that they should not be taken seriously? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellingcat#Notable_cases [2] https://en.wiki…

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Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#356

Post by halothane »

kurthr wrote: post #292
halothane wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haha, Bellingcat is your source vs a Pulitzer Prize journalist who may have fallen out of favor with a particular crowd, and you want the comment to be taken seriously? Not all us drink Koolaid. Here's a link to your link - about Brown Moses, an unemployed man from Leicester, England ( https://www.cjr.org/business_of_news/bellingcat_brown_moses.... )

Good idea, judge based only on the name of the source, completely captured by narrative and unable to make decisions based any measurable facts they present. Pick a football team and cheer them to victory for surely that's the right way to understand the world, the economy, and geopolitics! Don't read anything from the London Review of Books either since you might not agree with them. It's scary to hear new things. I…

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Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#357

Post by red-iron-pine »

gerikson wrote: post #317
KMag wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. The most plausible explanation, given the number of Russian petrochemical executives critical of Putin who have died under suspicious circumstances, is that Putin wanted to greatly reduce the incentive of petrochemical oligarchs to stage a coup in order to re-open the pipeline. Putin has shown he's very wary of the petrochemical oligarchs. If removing Putin from power doesn't open Nord Stream back up, then tha…

This is my theory too. Putin blowing up the pipeline serves a number of purposes: - removes options from a potential opposition within Russia - reminds nations around the Baltic that Russia has undetectable underwater assets - serves to potentially split NATO members (Hersh's story is obviously part of that)

> - serves to potentially split NATO members (Hersh's story is obviously part of that)

this is the big one. I can't see a reason why the US even the UK would blow the pipelines, esp. when they already have a very strong NATO rallying cry, and Putin turning off the gas already means N. American Oil & Gas will be making big money.

Like, you're already winning, why risk a disaster and blowback? Meanwhile Putin has shown, consistently, that he's capable and willing to play dirty like that, and can actively spite the Baltics and Scandinavia.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#358

Post by fishnchips »

jdougan wrote: post #344
fishnchips wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historical grievances aside, no middleman likes being cut out.

That was intended to come under current motivations, but I should have been more explicit. What else are the other Poles around you annoyed about in this situation? Do most think Polish agencies were responsible?

Most folks I know believe it was the US. They think that our leadership lacks the cojones and our military lacks the capability. I believe neither to be true, though I’d imagine there must have been an implicit approval from major NATO partners. Take France for example - Germany getting cheap fossil fuels isn’t exactly great for the French economy.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#359

Post by kneel »

astrange wrote: post #303
kneel wrote: post #129

I'd take any reports done by a self described "OSINT Researcher" with a heavy grain of salt.

It's well known that amateur OSINT researchers are some of the most reliable people around these days. As long as they aren't Redditors anyway.

Independent journalists vs state funded 'Intel' groups

When it comes to critiquing the government I'm going to balance their incentives.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#360

Post by shagie »

mandevil wrote: post #167
xyzelement wrote: post #157

I didn't read Hersh's essay, I did read this and found it logical. BUT independently from these two writeups, the thing that doesn't make any sense is the idea that Russian would blow up their own pipeline. It is an asset they fully control. The idea that they damaged their own asset "to show the world they are serious" or whatever is about as likely as "to threaten Alice, Bob shot off his own foot." Is it possible?…

As I've argued before, the issue here is that invading Ukraine doesn't really make any sense from the Russian perspective. They've lost so much money in trade, their army is shattered, their soft-power is in shambles, and they've pissed off even the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine that used to view them as friends. This is why there was a lot of dissension in the West over a year ago about whether the Russians woul…

> As I've argued before, the issue here is that invading Ukraine doesn't really make any sense from the Russian perspective.

In the mode of lay person channeling Russian leadership...

Russia is facing a demographic crisis. Their population pyramid is going the wrong way ( https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2020/ ). They are on the path of losing population.

What's more, the ethic Russians are declining faster than others. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Russia#Future...

> The ethnic demographic mix of the Russian Federation is projected to change far into the future. The majority population, ethnic Russians, who have been in slight decline since the 1950's will decline further due to a below replacement fertility rate and population ageing. In 2010, rough population projections from Ivan Beloborodov projecting to 2030 estimated that the percentage of Russians within the population would decrease to around 70 to 60% of the total population.

So... how do you fix this? You appropriate a country that is ethnically similar to Russia. If this isn't done willingly, while acting as an occupying force, you deport (import?) the children to Russia which could have the effect of delaying the fertility decline of ethic Russians. https://www.npr.org/2023/02/14/1156500561/russia-ukraine-chi...

I fully admit that this is a just so story ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just-so_story ) for the reasoning behind Russia's policy towards Ukraine. It is a last ditch attempt by a the ethnic group in power to prop up its future majority in a country that is losing people and if nothing is done to rectify its future will become an (even more) sparsely populated petro-state fracturing on ethic lines where the current leadership would be in the minority... and eghads is that ever a run on sentence.

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