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Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

oalexanderdk.substack.com

281–290 of 439 posts

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#281

I've read both this paper and the original Seymour Hersh article. I found the abundance of details a bit weird, to be honest, but not enough to discount the credibility of the thesis. On the other hand, this paper is poorly constructed, mostly using straw man techniques and sleight of hands to discredit the original paper. I think it's doing the opposite of what it is trying to achieve, adding free publicity on top.

Same. I was hoping for something compelling to refute. This piece is trash and it’s a sad comment on the state of critical thinking (and liberal simping for empire) that it even garnered this much traction on HN.

> liberal simping for empire

To me, there are few issues more overlooked than this stuff. Structurally there's no mainstream constituency that'd critique it or even point it out, of course, but still. Crazy under the radar but right out in the open at the same time.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Nice! Love how you threw in the age factor there Buster. Yep, Seymour sure got his basic facts wrong during the Vietnam War, Watergate scandal, Abu Ghraib and more. I'd rather have him report on our state of the world than Brown Moses's team of Tik Tok experts or for that matter Team Jorge, unless you are one of them?

I threw in the age factor because it's a fact that people's mental faculties diminish as they age.

And the Pakistani staged Bin Laden raid, Opus Dei in the USMC, and the Turks using chemical weapons in Syria? How convenient that everything that doesn't corroborate his fairy tales is just more proof of the cover up.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a lot missing from this account such as: The US promising not to expand NATO beyond Germany. The Maidan coup in 2014. The Minsk agreement where Kiev agreed to stop bombing the Donbas but has still killed over 14K people doing so. The Ruble is strong and Russia's GDP will grow more than the UK this year.

Don't forget the US breach of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and the Defensive Alliance NATO (and Clinton) deposing Ghadafi after he got rid of his nukes.

“Deposing Ghadafi after he got rid of his nukes”

(1) Gaddafi never had nukes, only nuclear material, technology, and some parts of the tech pipeline.

(2) Gaddafi never abided by the 2003 treaty and retained some of the nuclear material and equipment (which he had already agreed to export) as of 2009. Even after the 2011 revolution, the IAEA confirmed that Libya still had yellow cake after the revolution

(3) NATO waited until after Libya was already in civil war to engage.

I’m not saying NATO was in the right, but you are wrong on most of the facts and Gaddafi didn’t abide by the treaty, so I’m not sure why you would cite that as an example.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disarmament_of_Libya

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#284
post #37
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd still give Hersh the benefit of the doubt he's not just listening to some internet troll type person. There has to be some reputation at play here for him to take it seriously. The odds are high it's someone connected to the US or NATO govs. At least you'd assume so. As another commenter mentioned, he claimed he used to the same fact checkers used by The New Yorker.

I would not give him the benefit of the doubt, and I have a hard time understanding why anybody would; there is more than ample reason to doubt any story he runs. I can't imagine a credible source working with him, so far has the presumption of accuracy been shifted on his work over the last 10 years. That's why a famous journalist is reduced to running stories from unnamed (and implausible) sources in the first plac…

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Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m guessing that ForEx ratio is highly dependent upon where you are when you trade it and I would wager the volumes are low or non-existent in any country that has sanctioned Russian exports like oil, gas, and metals.

After the US seized Russian assets Russia started selling oil in Rubles. This forces its customers such as India and China to first buy Rubles usually with dollars.

You just supported my points.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#286

I didn't read Hersh's essay, I did read this and found it logical. BUT independently from these two writeups, the thing that doesn't make any sense is the idea that Russian would blow up their own pipeline. It is an asset they fully control. The idea that they damaged their own asset "to show the world they are serious" or whatever is about as likely as "to threaten Alice, Bob shot off his own foot." Is it possible?…

As I've argued before, the issue here is that invading Ukraine doesn't really make any sense from the Russian perspective. They've lost so much money in trade, their army is shattered, their soft-power is in shambles, and they've pissed off even the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine that used to view them as friends. This is why there was a lot of dissension in the West over a year ago about whether the Russians woul…

Ukraine had signed the Minsk agreements only to buy time to build their military to NATO standards. Petro Poroshenko and Angela Merkel have admitted as much. With the US promised them backing they believed that they could be victorious even if Russia intervened.

Armed with this information they were planning and preparing to take back Donbass by force. OSCE data shows increased activity and casualties on the Donbass side in the days leading up to the invasion. Remember how Ukraine was constantly pleading for a no-fly zone? They had likely been counting on it (false promises), that the US and NATO would jump in and give them the upper hand.

At this point Russia couldn't really have let the ethnic Russians there lose and die in large numbers with the remainders getting assimilated through Ukrainization as this would've been quite a bad look back home (Russia has always protected ethnic Russians in other countries) and so it was more or less forced to act. The US knew this and still pushed for it. It was certainly not an unprovoked aggression. Remember Euromaidan where it was portrayed as all of Ukraine protesting? It was actually closer to a 50/50 split (population vote) between EU and the Russian customs union in late 2013.

As for Russia losing much? Compared to Ukraine and Europe (who are the big losers here, Ukraine for obvious reasons and Europe financially and industrially) not so much at all. Since 2014, when the sanctions actually made a decent impact, Russia had spent all this time hardening their economy. Living standards of Russians hasn't really changed, aside from some foreign products that aren't available anymore and many already have Russian replacements. They have managed to switch their exports towards Asia and India (and actually made more profits than before). Sure there are things that will take time to adapt and will be costly in the long run but still nothing compared to the problems Europe is facing, barely managing to fill up its gas reserves for this winter.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#287
post #46

How easy would it be for a military or intelligence service to fake this data? I don't really have any experience or idea on how reliable these signals are for something like this

Countervailing OSINT data isn't the only problem with the story Hersh is telling; a deeper problem is that the whole scheme doesn't make much sense. The author links to a more expansive debunking at the top of his story (it's a better link than the one we're reading now, because it incorporates all this Norwegian minesweeper OSINT), and the bulk of it is just observations about how dumb this mission structure is. Imp…

The same Bellingcat started by an unemployed man from Leicester, England - "perhaps the foremost expert on ammunitions used in Syria"? I've been reading most of your comments and they all lack details and real evidence, but a lot of character assassination thrown in. I love your writing style, though. Check.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Russians can articulate a logical reason for the war: in their perception, Ukraine was becoming unacceptably close to the West/NATO and they took a gamble to prevent it. Whether the gamble will pay off, we'll see. But I can follow the logic - risk for a chance at upside. What's the upside of blowing up your own pipeline and then denying it?

Putin’s statement the night of the invasion: [1] [1] https://www.c-span.org/video/?518097-2/russian-president-put...

Exactly, the NATO stuff is nonsense from Westerners who are trying to backform a rationale to support Russia, that directly contradicts the motives of Russia. Those who now claim NATO as justification for Russia's aggression were also saying that Russia would not invade as the US predicted, right up until it happened. For true motivations, your video is spot on, and see for example Putin's 2021 essay which was basically a declaration of war:

https://huri.harvard.edu/news/putin-historical-unity

And Russian TV since then has shown that the entire society is being mobilized in similar ways into embracing genocide, such as here:

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/16262669917396664...

Claiming that Russia is somehow justified in their imperialism is basically admitting to complete ignorance of Russia, it's aggressions, and it's goals.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#289
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Countervailing OSINT data isn't the only problem with the story Hersh is telling; a deeper problem is that the whole scheme doesn't make much sense. The author links to a more expansive debunking at the top of his story (it's a better link than the one we're reading now, because it incorporates all this Norwegian minesweeper OSINT), and the bulk of it is just observations about how dumb this mission structure is. Imp…

The same Bellingcat started by an unemployed man from Leicester, England - "perhaps the foremost expert on ammunitions used in Syria"? I've been reading most of your comments and they all lack details and real evidence, but a lot of character assassination thrown in. I love your writing style, though. Check.

Did you see me call Bellingcat "perhaps the foremost expert on ammunitions used in Syria"? Because I didn't see me calling them that. But you might have a better vantage point than I do.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#290
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely agree. He has a Pulitzer Prize, five Polk awards, two national magazine awards. Broke My Lai, Abu Ghraib, and exposed the Israeli nuclear program. He is easily the most accomplished journalist for several generations. That doesn’t automatically mean this story is right but to dismiss him in emotional and inaccurate terms doesn’t speak to a rational, evidence-based interpretation of the facts.

Seymour Hersh has also gone off the deep end lately. Some current examples[1]: * the Osama bin Laden raid was faked in a conspiracy with Pakistan and he was actually captured in 2006 * much of the US special forces is controlled by secret members of Opus Dei * that the US military flew Iranian terrorists to Nevada for training * the 2013 chemical weapons attack in Syria was a "false flag" staged by the government of…

We live in a world where the CIA has a heart attack gun [1], a presidential administration faked evidence of WMD to go to war in Iraq, the CDC conducted secret medical torture on black men with syphilis, and the Pentagon sent JFK proposals to justify a war on Cuba by conducting false flag terrorist attacks against American civilians [2]. (JFK rejected them, apparently.)

So I read a list like yours, and read you scoffing at the implausibility of any of those things, and I remember just how different we all can be.

[1] https://www.military.com/video/guns/pistols/cias-secret-hear...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods

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